Does anyone know if the oil IS really pumping? Really being loaded on tankers? Really being run thru a refinery? I have heard there were no problems in the oil industry, but...

-- Rob (becida@the-bridge.net), January 03, 2000

Answers

Actually, I'm a bit more concerned about the sun. I haven't seen it here in about an hour. SUPPOSEDLY it's still shining and the earth has just turned and you can't see it, but how can I be sure?

Every site I've checked insists that it's going to "rise" tomorrow morning, but boy, if it doesn't, it's gonna be MIGHTY cold!

-- John Krempasky (johnk@dmv.com), January 03, 2000.

See prior thread about Nigerian pipeline shutdown ("not y2k-related").

http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002Csx

-- Bruce (Don't shoot@me.I'm just the messenger), January 03, 2000.

We don't know.

And they ain't saying.

---...---...---

At stake is every step in the crude oil and chemical process: drilling (which could be delayed and is only a small step), pumping, storage, piping, delivery, measuring, transhipment, shipping, refining, transhipping, off-loading, refining (again) internal shipping, and through it all measuring, counting, and paying for it ......

Question related really to the entire "chain" in every country supplying Europe and the US oil: Saudi, Kuwait, Venezula, Mexico, Malaysia, Russia, Kazastan, .... North Sea, North Slope, Canada, Carribbean, etc. Each country could succeed or fail independently of the rest.

Every diffe

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 03, 2000.

Oh John...puleeeeeze spoil us with more of your intellect.

I just realized why God put Trolls and Pollies on the planet- It's a example to the rest of the world to keep us thankful we're not such morons. Thank you Lord! Thank you!

-- Satanta (EventHoriz@n.com), January 03, 2000.

We don't know.

And they ain't saying.

So the "great conspiracy" continues, eh?

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/ 000103/bp.html

Monday January 3, 4:52 am Eastern Time

REPEAT-World energy flows trouble free after Y2K

By William Maclean

LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - From Australia to Alaska, world energy producers pumped smoothly away on Saturday with strategic oil and gas flows uninterrupted by the much-feared Y2K bug.

Oil consuming nations breathed a sigh of relief after potential troublespots Iraq and Russia and key OPEC powers in the Gulf, Africa and Latin America passed an uneventful night.

``It's a green light across the world,'' said David Knapp, head of the markets division of the International Energy Agency (IEA), as the West's energy watchdog stepped down its monitoring operations. ``We have recorded no incidents.''

The IEA and the U.S. Department of Energy said there was no need to release emergency stockpiles of oil they had readied in case computer bugs caused a shortfall of energy supplies.

``There were no problems, no shortages and no reason for IEA member countries to mobilise their reserves,'' the IEA said at noon Paris time (1100 GMT) on Saturday. It said it had been prepared if necessary to unleash up to two million barrels a day.

The nearest the computer-dependent international energy system came to a hint of a problem was an adjustment made by Turkey on the monitoring system on an Iraqi oil pipeline.

Turkey said it had set the date on the computerised system to 1995 from 1999 to avoid potential millennium bug problems.

Iraq pumps oil down the pipeline under a U.N.-monitored oil- for-food deal to provide aid for its people, under U.N. trade sanctions imposed after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

IRAQ GREEN LIGHT

As things turned out, Iraq oil production and exports flowed normally over the turn of the millennium, Baghdad said.

Multinationals producing in Nigeria said on Saturday they had experienced no problems from the millennium bug.

Nigeria -- whose light, sweet crudes are important for U.S. East Coast refineries -- had been seen as a potential source of Y2K problems because of the frequently chaotic infrastructure in Africa's most populous nation.

The millennium computer problem, known as the Y2K bug, stems from mainly older computer systems which were programmed to read only the last two digits of a year. It was feared systems might misread 2000 as 1900, causing systems to malfunction or crash.

Key systems given the all clear included output from Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer and exporter, OPEC's number two Iran, the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline connecting the Red Sea and the Mediterranean and Russia's Druzbha oil and gas export pipeline to eastern Europe..

North Sea crude systems including international pricing benchmark Brent and its loading terminal Sullom Voe in Scotland's Shetland islands were quickly given the green light.

STATE, COMMERCIAL TITANS TROUBLE FREE

State-owned oil titans such as Saudi Aramco, Venezuela's Petroleos de Venezuela and Mexico's Petroleos Mexicanos -- all key suppliers to the United States, the world's largets energy market -- reported no problems. Privately-owned supermajors Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM - news) Royal Dutch/Shell (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: SHEL.L) and BP Amoco (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: BPA.L), also pronounced themselves trouble-free.

In Alaska, the last oil province to enter the new millennium, dominant producer BP Amoco pronounced the all clear.

``The screen looks green all across the world -- no operational impacts,'' a company spokesman said.

The IEA, grouping the world's major industrialised nations, said in December that it was confident preparations for computer date rollovers on January 1, 2000 would minimise risks to the global energy sector. But concerns had risen among oil consuming nations about the possible impact of the bug because of a sharp rise this year in world oil prices. Supply curbs implemented by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil exporters have sliced spare inventories and driven prices to $25 a barrel for North Sea Brent.

The IEA said steps had been planned by member countries to deal with any residual Y2K problems and it was prepared for collective emergency measures in the event they were needed.

But IEA deputy executive director William Ramsay told Reuters shortly before midnight in Paris: ``I don't see any particular reason (to tap emergency stocKs). There are no discernible shortfalls in oil.''

IEA member states are mandated to hold oil stocks of more than three billion barrels for release in the event of an emergency. The reserves were last released when Kuwaiti and Iraqi supplies were suspended after Baghdad's invasion of Kuwait in the 1990-1991 Gulf crisis.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), January 03, 2000.

I did go out to the high pressure natural gas line that is on our property and I did hear it going through. You can hear something and it sounded like it always does. My .02.... I wanted to know enough to walk through the wet weeds today. I still don't believe it. But hey, hubby gets a lot of homemade bread this year and bean soup. Jo

-- Jo (tj4261@geneseo.net), January 03, 2000.

The IEA is a reputable organization and I've often used its website for checking on Y2K-related oil issues. Based on the above news article posted by Hoffmeister, I'd say the oil industry is doing quite well, Y2K-wise.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), January 03, 2000.

Hoffmeister,

Thanks for the post. Very good news indeed.

-- trafficjam (road@construction.ahead), January 03, 2000.

Robert? Oh Robert, where are you? Santana?

How quick they are to mock and deny, and how quick they are to vanish when wrong. As a study in strength of character, this forum is becoming highly entertaining.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 03, 2000.

Don't believe everything you read. Especially these days.

I'm not even certain I would trust the futures markets at this point. That being said, THEY will be your best barometer of any disruptions. I will know more tommorrow when I get back to work.

All you pollies keep declaring victory. I love the sound of it. Like meewing cattle.

Don't you feel better that you chose not to side on the risk averse position, thereby potentially endangering your loved ones? You people continue to make me sick. And ridiculing anyone for preparing for a potential risk is pathetic.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.

The truth comes out at the gas pump. If price decline, oil is being pumped, if it rises,then for any number of reasons it is not getting pumped.

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), January 03, 2000.

I completely agree that the price of oil will tell us if it is being pumped. If the price is about the same or lower at the end of the month, there are no major production problems.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.

Flint, you were the one predicting Bophal's and Chernobyl's (while in the next breath saying everything would be fine). I OTOH, said that the most likely outcome was an economic depression caused by the confluence of y2k related disruption and the staggering debt/speculative bubble.

As it stands, on Day 3 of y2k, the embed problem seems under control, and your fears of industrial meltdown seem unwarranted. Whether or not the 'system of systems' will be able to continue the high stakes juggling act of running the world's economies however, is yet to be determined.

-- a (a@a.a), January 03, 2000.

Does this mean that the declaration of "force majeure" by Shell in Nigeria stems from an attack by terrorists (they say no Y2k bug?) It seems misleading, as it says there were no Y2k problems at the other two installations, leading one to believe that might have been at the first mentioned place. Then the comment at the bottom seems to imply that "maybe" an attack had occurred. Why don't they come out and say the line was sabotaged??? Figure it for yourself.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000103/ba.html

******************

Monday January 3, 3:36 am Eastern Time

Shell says Nigeria oil force majeure, no Y2K link

A Shell source from Warri said the trunk line serving Opukushi, Ogbotobo and Tunu flowstations had been forced to close with the loss of up to 120,000 bpd in production.

The Shell official in Lagos said it the company faced no Y2K problems at either Forcados or its other export terminal at southeastern Bonny.

Declaring force majeure means Shell cannot guarantee to meet all its previous export commitments at Forcados.

Shell and other oil firms working in the volatile Niger Delta have faced an upsurge of attacks on oil installations in recent years which have forced repeated disruptions to oil production.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), January 03, 2000.

I am answering my own question - just found this follow-up. I don't understand why villagers would want to shut down a line - isn't it in their interest to keep the oil flowing?

******************************

Monday January 3, 6:30 am Eastern Time

FOCUS-Communities not Y2K bug Nigerian oil production

By Matthew Tostevin

LAGOS, Jan 3 (Reuters) - It was communities living in age-old poverty and not the Y2K technology bug that disrupted Nigerian oil exports on Monday after prophesies of millennium chaos proved false.

Royal Dutch/Shell (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: SHEL.L) sources from the southern town of Warri said the oil giant had been forced by villagers to shut a pipe carrying 120,000 barrels per day (bpd) -- or almost one fifth of its Nigerian production.

``We have declared a force majeure at Forcados terminal that will mean delays to loadings through January,'' said a Shell official in Lagos.

With output of up to two million bpd, Nigeria is normally OPEC's sixth largest oil exporter and its light, sweet crudes are particularly important for U.S. east coast refineries.

Its chaotic infrastructure had prompted warnings of possible oil disruptions as a result of the millennium bug which might have caused some older computers to malfunction at the rollover from 1999 to 2000.

But the multinationals operating joint ventures with state-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation said they were as prepared in Nigeria as anywhere else.

Shell (quote from Yahoo! UK & Ireland: SHEL.L), Exxon-Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM - news), Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CHV - news), Agip , Elf-Aquitaine and Texaco (NYSE:TX - news) told Reuters independently they had no problem at the weekend.

TROUBLED DELTA REGION

Dealing with community unrest is a lot more difficult for either the oil giants or President Olusegun Obasanjo than fixing computer bugs.

Niger Delta unrest which began in demands for a greater share of the region's oil wealth in the early 1990s has spiralled into regular attacks on oil firms to demand money, often resulting in lost production.

A bill for a regional development commission proposed to parliament by Obasanjo shortly after he took office in May to end 15 years of military rule has already been rejected by many villagers who say they were not consulted.

Several oil firms said in private there had been fewer disturbances after Obasanjo approved the storming of the town of Odi by soldiers in November to root out ethnic Ijaw youths held responsible for killing police.

But the operation which destroyed Odi and left dozens of civilians dead horrified Nigerians and foreigners alike. Local rights groups warned any respite would be temporary.

``Everyone is really hoping for a better year this year if the development bill gets through and things really start moving,'' said an official with a U.S. firm whose own operations have been disrupted in the past.

``I guess even if things get better these disruptions won't end overnight though,'' he said.

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), January 03, 2000.

'a':

Kinda weak there. I was really worried, and prepared. Over the course of time, I studied more, learned better, and got more optimistic. Not exactly with the next breath, but who needs accuracy to make a false argument, right?

Meanwhile, YOU continued to mock, and now you seem to be backpedaling like mad. But still trying to mock. I'm sure someday the economy will sputter, making you feel ever so much better. For now, why not celebrate a bit? The most immediate threats have passed, and the world has hummed through an entire business day without undue incident. Cleanup promises to be mild. Smile for a change, rather than trying to laugh at someone else. Can you?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), January 03, 2000.

Flint- Have you figured it out yet?? Failures are occuring. We are not being told about some of them. The Gov. lied about a couple so far that we have found out about(spy sats, Nuke reactors).

IF you believe the government so much, how come you don't believe Kosky when he warns that we will see problems happening for weeks??

It ain't called the YEAR 2000 problem for nothin'.

-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), January 03, 2000.