http://www.bloomberg.com/

WHAT??!! No euphoria over whipping the Bug?

Polly wanna doodle all the day...?

-- Frank Lee ( I dont give a damn) (ibuy@halfoff.com), January 03, 2000

Answers

So. . .

The dow is going down today because of stockholders selling like mad because of all the bad y2k news that only they know about?

And not because of typical beginning of the year profit taking and anticipation of an inevitable rate hike (which was put off by y2k fear which has been squashed).

-- Mike (mike@noemail.net), January 03, 2000.

"Typical profit-taking"?

Didn't happen last January...the one before last.....the one before that.

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), January 03, 2000.

We had a major bull-run last week, no? So maybe it's time to cash out?

But you're probably right, there's been secutiry leaks in the spin machine so everyone's selling like mad because of the reports of the supply chain and oil supply failing, that only the investors know about.

And not the threat of a rate hike.

-- Mike (mike@noamil.net), January 03, 2000.

http://app.marketwatch.com/intl/default.asp

Looking at UP percentages esp Asia as in India, Singapore and DOWN percentages in Germany, Italy and USA.

I suspect something big is brewing. Some possibilities:

a. Flight from Quality - Asian moneymen pulling assets from safe havens in Europe and US and repatriating into home exchange. Or,

b. Bigtime Y2K problems - Germany (Down 2.98%), Italy (Down 3.04%).

If this continues it is not a BITR.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 03, 2000.

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Bill P.,

Why do you think this has to do with y2k? Because the investors Know Something We Don't.

It's starting to become an old excuse.

Here're the words of a market analyst (courtesy of msnbc): INVESTORS FLUSH WITH CASH What will Wall Street bring in 2000? CNBCs Alan Chernoff previews the markets year ahead.

With government officials declaring that humankind had triumphed over the crazy quilt of technology on which it increasingly depends, financial analysts expected Wall Street to continue its record run, despite Mondays pullback.

Theres a lot going for us, said Alan Ackerman, market strategist at Fahnestock & Co. Many investors and traders are willing to let their winners run. Institutional investors who largely sat on the sidelines for the final trading days of 1999 were poised to re-enter, leading to optimistic projections. We start a whole new year; people are flush with cash. That money is going to seek a home in the markets, said Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments.

Oh no, they've gotten to him too! More spin.

-- Mike (mike@noemail.net), January 03, 2000.

Another possible explanation:

c. Absence of Big Money investors creating increased volatility as it is too early for them to buy in while others are getting out.

D. Interest Rates expected to rise in USA:

Fed Rate Rise Looms As Y2K Fears Fade By Knut Engelmann

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Investors breathed a sigh of relief Monday over the uneventful passing of the millennium bug, but celebrations were overshadowed by mounting fears that U.S. interest rates may rise yet again as early as next month.

As the century date change came and went in world financial markets without causing any real glitches, Federal Reserve policymakers were poised to turn their focus back on the roaring U.S. economy -- and on preparing the ground for the year's first rate rise at their next meeting on Feb. 1-2.

``As long as the U.S. economy shows strong growth in domestic demand and tight labor markets, the Fed will tighten in February,'' said Mickey Levy, chief financial economist at Bank of America Securities in New York.

Officials at the powerful U.S. central bank signaled as much at their last meeting in December, when they left key rates unchanged to ensure a smooth transition into the new year but vowed to revisit their position in February, saying they were still worried about ``inflationary imbalances.''

That gives the Fed a free hand to nudge up rates once again, building on last year's three rate rises, which took the federal funds rate on overnight bank loans to 5.5 percent from 4.75 percent at the start of the year. The rate determines the cost of borrowing across the U.S. economy and far beyond.

While last year's moves made credit a bit more expensive to the average American and slowed some of the more rate-sensitive sectors of the economy -- such as housing -- they have had scant impact on other areas that remain right at the top of the Fed's inflation watch list.

BUYING CHEAP INSURANCE

``There's no indication that growth has slowed since the Fed has begun to raise rates and the labor market, if anything, has continued to tighten,'' said Sung Won Sohn, chief economist at Wells Fargo Bank in Minneapolis.

What's more, just two months before the economy reaches the status of the longest U.S. expansion in history, consumers kept spending like there was no tomorrow and stock prices staged a dramatic year-end rally. In that environment, few think that a gradual rise in interest rates can do any harm.

``A rate rise in February would buy the Fed a very cheap insurance policy,'' said former Fed governor Lyle Gramley, who now advises the Mortgage Bankers Association. ``A quarter-point rise is not going to put this economy back by a large degree.''

That's why most economists expect the Fed, which typically likes to move in incremental steps, to raise rates for a second time this year in March. A fed funds rate at six percent by the first half of the year is a firm bet for most observers.

After that point, the picture is a little more murky. Some analysts speculate Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will want to get his tightening moves out of the way early in the year so as to avoid any overlap with the presidential election in November.

But others insist that in the end, it will be up to the U.S. consumer and stock market to convince Greenspan that he does not need to raise rates any further. Should consumers rein in their spending after the year-end holiday extravaganza, and should the stock market get back to more realistic levels, the Fed may well decide to hold its fire later on the year.

``The Fed will base its decisions on what it thinks is needed to keep the economy going without overheating,'' said Bank of America's Levy, adding that two rate rises should be enough to force the economy back on a more sustainable path.

U.S. financial markets, for their part, have firmly priced in a rate rise in February, and a good chance of another tightening in March.

Fears of higher credit costs hurt the Dow Jones industrial average Monday, driving it down by more than one percent by mid-afternoon. Inflation-sensitive bond prices fell sharply.

``The only question is how much more the Fed will have to do to slow down the runaway train,'' said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pa.. ``It could be more than most people currently expect.'' Reut14:54 01-03-00

Source: http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_news.asp?textpath=d: \www\nasdaq\news\rn\2000\01\03\RN200451AT625.html

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), January 03, 2000.