Millennium bug could still attack supply chains

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Millennium bug could still attack supply chains

By Neil Winton

LONDON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Big banks and well financed companies have apparently thwarted the millennium computer bug, but big manufacturers which rely on complex global supply chains could still be vulnerable, experts said on Monday.

The world breathed a sigh of relief as it became obvious over the New Year weekend that the millennium bug was not going to spread chaos and mayhem.

As midnight came and went across the world, lights stayed on, bank machines continued to spew out cash, water taps flowed and planes remained in the sky.

Many financial markets opened for business on Monday after the holiday with few noticeable problems with their computers.

But according to Chris Webster, head of Year 2000 services for Cap Gemini , it is too soon to relax. Small companies which supply critical components to big western manufacturers are still in jeopardy from the bug.

IT'S NOT OVER YET

"I don't think we are out of the woods yet," Webster said in an interview.

Over the weekend, during the euphoria which greeted an almost bug-free new millennium, Bill Gates, chief executive of software giant Microsoft Corp , warned there would be glitches in the coming weeks. "There is still a little mess that will have to be cleaned up," Gates said during an interview on Saturday evening on Cable News Network's "Larry King Live" programme. "It's not going to be catastrophic, but there will be a lot of snafus."

Big manufacturers of complicated products like cars, computers or pharmaceuticals use components from countries all around the world. China has become important for a whole range of products assembled in Europe and north America. Taiwan is an important provider of electronic chips.

General Motors has about 4,500 suppliers for its cars, pick-up trucks and commercial vehicles, depending on a huge pyramid of ever smaller organisations. If only one company fails to deliver, the whole process can be torpedoed. If a little company fails to deliver the 10 cent metal holder to display the maker's badge, the car can't be shipped.

Many small companies have spent very little on fighting the bug, which can make computers programmed with double digit dates trip over the zeros in "2000" and crash, or produce faulty data.

LONG SUPPLY CHAINS COULD BE WEAK LINK

Cap Gemini's Webster worries that these companies might provide the millennium bug with a fertile breeding ground.

"Snall companies are basically more exposed and could still be a problem. These long, complex supply chains are still a risk which hasn't gone away and I won't be comfortable about that until at least half way through the year," he said. Webster said the chances of a millennium computer meltdown were always slim. The biggest danger was of databases being gradually damaged. This unseen action might fool companies analysing their performance into thinking they were making profits when they were in fact losing money.

"Companies must be extra vigilant, certainly through January, then there's the leap year of course, and the next couple of quarters as well," Webster said.

Fons Kuijpers, member of the management group of PA Consulting, acknowledged that there was a theoretical supply chain threat, but reckoned companies had taken adequate steps.

SPREADING OUT SUPPLIERS

"They have either sourced from a number of different suppliers or have spread out sourcing of some key ingredients," Kuijpers said.

Kuijpers said he had been worried before January 1 that an epidemic of crashing computers would drain away the expertise needed to fix them quickly.

"There was one scenario we worried about. What if there was mayhem, companies might have to wait for weeks for advice. But it hasn't happened. Things look fine, but don't close down the emergency arrangements yet. At the end of this week maybe you can stand things down in a big way," Kuijpers said.

Cap Gemini's Webster said the biggest threat from the bug was always that of a domino effect on networks generally rather than to computers in particular.

"Systematic implications of Y2K were always bigger than the problem itself. The major issue was how would things interact in supply chains. Look at banking; that's why banks were so careful to prepare beforehand," Webster said.

====================================== End

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), January 03, 2000

Answers

So this is the big conspiracy of the media/all world governments trying to cover up the truth of Y2K?

-- Realist (don't@want.spam), January 03, 2000.

"Millennium bug could still attack supply chains"

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/000103/ex.html


-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), January 03, 2000.

"could still attack" HAH!

It IS NOW attacking, at unknown levels, with results that we won't see for a few days, a week or two, or a couple months. I've seen railroad computer code - some of those folks are doomed. The question is: How bad will the damage be? We'll have the answer by June or so.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), January 03, 2000.


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