Jim Lord's Perspective on the Y2K rollover

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Well, weve seen Y2K roll its way across the world without crashing the big infrastructure systems of any country. The lights are on; the telephones work; there are no serious problems in sight. This is wonderful news. When Russia, China and India survived the rollover, I breathed a huge sigh of relief. Major infrastructure failures in any of those countries would have meant incredible human suffering and near incalculable geopolitical difficulties. The implications are certainly positive for us here in the United States. The possibility of massive infrastructure failure here now seems very small although I dont think were entirely out of the woods.

Do these positive indications mean Y2K is over and Jim Lord (Hyatt, North, Yourdon, et.al.) blew it? CNN certainly thinks so. They and the rest of the mainstream media have already proclaimed victory. The federal government is still cautiousthey wont commit til Monday afternoon or so. I think one should pause a bit before leaping to any conclusions. Many important systems all over the world have not yet been turned on or brought up to full operating capacity.

Y2K is a football game and this weekend is just the kickoff. The opening play has been exciting and highly positive but were not going to know who won until the game is over. Except for my wife, everybody in the world knows that the Denver Broncos won the Super Bowl last year. Does anyone remember what happened on the opening kickoff of that game? The Y2K Bowl wont be over for several months--and we can still get our butts kicked. Keep your fingers crossed and hope things continue in the current vein.

(Note: I have posted a new article titled, Y2K Heroes and Villains on my website at www.JimLord.to--click on Whats New" and enjoy.

-- Jim Lord (JimLordY2k@aol.com), January 02, 2000


Thank you for your latest prospective on what continues to be an on- going saga. I too, am very, very thankful for what has transpired over the past few days.

On your football analogy, at this point, I'm looking forward to the playoffs. It appears they are scheduled and moving on. Both in the NFL and the world. Thanks for dropping in.

-- Michael (michaelteever@buffalo.com), January 02, 2000.

Hey Jim! You forgot to explain what happened to the 125 cities whose utilites wouldn't make it past the rollover. Don't say wait till Monday-these are 24/7 operations. BTW, have you heard from Mr. CEO? You asshole-----you have the nerve to come on here after all your lies about the "Secret Navy Report" and "Mr CEO"? And say that this is just the beginning? We've all been wondering where North is- he's probably there with you "in Tonga". I can just picture you and North laughing as you rub your peterheads together and count your money. Fuck off, you lying bastard!!!!

-- Forget It (computergeek75@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.

Jim, I have read a lot of your stuff and I still think the jury is out on the whole complex interaction of supply chains and so on. I am also very concerned (selfishly) about the IRS. I have paid high 5 figure and some 6 figure tax bills in the years from 95-98 on my successful software consulting business. This last year has been horrible....All I have heard from potential customers is "Y2K FREEZE" I lost over $100k this year and the Government owes me a lot of money. To hear that they can only process 10,000 returns a day and will start paying people with income less than $10,000 first just floored me. I have worked all my life in the computer industry and until just the last few years have never put dates in my code (particularly embedded code). Your stuff about Mr. CEO really set me off. Prior to that I considered the embedded problem not realistic. Now I have a lot of canned goods and water that I can easlily use. However, I am very dissapointed that Mr. CEO never came forward. Now it seems compeletely irresponsible that he didn't and you and many others made it seem as though he would violate some sancrosant oath if he did.

I for one will have a very hard time believing what people report on the WWW from now on. Apparently, there isn't a whole lot more accuracy here than in the media. Now my main concern is that the IRS can process my tax return because I need the money to pay my bills and my oldest daughters college tuition. I hope that even as imcompetent as they and the FAA have been in managing software projects that they are at least able to follow the rules that our Government has set forth for taxation. If they cannot.....this may have a greater impact on this society than electric or water failurs.

-- William R. Sullivan (wrs@wham.com), January 02, 2000.

I'm sure you know I meant "perspective", oops.

-- Michael (michaelteever@buffalo.com), January 02, 2000.

I can accept the fact the y2k isn't fully over yet. However, how could IEEE, Mr. CEO, GAO testimonies be so horribly wrong about the embedded systems? While I'm pleased so far with the outcome of y2k, this is pretty much the one main question I have.

-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), January 02, 2000.

I, too, would like to know on what basis Mr. CEO felt his predictions were accurate when they were so clearly off the mark.

-- (tomDickenson@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.

Forget it -- your name calling is totally uncalled for. Why is it so important for you to hear from Lord and North? If they were so wrong, then why the heck do you still come here and get pissed off? You are one of those persons who are not satisfied unless folks bow down to you and say, plez oh plez, forgive me -- you were so right and I was sooo wrong.

Give it a rest please.

-- Mello1 (mello1@ix.netcom.com), January 02, 2000.

Wow, quite an exposi at the end of your new article!

-- that explains (quite@bit.yowsers), January 02, 2000.

I confess that I am not in no way an expert on embedded chips, so I will not offer a comment on that. However the IEEE is a solid, respectable organization, and the GAO is the Federal Government's auditors. I will say that the GAO is an auditing arm used by Congress, so it can be politically motivated. However, in the business that I am in, I get to read GAO reports on other subjects, and they are not usually too far off the mark. All I can say is that the programming community does not seem to agree on the embedded chip issue.

As for Mr. CEO, you have to take what he supposely said with a grain of salt. This person did not identify himself, was cloked in great secrecy and there was no real way of verifying his statements. However, a lot of what he said applied to the future -- especially his statement about 'dirty power'.

This past summer, the Edison Companies had a time supplying power during peak hot weather periods on the east coast and in Chicago. Given the problems ComEd had in Chicago, the fact that everything went relatively well this weekend allows them more time to get it together before next summer. That is what I am concerned about.

-- Mello1 (Mello1@ix.netcom .com), January 02, 2000.

Hey Jim,

I agree with Koskinen's and your assesment with regards to the Y2K situation - it will probably take a couple of weeks to sort out the entire issue worldwide. Personally, I believe that the "Iron Triangle" will come throught unscathed - as I have had a front row ticket with regards to Telecomm (Systems Engineer for major Telecomm Player, MSEE) and Power (my cousin works for TXU as an Electrical Engineer).

Read your article, Y2K Heroes and Villians, and thought that you were a bit too critical of our Govnt Leaders. I personally feel that you should have included Yourdon, Hyatt, North, and yourself in the villians category (if you apply the same litmus test) - everyone in the aforementioned group postured themselves as experts (in their books, videos, etc.) without an engineering degree and experience in Telecomm, Power, or System on Chip. The equivalent infraction would be for me to hang a Medical/Law shingle outside my door without the benefit of education or training...How long do you think society or the law would allow me to practice before hauling my butt to jail. Just another reason for the state governments to support the enaction of a law prohibiting individuals from advertising or soliciting work as an engineer with the P.E. certification. Moreover, I read both Hyatt's and Yourdon's book and noticed that they had very few (if any) references or citations to back up their claim. In fact, I was truly amazed by Mr. Yourdon's very weak response to Dick Mill's critique of his Power Section...Yeah, I know the refrain uttered by most on this board - "They did not make anyone buy their book or listen to their spiel". But they could have at least reined/revised their predictions or consulted the appropriate IEEE Socities whenever a worthy objection was raised (or a Critical Date/Prediction was missed). Regards,

-- Paul Dirac (pdirac@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.

William R. Sullivan

I certainly share your anger with Mr. CEO, not to mention others. I too have some money coming from the government as I'm aware of the IRS statement you're talking about. I will be pissed if I have to wait for it.

-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), January 02, 2000.

Hey Jellobrain 1-Sally Struthers called---your diploma is ready! There was no way to verify the Mr. CEO business?---it was all cloaked in "great secrecy"? Are you completely stupid? LORD VOUCHED FOR THE GUY HIMSELF YOU IDIOT!!!!

-- Forget It (computergeek75@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.

Forget it -- was that an absolution? Why should it matter to you that Lord vouched for him when you don't even believe anything Lord says anyway? BTW, you can call me what you want, but I will not stoop down to your level to do the same.

What's your problem Forget? Everything turned out fine. Why are you so angry now?

-- Mello1 (mello1@ix.netcom.com), January 02, 2000.

Jim, I had the honor of reading your life accomplishments on this forum a month or so ago and commend you on doing many worthwhile things over the years. That said, one would think that you are quite thankful that making such poor prognostications seemingly have never been a habit of yours in the past, nor was there a necessity to make such projections. At this stage of the game, I find it largely tragic that an individual of your magnitude would cling to some strange 'hope' that events transpire to validate those erroneous predictions of doom.

Your entire scenario with regards to Y2K seems to have been an aberration in comparison to an admittedly brilliant career. Regardless of what transpires over the next few days, it is clear that you were in error.

It is history. Please move on.

-- Bad Company (reflecting@shootingstar.com), January 02, 2000.

The internet seems to be an ideal place for jailhouse lawyers to hang out. The 'know-it-all' types who have worn out their welcome at pubs, bars, company water coolers, in-laws houses, etc.

Experts (with no credentials) foisting their 'knowledge' on little people who don't have the academic or life experience or understand the topic. I have an engineering degree from a reputable and respected university, plus over twenty years of experience in the power distribution industry. But, what would I know?

I know that I knew your Mr. CEO was/is a fraud or a fool and the Navy 'report' was a typical Navy report: If the block isn't checked, consider the worst case.

-- PNG (png@gol.com), January 02, 2000.

Why should it matter to you that Lord vouched for him when you don't even believe anything Lord says anyway?

Mello 1-quit avoiding the issue, which is why should ANYONE believe ANYTHING Lord, North, Hyatt, etc, say ever again? When the Mr. CEO controversy was raging, the whole question was whether or not to believe this guy who wouldn't give his real name. Some were saying it was all a prank, and then Lord came out and said he would trust Mr. CEO completely. You can't have forgotten already...so why do you persist in defending these money grubbing, lying, fear mongers?

Bad Company--his career hitherto may have been quite meritorious, but greed has led many a good man astray. The love of money is the root of all sorts of evil, and Lord sold A LOT of books and newsletters with his garbage. It is inexcusable.

PNG--Rock on!

-- Forget It (computergeek75@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.

Not so fast, guys. Perhaps we should reflect on all that has passed. To a man, we are more dependent than ever on someone else for our well being. My wife and I prepared quite well for any problem at rollover. I look at the things we have, and I don't feel stupid, not at all. I feel, for the first time in a long while, that we are more independent of a system that I have no control over than ever. As a man, it's my duty to provide for my family, to assess the risk's, and act as best as I can to minimize any negative impact of ANYTHING on my family. BTW, I have spent most of my adult life working as a WAN network Mgr. I'm still not sold on the "all is well". I oft times wonder, of the more vocal and mean spirited people, if they have any experience in this field. If they have not seen the smoke like some of us have, they should put a sock in it.

-- Mr Willferd (MrWilferd@middle.usa), January 02, 2000.

Mr.Willferd, your points are reasonable and plausible. As a fence-sitter (and polly to many here), I too made preps coming down to the wire and have no embarassment in stating as much. Like you, having a family entails thinking about both sides of the coin. I could not take the chance that the doom crowd was 100% wrong.

But your last words about NOT having a background is on the mark, as well. Did anyone truly have a background in this once in a lifetime scenario? Should anyone have had the ability to list a resume--as many did--and claim they had some inner enlightenment to what would truly transpire? In essence, would I am putting forward again is that one's own perception of the problem put the shackles on his/her overall view of the situation.

IMHO, Mr.Lord bears some responsibility for the faulty claims in terms of some 'I was mistaken' thought. To add to the error by comparing the Y2K situation to a football game borders on unconscionable.

-- Bad Company (explaining@shootingstar.com), January 02, 2000.

Jim Lord is certainly a great guy, but he completely misunderstood the Navy Report. And his "proof" about why Bennett is a "villain" doesn't make sense. (see hthe .pfdf at his site.) Kosky and Bennet knew about it before Lord even had his site up.

I guess it's hard to stop beating a dead horse when it's the only horse ya got.

-- (beans@in.the basement), January 02, 2000.

Has anyone seen the movie "Pass the Ammo?" Go rent it, because it's exactly what's going on here. Do you people really think that Ed Yourdon, Gary North, Hyatt, Jim Lord, etc., really gives a rats ass what you think of them. They wrote books, articles and magazines and people bought them, and they did it legally. They seized the opportunity and got fish to take the bait. Clever individuals they are, maybe you're all jealous that you couldn't have been as clever. Oh well, get on with your life, your all pissed that you got the wool pulled over your eyes. BTW, Jesus is coming again, his Kingdom is at hand, sell all your worldly belongings and give it to the poor..and pass the ammo.

-- laughing stock (laughingstock@laughingstockk.xcom), January 02, 2000.

Mr. Lord, as a retired United States Senior Chief Petty Officer, I would just like to say that I am ashamed that we wore the same uniform.

It galls me to see a former United States Naval Officer turn into an 'Art Bell' type Internet BS and FUD cultivator.

Enjoy your future endevors sir, I sure hope you learned from this one. Happy new year,

Jon Guirl

-- Jon Guirl, ATCS (USN Ret.) (jguirl@yahoo.com), January 02, 2000.

Jesus! Give it a rest people!

How can you blame Jim Lord or anybody else for something that was and is the great unknown? Are you the only ones that missed the last couple of years? This is *very* easy, some saw potential problems and some did not. Nobody that I ran across had "the answer".

-- BiGG (superste@antigopro.net), January 02, 2000.

Bad Company, after watching my beloved Chiefs lose today, I find any reference to football hard to take. As preparedness goes, I'm pretty cautious, 2 batt. in the boat, gas can in trunk, an old oldsmobile as a 3rd car just in case my Merc. or wife's Honda should die. Heck we already heat our house with wood and had a couple of months food. When you have your first grandchild, the world does not look as safe as you would like. I would hate for anything to happen to step- daughter and family, especially if I could prevent it.

-- Mr. Wilferd (wilferdw@aol.com), January 02, 2000.

I cant believe that the above post is all you have to say for yourself Mr. Lord. At a minimum, please comment (in retrospect) on the Mr. CEO thing! Please help me reconcile huge gap between prediction vs actual so far. Please clear the air with some comment because the mention of your name evokes doubt (of credibility) more and more as your silence (avoiding comment) on this issue continues. Regrettably it appears to me, you are proving youself out to be a politician of the ilk you claim to have been fighting against. Meditate on the meaning of integrity for a moment.

And Mr. North who (if my memory serves me) implied that "the Mr. CEO thing" was credible. Please -- integrity demands a response -- unless of course this is just about dog eat dog and every man for himself. If this effort to awaken people is simply "Let the reader beware", then this event (and the whole y2k awareness thing) is truely a sad commentary of our times.

Please... a brief comment!!...either of you, since relying on your statements I urged many friends and family to act. I take full responsibility for those actions which I did....I ask only (in the name of fairness and decency) that you comment specifically on this Mr CEO warning vs. actual(so far) apparent gap, disconnect.

Sincerely, Patrick

-- Patrick (pmwalsh@rocketmail.com), January 02, 2000.

Well, tis time to retire for the evening. Tomorrow we fire up our 5 IBM that's "I BELIEVE IN MAGIC" for the uninitiated, AS400 "s-30's for my brothers", and see if our all encompassing ERP decides to work. I thank the God's of silicone that I work in the hdw side, not the application side. Robert.

-- Mr Wilferd (Wilferdw@aol.com), January 02, 2000.

Time for the apology, Jim.

And then you and Mr. CEO should take your well deserved retirement from the public scene.


-- Bradley K. Sherman (bks@netcom.com), January 03, 2000.

As an IT professional and someone who has done a considerable amount of primary and secondary research on Y2K, I was pretty surprised at the low levels of initial problems, especially in countries who did little or no remediation on their embedded systems. Your points about extra manning, manual work-arounds, and systems shut down for the rollover are well-taken. However, I still expected more immediate effects from embedded systems than we have seen.

On the other hand, as a fellow New Mexican, I was tickled when we lost power for about a day on Christmas Eve / Day after getting 18 inches of snow. With gas appliances, a wood stove, and a PV system, the outage was simply a good excuse to invite neighbors over to enjoy Christmas with warmth, lights and music. You couldn't buy my wood stove from me, regardless of Y2K outcomes. IMO, the beauty, even heat, added moisture (from keeping a pot of water on the stove), low cost of operation, and other benefits make forced air heating a poor second choice.

I am very thankful that it now looks likely that the worst Y2K effects we may see are economic disruptions and serious personal inconveniences. The "meltdown" scenario may have been avoided, and while I'm perhaps overprepared for a lesser scenario, it is still nice to know that things like potential unemployment and spot shortages need not worry me. In fact, I'll be in a very good position to help others through rough times, should that happen.

Thanks for your articles. Please keep up the analysis and editorials for the next few months. I always find it helpful to read the writings of those who think independently from the herd. It's not about being right every single time. It's about being prudent and being willing to live with your choices.

I prepared for a pretty bad scenario, but I also prepared for a mild one. I'm thankful it looks like the mild scenario is more likely now. I would submit to those who didn't prepare that they should be thankful as well instead of merely being arrogant.


-- Mark (wmarkh@aol.com), January 03, 2000.

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