Curious about the mood of the listgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
While giving nod to those that say we won't see the full and cumulative effects of small Y2K failures for some weeks/months to come, why aren't more people on this forum happy that the worst failed to show up on 1/1/2000? I'm talking about disasters that involved power grids/utilities, ATC/transportation, weapons of mass destruction, nuclear/chemical facilities, and other important installations and issues that folks speculated upon in the months preceding Y2K.
Personally, I was most annoyed when my ISP awakened me a year ago to the fact that Y2K could cause disruptions in the things that make our everyday life tick along smoothly. I was pretty happy with things as they were. I did a little research and agreed with my ISP, Mr. Yourdon and many others that some things could go wrong and did some preparing based upon my location, personal/family situation, and belief system about Y2K, trying to cover as many bases as possible, one base being that nothing would happen of any significance so I didn't go too far out on any limb.
I read some of the things posted since the roll overs both local and UTC and it seems like quite a few folks are still waiting for the other shoe to drop big time while ignoring or debunking the positive reports some coming first hand from those on this list. While I realize that we have yet to see if the financial and other business sectors hold up, if they do and all is well in the coming weeks/months, I sense that there will be a significant number of folks still waiting, for what I'm not sure.
I can seriously understand having some regrets if one spent too much money on unusable things for Y2K, or did some things not easily undone such as moved or quit their job, and I won't mock those that prepared more or believed that Y2K was going to be a bigger problem than I did, or those that remain skeptical of the media reports. And I most certainly don't want to behave like some of the more ungracious "I told you so" folks that are trumpeting their apparent rightness, regardless of how anyone behaved on this list to "provoke" that kind of response, but I am genuinely baffled by the phenomena of unhappiness that I sense among many. Is this simply a difference in Y2K or other belief systems or are some people always sniffing in the wind for danger like the sentry wolf in a wolf pack or goose in a flock of geese?
I for one am thrilled with the lack of apparent big problems, will monitor the small ones as they come up and then will go on with my life as before except I will be eating out less for about 6 months. I'm wondering if there are folks out there like me and could someone enlighten me? With all due respect.
-- Cathy AKA Ramp Rat (email@example.com), January 02, 2000
I'm ecstatic! The worst possible outcome involved global, systemic failure of infrastructure. We can forget about the Stone Age (which I was scared s***less of!). I'm still really bearish on the economy but I'm feeling somewhat confident that we've dodged total, global anarchy.
-- Think It (Through@Pollies.Duh), January 02, 2000.
Well, the embeddeds that were fixed properly worked, the embeddeds that were fixed impropperly worked, and the embeddeds that weren't fixed at all worked. I'd say that for rollover to be sooo painless and the terrorist threat to not have been a factor points to only one conclusion... God DOES answer prayer. Be very thankful!
-- Ace (Ace@nospam.com), January 02, 2000.
I will respond and keep it short. I am glad about the turn of events. What I don't like are the useless (in my opinion) debates over who was right and who was wrong. If there are people who chose not to prepare because they didn't think there would be a problem, that is fine with me. However, gloating about it is counterproductive. In fact, I think it is nuts. I would never get on this or any other forum, after having learned that everything has gone horribly wrong and say, in effect, "Na, na, nee, na, na, see I told you so."
I took the problem seriously and I believe that I acted responsibly. I didn't spend 20,000 dollars (don't have that anyway), I didn't go hide in an underground bunker, I didn't leave the country, and I didn't deplete my bank account.
On the other hand, I am also skeptical, but I always tend to be. I can handle the truth, but I also want to be assured that I am getting the truth.
I will continue to wait to see what happens as systems have a chance to cycle through once. I feel that it is a reasonable, practical and prudent thing to do.
-- Mello1 (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
Cathy; Thank you for a bit of wisdom. Indeed you have spoken well and true. That old sentry wolf is necessary. Sometimes he will sound an alarm and the pack will disperse BUT when they come together again, they don't cast out that old wolf. They just go about the business of getting lunch.
That from an old man who spent his life worrying for the people, many time when it was not necessary, sometimes when it was necessary. I prefer to remember the times people did not have to suffer.
A professional worrier, still waiting.
-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 02, 2000.
Ramp Rat, When I saw that the power was still on in Fiji @ the 1st rollover, it was a rush, I was thrilled but still wary of GMT. As 2000 was ushered in around the globe with strobe lights and lasers very obviously functioning, I relaxed. We were prepared for any outcome but I am still hoping that the IRS bit the dust. Aren't you?
-- Charli (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
Cathy Ramp Rat,
I am extremely happy about the outcome thus far, and I agree that there are some here who are desperate to find some shred of validation for their efforts. I guess I can't blame them. But knowing that there are not millions freezing to death in Russia and Asia makes me feel quite relieved. And knowing that my family in Phoenix has water and power makes me feel thrilled.
I guess it is easy for me to say, though, because I didn't go too far out on that limb, either. I am surprised, very surprised, that the warnings from the State Dept and even the CIA appear to be unnecessary, but I'll take it.
It's like when they are predicting 2 feet of snow and we only get 2 inches. But it's better than when the storm comes unpredicted.
You stay warm up there in our 49th state, and keep us posted on ATC and FAA.
-- semper paratus (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
Cathy says: "I am genuinely baffled by the phenomena of unhappiness that I sense among many. Is this simply a difference in Y2K or other belief systems or are some people always sniffing in the wind for danger like the sentry wolf in a wolf pack or goose in a flock of geese? I for one am thrilled with the lack of apparent big problems..."
I'm awfully glad to be alive and not in a crisis, which I never thought I'd handle gracefully. I always insisted to myself that I only wanted things to work, and would not mind the embarassment of being wrong. But I'm one of those who way overprepared, including converting stock to gold. Now I realize that I've inadvertantly made myself NEED things to fail. I've bet against my own team. If the economy is completely unaffected, I will have taken huge hits in pulling out of 401Ks and so forth. But if the financial system goes into a tailspin I'll be in good shape, because gold tends to rise or at least remain stable when other things are collapsing. I was so certain of trouble that I didn't foresee this moral conflict. I was mainly hoping (but not believing) that the physical infrastructure would continue to work. I looked wistfully at 1929 thinking, well I would do fine in that scenario because at least they still had power, oil, and water. So it turns out we have those things too (though we're still not certain about oil).
-- (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
Your points are well taken. I, for one, am amazed, grateful, shocked, befuddled, disoriented and most of all relieved. I was convinced that we wouldn't have power. No power - no life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. We not only have power, but so does the rest of the world (apparently). After accepting Infomagic's statistics (90% casualties), I didn't expect to be in the 10% survivors, since I opted to remain in the suburbs. I feel like I have been given a reprieve.
It's not hard to imagine how a "hardcore doomer" might feel now. Having invested 100% of their energy in preparing, it's got to be a let down to realize that those preps may have not been necessary. We're certainly not out of the woods yet, but as long as we have power, we will be able to patch the potholes. I suppose that some folks who made life changes to accommodate their vision of Y2k might feel cheated. After all, they stood to inherit the earth.
I believe that we have witnessed the largest miracle ever - impacting the entire planet. I would have said it was impossible that there would be no major infrastructure failures somewhere in the world (I mean Russia did practically nothing). I don't believe that we can take credit for this achievement. Someone is messing with our reality. IMHO.
-- Michael (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
Sorry, I wasn't finished rambling and hit the wrong key.
We all understand that there are two levels of this thing: call them physical and financial, embeddeds and databases, whatever. The physical level seems to be under much better control than I could imagine before. The financial level is still an unknown. So I'm watching with the inner conflict that I already described, to see if the Latin American banks are "toast" and the IRS is paralyzed, and so forth. From now on, I will stake my reputation only on optimistic forecasts. Then I don't have to root for failure.
-- (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
I've been aware of Y2K since August 25th, 1998. Sometime in Sept. I found out that GM had tested a plant for Y2K and it shut down completely including locking the outside doors. I found out the electric plants were likely to do the same. So from Sept 1998 til Dec. 31, 1999, I have prepped. I was never so happy to hear an alarm clock as on Jan. 1, 2000. When I did a last minute shut down of our computer at 6:55pm Dec. 31st, I was almost too late. The screens started fading and breaking up before I hit shut down. The coffee I started at 6:30 took 20MIN to brew. Something was going on. On Jan 1 the power was up but when the fan on the gas furnace came on (in addition to two flourescent lights) it blew a fuse. Something was going on. Everytime the coffee heats, the refrigerator motor almosts stops. I think we are right on the edge of a failure. I'm just holding my breath. Pam
-- Pamela (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
Confused: Your take on things is exactly why I didn't pull everything out -- deep down inside, I honestly DID believe that it would be okay. Everytime I found myself thinking the extreme thought of doom and gloom and disaster, I always had to ask myself, "What if nothing happens?". So instead of pocketing my mutual fund, I left some in, and the money I took out, I paid off one of my credit cards. That is a decision I will never regret, because I would have retire still paying that bill!
Again, I stay reserved. I'm more concerned about having to fight with my bank, bank cards, etc. over errors caused by computer glitches. I already have to go to battle tomorrow....
-- Mello1 (Mello1@ix.netcom.com), January 02, 2000.
Cindy, Never do I recall being so happy on a New Year's Weekend. We celebrated the evening of the first, The Day the Power Stayed Up Globally, by driving down the Ohio River, all the way from Beaver, PA, to Wheeling, West Virginia. I marveled at the lights glowing from all the factories, at the functioning power plant, at the functioning cooling tower, at the Christmas decorations and the warm light pouring from the windows of the homes. And then we drove through the exquisite Festival of Lights in Oglebay, a breathtaking display. I feel such gratitude and relief that we made it through the first days so smoothly. I keep picturing the cartoon where the student is pointing to the end of a long equation and saying to the professor, "And here, a miracle happens." Yup. It's a lot like that.
Glad to have a breather before the next round. Ready for whatever the morrow brings. Today, though, the world is an exceptionally beautiful place. And didn't we launch 2000 in style!
-- Faith Weaver (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
I'm vastly relieved, Cathy, and proceeding with my life, but I do still expect repercussions.
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), January 02, 2000.
Have some patience folks, the game is not over. Embeddeds could fail anytime over the next few months. Your government systems have not even started up, for heavens sake. We all seem to want to be instant armchair quarterbacks about this.
I can start a car with no oil with no problem. It will even begin to drive.
Some critical analysis, please.
-- gary elliott (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
Dear Ramp Rat, (what's a ramp rat?)
Five minutes after midnight, Zulu, into Y2k, I became the happiest person in the world. I have, and will have power, water and a warm, flushing toilet. Most other expected failures won't matter much.
Been there, done that.
-- Not again! (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
Hi, all. I've been prepping for two years, a little bit at a time, ever since I wandered onto this forum. Do I regret the significant debt thus incurred? No, not at all...preparation is part of my nature and is vindicated by my 36 years of experience in the military and govt agencies. I'm glad I'm at the point where I'm at.
However, I do have one small regret: my wife and her relatives are all dyed-in-the-wool DWGIs...dumber than dogshit, if I may be so crude. I had hoped for sufficient disruptions to their personal lifestyles so as to shake them up a bit, and maybe get them thinking that a bit of preparation is sensible and worthwhile. If not for y2k, then just for any unforeseen disruption.
As it is, they now feel that their DWGI attitudes have just been validated and proven correct. They are now convinced that the famous (or infamous) "they" will always appear on the big white horse, just in time to take the situation in hand and save their butts, thus relieving them from the need to take on that responsibility for themselves. And that, I deeply regret. It's not a good thing on an individual, personal level, and it's not a good thing for our society and country. And there's absolutely nothing I can do about it...
-- Norm Harrold (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
I am thrilled beyond belief.
After two years of anguish as to the possible intense pain Y2K could cause our species, I'm finally back to normal. Sure, I expect massive failures, and somebody, somewhere, is gonna get TEOTWAHKI.
Having 2 years advance notice gave me time to prepare for the range of 4-8. Didn't prep for a 10; just couldn't do it. But it appears we can drop the range of difficulties to 1-8, now that we can discard 9 & 10.
Please count me among the ecstatic and astonished that global infrastructure seems to remain essentially intact. And bring on recession, even depression (although I pray and beg not, I have some serious spending plans concocted: been living way too 'frugally' for a year now), at least we can conclusively state that maybe not even hundreds of life will be lost as a result of infrastructure crashes.
I see the world with hawk eyes now, and the two years of angst was entirely worth it, particularly regarding new-gained knowledge of how the world really works, thanks to our forum.
I can't believe how wonderfully it's turned out, and while we still may experience deep financial hell, I'm ready for it. And will be grateful if that's the worse we experience, what with my deepest fears completely vanquished: loss of human life.
Hey, send that DOW to 36,000!
But first let's make an attempt to change the dependencies that terrified us in the first place: electricity, water, oil.....
Time has come to take critical infrastructure out of the realm of business and into our own hands. Fuel cells and electric cars: let's go.
And for those wise souls who have contributed their knowledge of economic, technical and human mechanization: you walk amonst the Gods.
Keep yer chin up: we still may get a BITR.
-- lisa (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
I was ABSOLUTELY THRILLED to drive home from the party and see all the decorations ON and the street lights etc. I was OVERJOYED to read late on Saturday that the rest of the world aparently has no infrastructure problems sufficient to be a show stopper in any of their utilities.
Now, do I expect that this wonderfulness will continue? Well, I believe I said to a number of folk that the power being off on 010100 would surprise ME more than it surprised Flint or Ken Decker. I'm more concerned about 0500 03Jan00 as the factories spin up, for power. AS far as the BUSINESS sector, we haven't even STARTED to test the big iron. Yes the POS Terms work in most of the stores, the gas pumps work, etc. However, these systems work, TYPICALLY on mini based networks, not big iron. There are a LOT of applications that only run once a week, month, quarter, or year. We'll see.
Unfortunately, we can't say about the banks as the clearing and posting hasn't even STARTED for the END OF 1999! That is the foirst order of business on Monday Morning, to close out the 31st, and start the First. Please recognize that the banks' Monday "Work" will include transactions from the 31st, 1st, and 2nd.
ANYway, enough caution for NOW, I need to do a few errands. (slice some jerky meat, set it to marinate in the fridge, fire up the drier tomorrow) LORD ain't it GRAND to have Power, and HOT WATER for the shower???
-- Chuck, a night driver (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
By the way, I should mention that I'm drinking champagne as I write this, that which I kept corked while watching the rollover: I am celebrating the happiest New Years ever, or at least until we bio- engineer the money tree.
-- lisa (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
I am also glad that everything has stayed up. When I began my prepping I did so from the point of view of being able to use what I prepped even if Y2K turned out to be a no-show. (tonight I ground my wheat and am making bread)
While the final jury is still out, I am grateful that things did not go "infomagic" at midnight. I will wait and see how the rest goes but I am definitely breathing a sigh of relief and offering a prayer of gratitude for this passing us by.
-- ExCop (Yinadral@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.