What if General Motors was shut down for 1 or 2 months?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
What if General Motors was shut down for 1 or 2 months?
Would that not be the same as a labor strike that caused the business to shut down for a period of a month or 2? This happens all the time. The stock market does not collapse. The economy does not come to an end.
Like many of you, I prepared quite a bit. I even over prepared. I figured since I had the resources to buy food for others, I had the moral responsibility to do so. Now I am faced with eating my way through a very large supply of food. Some will go to food banks and those that could use some support.
Since 1/1/2000 started rolling over the planet, I have watched this forum carefully for clues and information to supplement the conventional news sources.
The $64,000 question is "will there be enough disruption caused by lingering y2k effects to really impact the economy?"
The area that could cause the biggest impact is banking/finance/brokerage houses. The guys that move 1-2 trillion dollars through the world every day. If they get jammed up, we have a problem.
So far, everyone claims to have solved the y2k problem months and months ago. Is that credible?
On the other side, we have the example of the early December German bank crash. It has been argued that once we get into 2000, that problems like that will happen again and again. Is that cedible?
Another major problem is Latin America. America is heavily invested in Latin America. Europe is not. If Latin America crashes because of y2k, America loses the products (such as ball bearings) and the income stream. This might cause European and Japanese investors to abandon the American stock market. Is this credible?
We have the odd tale of oil. Many claims of big problems. Since the embedded chips did not mess up the electrical utilities, why should they mess up the oil sector. News reports say no problems with oil fields, pipelines, loading facilities, or tankers. Will oil really be a y2k problem?
We really need to focus on the big stuff. We know that there are plenty of offices and video stores that need to get their computers adjusted. Please don't report that any more. We really need to know about the big stuff. That is what matters.
-- David Holladay (email@example.com), January 02, 2000
David; What if-ing is what made me fear the initial roll over more than I should have. What if-ing is what makes me fear the next few months, perhaps more than I should. We are all what if-ing in our private moments. Those of us who remain, waiting, anyway.
My darling wife is a person who is extremely easily worried. My concerns have mostly been kept to myself and yet have essentially paralized her business plans these past couple of months. My worries have also essentially paralized my own efforts in my business these past several months.
I will worry because it is my nature to worry. Others will worry because it is their nature to take at face value what others say. Will you needlessly worry others? Why?
Is it possible that there could be serious problems down the road because of unremediated/poorly remediated software systems, you betcha.
Right now it is time to watch. To report. To document what IS happening and not to speculate what might happen. Why do I believe this? Because I want to stop worrying and get on with my life as quickly as I possibly can.
David; this is not said to offend. This is not 'head-in-the-sand-ism'. This is waiting.
-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 02, 2000.
And now that I more carefully READ what you said... I see that I simply agree with your point. Too bad you can't take back what you just posted.... duh :)
-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 02, 2000.
If GM shut down for 50 days, made no cars, paid no workers or suppliers, then the GDP in the USA would be roughly 2% smaller during that quarter than it would have been without the shutdown. Also, a lot of GM workers would be hurting. That's a big impact, but not enough to shatter anything.
-- Brian McLaughlin (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 02, 2000.
Before you folks cart your food supplies off to the soup line, you need the answers to two questions. First, will there be petroleum products and fertilizer for the farmers to plant their crops in the spring? And second, what is Bubba going to do with those tens of thousands of foreign troops (and their military equipment) that he has been shipping into the U.S. in mass for months? You may need that food next winter.
-- Responding (Responding@***.***), January 02, 2000.
****what is Bubba going to do with those tens of thousands of foreign troops (and their military equipment) that he has been shipping into the U.S. in mass for months?****
Huh? What troops? Tell me more please.
-- cin (email@example.com), January 02, 2000.
Not, much that I can tell you. Just trainloads and trainloads of military equipment, mainly in the south, going west. As for troops, there are Slovainian, Slovakian, Czech, Russian, Chinese, German, etc. mostly in the south - at places like Fort Polk, Fort Hood, also Michigan and Indiana, etc. I assume they are U.N./NATO getting ready to take over the country, to whip us in line. If you think Bubba is done, think again. They are moving some of them around in those white busses now. You tell me why they are here and why they need so much heavy equipment, ie: tanks, howitzers, etc. As I said, until we know what they have in mind, I would hold onto my food and water supplies. There are some websites around where there are photos of the equipment being moved. Plus, persons who live near the railroads tell about unprecedented shipments of foreign military equipment going west. They haven't seen anything like this in the past.
-- responding (responding@***.***), January 02, 2000.
I havent the first clue what is in the 'white busses' and absolutly no knowledge of foreign troops. I have personally seen white busses as I used to drive by Fort A.P. Hill every morning and evening. I saw the busses on many occasions heading into A. P. Hill and guessed them to be the Spec Ops or FBI folks who trained at A. P. Hill. It is difficult to move MASSES of troops in a few white busses, however; and this means of conveyance is much more likely to be associated with a desire to move troops or special operations folks discretely.
Sure the busses exist, why not? The military needs methods to move troops and material which will not panic the general population. There are always those who are scared by the mere presence of soldiers. To convince me they are MASSES of UN troops in movement will take a bit more evidence and that will have to be substantiated better than this comment of mine.
-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 03, 2000.