THE DANGER OF Y2K SNOWBALL EFFECT. : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Even though 10% of the world is experiencing minor glitches randomly in the basic infrastructure now, it should be noted carefully by all IT professionals and computer experts that the other 90% of the system hasn't yet been fired up in real-time testing. As people will go back to work on Monday fire up those systems and then we will soon see what kind of interconnectivity problems surface as the whole system is then put into full operation. If we start seeing snowball effects happening over the next few weeks we wil soon know how far the system can cope without collasping on itself.

The small glitches that we think are 'minor problems' now can easily at any time start escalating through the infrastructure, so its a waiting game to see how many of these glitches will surface. If there is enough of those little tiny glitches or outages happening all at once this can clog up or collaspe the infrastructure and grind it to a halt, but only time will tell if the glitches start increasing in their accelerations or remain at a stable level that the system and the programmers are able to cope with, for this is the big hidden danger of the y2k issue now.

-- Brent Nichols (, January 02, 2000


You're an insurance broker, right?

-- Truk (truk@loa.moc), January 02, 2000.

Thanks you Brent,

are you listening Flint, CD, LLogic, pro, ddecker and assorted numbskulls?

-- Andy (, January 02, 2000.

I am sure there will be an increase in the amount of glitching when the other 90% of the code is put into operation when people go back to business as usual and with those systems that couldn't get their embeds upgraded because not enough time, in the meantime last minute fixing is probably being done during the holidays to try to turn back the glitch bomb before people go to work. We must also take into account that this is where the "non-compliant or incompleted systems" around the world start to play the part in provoking a interconnecting glitch snowball effect for nearly half the world's computer systems did not make it to the deadline of 31st Dec 1999 and so technicians hope to try to fix things in 2000 after the glitching starts for the danger is far from over, if the glitches snowball, it may outdo the number of technicians and programmers to fix it, it's just the beginning, wait and see.

Now it all depends if there is enough glitching to outdo the number of programmers patching the systems up, this will be quie interesting. The bomb has gone off, but it hasn't quite detonated fully yet, its a Year 2000 Timebomb, not a Day 2000 Timebomb. So many think that because everything in the basic infrastructure is still operational so far with only minor glitches that this y2k bomb is only a fizzler.

We will know if the infrastructure stands once it starts going into full real-time testing, we can't know if the system is going to pass the test until the whole thing is tested. Before we celebrate thining the y2k bug has been beaten, not everything was put in full operation on New Year's celebrations, because we see the power and phones still working or basic utils, this don't mean that the whole system has jumped the hurdle over y2k.

-- Brent Nichols (, January 02, 2000.


While I agree with you that there are a lot of glitches still to show, there is a flaw in your logic that does need discussing. I was not going to respond to your message, but Andy has been pasting your message into so many different threads that I have lost count. And unfortunately he is using your words as proof that everything is going to collapse.

You begin by stating that "10% of the world is experiencing minor glitches". Do you have any evidence of this 10% figure as it is vital to the logic that you then use?

You next say "the other 90% of the system hasn't yet been fired up". This implies that only 10% of the worlds systems are curently working, and yet that same 10% is experiencing glitches of one sort or another. Put another way, you are saying that 100% of the systems currently in service are experincing glitches.

If this is true then when the other 90% do come on and it suffers the same 100% failure then the world will be toast instantly. However, this is where your logic appears flawed as we already know that 100% of the systems in service are not experiencing faults.

If what you mean to say is that 10% of the 10% of systems in service are experiencing glitches, then that would equate to 1% of the world total at present, and 10% once all systems are in service. And that is certainly a more manageable scenario although still bad.

You further say "in the meantime last minute fixing is probably being done during the holidays". This statement is definitely correct. At our group of power stations we have experinced one definite Y2K issue that we thought had been fully remediated, yet had a minor failure. It took 2 IT staff a day and a half to fix it. And one failure which may have been Y2K related, or may have been due to moisture damage during our recent floods. In either event it took a technician 3 minutes to fix, and we aren't going to waste any more time investigating it.

What you don't mention here is any indication of what percentage of Y2K issues will be addressed over the weekend as they come to light, and whether this will affect your estimate of the snowball effect.

No-one will deny that there are still Y2K faults to find, but the biggest hurdle for the infrastructure (electricity) is OK at this stage, and that certainly makes it easier for any FOF for the rest of the world.

Andy, If you are going to quote Brent in the manner that you have been, would you please link back to the original post so that readers can see it in context.


-- Malcolm Taylor (, January 02, 2000.

Yes masa

-- Andy (, January 02, 2000.

Actually I've cobbled together 3 of Brents posts into one and credited his name.

this is basic stuff but most pollies skirt right by it

Thanks Brent - should clear up some polly thinking if they bother to read it.

-- Andy (, January 02, 2000.

Sorry Malcolm. It is good to see that the power in New Zealand has been stable so far. I am not stating that it is absolute fact that everything will collaspe, but saying that the y2k glitches may behave like pac-man on a power pill rampage and if there is enough of them from unfinished testing and remedation of systems, over time can have the potential to cause things to come unstuck or collaspe things for the framework of the code is likely to get weakened by these glitches as a result of digital termites eating away at it.

The potential for this kind of danger ahead exists, this could be a nasty surprise to us to find the system runs fine now, but deep inside it is infested with millions and millions of termite eggs that was in the bomb itself. The y2k's termites were in the pupil stage until the detonation of 1 Jan 2000 happened now the wake-up call has been given, the time has run out, the eggs that laid dormant are now starting to hatch now one by one and the termites are now coming out of the system and they will need something to eat for they are hungry, the glitches we are having now are the result of the damage these digital termites do after eating away certain parts of the system.

-- Brent Nichols (, January 02, 2000.

There's nothing TO SNOWBALL WITH!!! There were and are NO MAJOR FAILURES ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD! To have a snowball, you need SNOW! And there is NONE! Give it up andy, y2k is a dead issue... Try to return your preps and gold so that you aren't left holding useless crap....

-- Crono (, January 02, 2000.

Unfotunately that statement sadly underestimate's the problem and is ignorant of the nature of y2k. We are still in the y2k danger period we have just started going along the bumpy road, just starting the long journey so to speak, we've barely started, it is not Day 2000 but Year 2000.

-- Brent Nichols (, January 02, 2000.

WATCH FINANCIAL SECTOR FOR THIS! International currency markets do a Trillion Dollars a day in trades. The banking sector in U.S. does Hundreds of Millions of transactions per day. International banking, all world stock markets, futures, etc. etc.

The speed and volume of a typical week will turn the tiniest "glitch" into the biggest of troubles, and once it happens, you cannot put the desk calculator down and retrace all the errors and rectify.

Anybody discounting this "unknown" isn't thinking too thoroughly.


-- (He Who) Rolls with Punches (, January 02, 2000.

Don't eat yellow snowballs.

-- (frosty@snow.balls), January 02, 2000.


-- Johnny Canuck (, January 02, 2000.

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