Canadian Analysis of the Turnover

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I've reprinted this from Mr. Hyatt's site because it is both humorous and a good analysis. My apologies if it has already been posted.

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The Canadian y2k site administrator had this to say regarding the turnover:

"As far as what exactly happened yesterday, I'm still at a loss to explain. I think many, many people who follow Y2K closely are as well, whether "doomsayer" or "pollyanna." Like I mentioned above, how could countries like Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Indonesia, Ivory Coast, not to mention various areas of Eastern Europe who did little or nothing to fix their Y2K problems come through the rollover without so much as a scratch? And if they could do that, spending barely a dime on remediation, why in hell did we spend billions to accomplish the exact same results?

At this moment in time, the first part of that question to me is more important, and one that has completely baffled not only me, but many, many people who are far more qualified. If there was one thing that both the pollyannas and the doomsayers agreed on, it was that "things are going to break at rollover." Especially in the less-developed areas of the world. How many systems, which systems and to what extent was the only real argument. But apparently, virtually nothing "broke." Anywhere!

This is where my mixed-feelings come into play. I liken it to accidentally driving off a 500 foot cliff. You're on your way down, and you know you're going to hit, you just don't know how hard and what the damage will be. But instead, just 10 feet from the ground your car stops in mid-air and just hangs there. Cautiously, carefully you open the door and drop yourself to the ground counting your unbelievable "luck."

But once your elation has subsided and your heartbeat returns to normal, you stand up and walk over to the car, still hovering there. You look at it. You look for cables, wires or any kind of hidden support-structure but there's nothing. Its just there, floating. Out of all the possible scenarios and outcomes that ran through your mind on the way down, only one thing was certain -- you were going to hit the ground. So how do you explain the car now? It is impossible and by every law of Physics in the universe, this shouldn't have happened. Yet there it is, right in front of you. And although you spend hour after hour watching this vehicle float 10 feet above the ground, something inside you still keeps you from getting underneath it. It is just too strange.

So if anyone is looking for an explanation as to just how everybody on the face of the planet came through the rollover without so much as a scratch, the truth is I have absolutely no idea! It simply shouldn't have happened that way, and although I am overjoyed that today as I write this, the power, water, phones, etc are working in every single part of the world and remain completely unaffected by the Y2K rollover, I still have the strangest feeling that something is, well, missing.

What happened should have been impossible. Yet here we are. And although the world surviving the rollover should cause great comfort, the sheer circumstances under which it occurred, not to mention the extent to which it occurred, instead create an odd sort of feeling.

No significant failures??? Anywhere??? That's impossible!!! These phrases have been going through my mind for over 24 hours now, and they cause me just as much anxiety now as they did then. Out of all the different possible scenarios I had considered for rollover, from scattered, minor failures with a few 3rd-world power outages, etc., to many, many systems (both major and minor) crashing worldwide, never had the idea of no (as in zero) failures occurred to me. Like I said, that "play" wasn't even in the pollyanna's "play book!" Yet that is exactly what happened.

I simply can't explain it, and judging from my e-mail, neither can anyone else. The word "eerie" comes to mind. I keep waiting for Rod Serling to show-up, standing in the doorway saying..."Consider broken systems that should have stopped...but didn't...a place where the impossible becomes reality."

Since the "Greenwich Mean Time" theory went up in smoke (apparently), here are a couple others that I thought of to one extent or another before either dismissing them or putting them in the highly unlikely category. But hey! Ya gotta dance with the one which brung ya, and as of today this is all I have to work with. Perhaps you had the same ideas "

Link: http://www.albertaweb.com/year2000/docs/status1.html

-- Psychotic (Y2K@19100&3900.com), January 01, 2000

Answers

Psychotic,

There are bugs all over the place , but enough Y2k testing and fixing was done in the computer intensive countries that the emerging bugs were fairly easy to fix or non critical. A year ago when i was doing Y2k testing and came here to share my experiences, Such terms as fix on failure and windowing etc were deemed foolishness, but thats whats happening now whenever a bug appears. Its simply being fixed. In the programming world bugs are an every day occurrance, it part of the job, these are the myterious hidden wires holding your car up.

As far as thrid world countries that did little or no testing or remedation, my response is two fold. First thier relieance on computer systems is much less than ours, so any problems isnt as severe by definition. Secondly there are serious problems in some contries, check out the Gambia post. To be honest tho, I felt the same way most of today when we were going through our systems today, after hours of dozens of people trying every scenario to break the systems the disbelief was overwhelming. Finally its starting to fade to a warm glowing pride that we all actually pulled it off. At least to the extent fix on failure is now a viable option.

nyc

-- nyc (nycnyc@hotmail.com), January 01, 2000.


I'm with you Psychotic. This is a good analysis. I think the answer is that the petroleum and chemical industries are completely shutdown, the banks and financial institutions are loading their software this weekend and 'remediating', and the utilities set the date back on their computers. The next two weeks are going to be interesting. In the meantime, everybody thinks that Y2k is history.

-- Psych2 (Psych2@nowhere.com), January 01, 2000.

Thanks, Psychotic!

-- Sheri (wncy2k@nccn.net), January 01, 2000.

Where did you find this on Michael Hyatt's website - I can't find anything new on there. I was able to go to the Canadian website for it...but wondering where all of you are finding the latest from Michael Hyatt

-- Sheri (wncy2k@nccn.net), January 01, 2000.

Well, here's the original "Canadian Y2K" full commentary link, anyway:

http://www .albertaweb.com/year2000/docs/status1.html

:^)

-- Me (not@here.com), January 02, 2000.



nyc. IME, code bugs are nearly always easy to fix. It's the finding that's the problem, or - more relevantly - identifying that you HAVE a problem.

I work for a phone company that claims to only release 100% bug free software to field trial let alone commercial release. Ha ha. Ha ha ha.

We're just entering field trial now.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), January 02, 2000.


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