Ice storm vs. flood

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As I recall, the Naval War College assessment of Y2K onset included four quadrants. Those I can recall off the top of my head were: Tornado, Flood, and Ice Storm.

The Tornado scenario was: Fast onset / Local damage.

The Ice Storm scenario was: Fast onset / Widespread damage.

The Flood scenario was: Slow onset / Widespread damage.

You get the idea. Most doomers on TB2000 have been believers in the Ice Storm scenario. We still may be looking at a Flood scenario. What makes me say that is that a very high percentage of IT departments have chosen to shut down over the rollover weekend and bring their systems back up in the next couple of days.

I still have no certainty about the eventual outcome of Y2K computer failures, except I know there will be many thousands of them coming in the next days and weeks. I would be very happy if the flood never rises high enough to do much damage. But I am not leaving the arena until the game is over. The home team could still both win or lose this one.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), January 01, 2000

Answers

Thanks for the post, Brian. It is a helpful perspective. There is too much premature celebration as well as surprise. We need to "wait and see."

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

God says that it will be a flood. Takes a while, it doesn't happen overnight. Sometimes it takes weeks and weeks of continual rain. Pretty soon and before you know it, you are looking all around you and all you can see is water.

I have always felt that Y2K was not about Jan.1. It is about Y(ear) 2K! I have always felt that Y2K, in an of itself, would be something that this nation could muddle through were it not for the fact that Y2K WILL NOT HAPPEN IN A VACUME. I have consistantly maintained for the last 2 years that Y2K will be a trip wire to other world events that will have profound effect on the U.S., eventually leading to nuclear and conventional on American soil.

S. David Bays, prophet

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.


above should have read:"leading to nuclear and conventional WAR on American soil." ...sdb, thankyou

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

Brian,

As always, a reasonable post. I'll be around waiting to see how the next few weeks unfold, but we have all the tools... power, phones, etc. It makes the job much easier. I'm still calling a recession for 2Q/3Q, but maybe it's just my pessimistic nature.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), January 01, 2000.


I have consistantly maintained for the last 2 years that Y2K will be a trip wire to other world events that will have profound effect on the U.S., eventually leading to nuclear and conventional war on American soil. -- S. David Bays

David, I gives me great sadness to confirm this to you. There are others saying substantially the same thing. May I recommend to you http://www.cis.upenn.edu/~homeier/y2k/words.html.

I pray you strength to not bend, and wisdom to know how to speak.

-- Peter V. Homeier (homeier@saul.cis.upenn.edu), January 01, 2000.



Peter: Others may be saying just that. I wrote it in January of '97.

But not that I am so insightful, but that Jesus working through me.

blessings, sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.


David,

You wrote, "God says it will be a flood."

Scripture clearly says that there are no modern day prophets. If you have direct access to God why did you not "ask" in advance of y2k and tell us all "exactly" how this was going to play out and save everyone a lot of money, time and arguing? If you want to prove yourself then tell us something specific that is going to happen soon so that we can check your credentials. Like what will the Dow close at Monday afternoon. God certainly knows. Can you tell us and show us that you are a true prophet?

RLW rlw6883@ipa.net

-- RLW (rlw6883@ipa.net), January 01, 2000.


RLW wrote:"Scripture clearly says that there are no modern day prophets. If you have direct access to God why did you not "ask" in advance of y2k and tell us all "exactly" how this was going to play out and save everyone a lot of money, time and arguing? If you want to prove yourself then tell us something specific that is going to happen soon so that we can check your credentials. Like what will the Dow close at Monday afternoon. God certainly knows. Can you tell us and show us that you are a true prophet?"

Dear RLW: Scripture does NOT clearly state that there are no modern day prophets. I think you need to go back and do some reading instead of listening to your pastor. But I will wait for you to provide me written evidence to support your contention. In the mean time I will provide a few to support mine.

Ephesians 4:11 ..."And He Himself gave some to be apostles, some PROPHETS, some evangelists, and some pastors and teachers."

ICorinthians 12:28 ..."And God has appointed these in the church: first apostles, second prophets, third teachers, after that miracles, then gifts of healings, ...."

Amos 4:7/9 "Surely the Lord God will do nothing, but He revealeth his secret unto his servants the prophets. The lion hath roared who will not fear? The Lord God hath spoken, who can but prophecy?"

Joel 2:28 "And it shall come to pass afterward that I will pour out My Spirit on all flesh; Your sons and your daughters shall prophecy, Your old men shall dream dreams, your young men shall see visions. And also on My menservanst and on myt maidservants I will pour out My Spirit in those days".

I Corinthians 14:22 "Wherefore tongues are for a sign, not to them that believe, but to them that believe not: but prophesying serveth not for them that believe not , but for them which believe."

I Corinthians 14:3 "But he who prophesies speaks edification and exhortation and comfort to men. He who speaks in a tongue edifies himself, but he who prophesies edifies the church."

I Corinthians 12:4&5 "There are diversities of gifts, but the same Spirit. There are differences of ministries but the same Lord"

John 16:13 "However, when He, the Spirit of truth has come, He will guide you into all truth; for He will not speak on His own authority, but whatever He hears He will speak; and HE WILL TELL YOU THINGS TO COME."

Numbers 12:6-8 "When a prophet of the LORD is among you, I reveal myself to him in visions, I speak to him in dreams. But this is not true of my servant Moses; he is faithfull in all my house, With himI speak face to face, clearly and not in riddles; he sees the form of the LORD. Why then were you not afraid to speak against my servant Moses?"

RLW, if you belong to the Lord Jesus Christ then He has given you a gift(s) whether you have discovered or used them or not.

God has given me many dozens of prophetic dreams and visions which have already come to pass in my personal life and with regard to my local church body. Some are still in the future. For the most part the church is in rebellion to God regarding the role of the prophet, much to the weakness of the church. If you belong to Jesus, then you should know that YOU HAVE DIRECT ACCESS TO GOD. If you didn't know it then please be advised, you have direct access to the throne room of Almighty God.

My email is real.

blessings, sdb

PS. You really want to know about the DOW on Monday. Shame on you. "Thou shalt not tempt the Lord thy God"

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 02, 2000.


Anyone who would dare label themselves as a "profit" is immediately suspect. A true prophet of God would have no need to identify himself for all the world to see. This is the shame of the church teaching today, that we must somehow qualify ourselves in the eyes of man in a feeble attempt to demonstrate who we really are. Men are fooled, God isn't. The prophet label betrays you to who you really are. I'm sorry for you, but I'm not one of the flock who are fooled so easily.

-- Truth (revelations16@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.

Truth said:"Anyone who would dare label themselves as a "profit" is immediately suspect. A true prophet of God would have no need to identify himself for all the world to see."

Truth, if you were a prophet (not a "profit") then you would think differently. First of all, I must make a distinction between what God had revealed to me and what I surmise or speculate about and I have done my share of surmising (to my uncredit). When God has revealed something to me then I must give Him the credit and the Glory. You see, it has to work that way. If you were a prophet and God revealed some important information to you that regards your brothers and sisters in Christ then as "a watchman on the wall" you have an obligation to do something with that knowledge. And you have an obligation to stand up and say "God told me, this is not from me, you can do with it what you will but if you ignore me then the blood is on your head not mine."

I hope that you are not burying your gifts in the ground as you are suggesting that I do with mine. The sad thing that I see is that the church is in such rebellion with regards to this issue that people like yourself are shocked that someone would have the audacity to claim to be a "prophet" when in reality there have probably been dozens who have the gift who go to your church (assuming you go) but, over the years, they have been told to shut up, been swept under the rug or were elbow'd out the door because this conflicts with the powerstructures of man or the church board.

I will not deny my gift nor be cowed into being ashamed of it by biblical illiterates or modern day pharisees of little understanding, not that this describes you.

My message has been: prepare for Y2K, war and nuclear war. Poverty and tribulation are coming to this nation. The church should be preparing to go through the Great Tribulation anyway instead of claiming the false doctrine of the pre-tribulation rapture.

Jesus, who appeared to me as He did to Joshua (with His sword upraised) has revealed this to me and has admonished me to "Give (Him) the glory". You see my friend there is a God and He is King Jesus and He is actively involved in all the affairs of this planet and He will use even you and me but we have to be willing and believe.

S. David Bays, prophet of the Lord Jesus Christ

PS: If you notice, I do not hide behind a false name because I represent my Lord Jesus. I am not some funny sounding made up name. My email is real and my Lord protects.

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 02, 2000.



Mr. Bays, you missed my point entirely. You take clear pride in calling yourself a prophet and this is your sin. You also seek to justify yourself in the eyes of man and this is your sin.

You fail to recognize that God does not regard man at all. Every "prophet" is utterly convinced that God has given them a message that they must tell the world. Maybe so, but when a man must qualify himself before men as a selected emmissary of God, his pride is evident and his message suspect.

You claim to represent Christ, but I doubt this very much. Such arrogance and pride that you possess is shameful and in no way represents the true Christ. You would do much better to recognize that God does not regard you or man, and that He can choose whomsoever He will. He does not need any man to declare himself a prophet. Any man that does comprimises any message he might have had.

-- Truth (revelations16@hotmail.com), January 02, 2000.


Truth: Such a name. Is this the pot calling the kettle...

I'm not justifying anything my friend, just stating it clearly that I am not the source of this information. If everybody followed your guidelines then the bible would never have been written and there would be no ministries.

I assure you that I am a sinful man with an evil heart. That is why I cling to my Lord Jesus. If you knew me you might even think I was an unassuming guy. But, if and when I make a claim about something prophetic then I will identify myself as prophet. That is only fair to the reader. If that sounds boastfull to you then I think you have a problem.

If a man writes something and he includes the letters: "Dr." or "MD" before or after his name should I attack the man and make him prove his credentials or should I read and consider well?

sdb

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 02, 2000.


I came back here just to see if you got it.

You didn't.

You have once again proven my point by claiming "But, if and when I make a claim about something prophetic then I will identify myself as prophet. That is only fair to the reader".

Say's who? Say's you?

Good grief, even Christ didn't go around identifying himself as the annoited one and yet you think you must!! What arrogance. Jesus taught that his message was from God, but never did he seek to justify himself in the eyes of man. You could learn from this humble lesson of the one you profess to follow.

You fail to even understand the teachings of the book you think you are a part of. None of God's men needed to wear their faith or their callings upon their sleeves for the world to see. You are repeating the errors of the Pharisees and their phylacteries.

Misrepresenting yourself as the annointed of God does nothing but boost your own ego. You accurately admit that your heart is evil, indeed it is, but do you realize that pride goeth before the fall?

Lastly, you said "If that sounds boastfull to you then I think you have a problem."

Indeed I do. Self glorifying "prophets" do nothing for the Kingdom. I have a problem with boastful prophets because not one is authentic or real, they are phonies who think they have something when they have nothing. These are wells without water, clouds that are carried with a tempest; to whom the mist of darkness is reserved for ever. For when they speak great swelling words of vanity, they allure through the lusts of the flesh, through much wantonness, those that were clean escaped from them who live in error. While they promise them liberty, they themselves are the servants of corruption: for of whom a man is overcome, of the same is he brought in bondage.

I have told you the truth and yet you refuse to hear it. Your sin is your pride, your arrogance and your vanity. Repent of these and perhaps God can indeed use you in some fashion.

-- Truth (revelations16@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.


"Truth": I think you are rather unfortunate. You need to go back and read. Jesus did claim to be "I am" (God)and that is why they had to kill him.

Please ask yourself, why the need to attack? Do you do this with your wife and those you live with? Do you tear into your children and your friends or co-workers like this or hopefully do you exhibit more love in your relationships?

My message has always been a message to a sleeping, complacent and self-satisfied church for the need to repent because God's Judgment is soon coming and you won't be raptured out before you/we experience God's correcting hand. I DO GET IT but I don't get anything but clanging gongs and noisy cymballs from you my friend. Try a little love and may I introduce you to my Lord Jesus who you appear to NOT KNOW.

S. David Bays, Prophet of the Lord

-- S. David Bays (SDBAYS@prodigy.net), January 03, 2000.


Mr. Prophet Bays,

You are incredibly stupid. I quote you scripture and tell you truth and you are too dumb to even recognize it. And you think you are a prophet of the Almighty? Incredible. You are an utter fraud and you know it. Your feeble attempts to pretend you are something when your not (as is blatantly evident) cause you to further deceive your own self.

Sometimes love is speaking the truth, something you don't want to hear and cannot accept. You are clueless to what love really is.

You understand exceedingly little of the scriptures. Christ did claim to be from God, but that is not what I said. He never sought to justify himself before man, something you clearly have a need to do. You think that putting a phoney title behind your name gives your message credence. It EXPOSES you for what you are. The recognition of Christ as the annointed one came from men, not from Christ himself, he didn't have to announce it like you do. Can't you see the difference?

Any man who has a gift from God will be made evident, but not on his own. Any man who seek to prove his ministry or his message is a fraud and is not from God.

You seek to make men see your supposed gift, which according to what you have written is extremely doubtful. You pretend that you know something when your heart has utterly deceived you into thinking you ARE something. This is your greatest sin and you appear to enjoy it.

Yes, I have a need to attack the fraudelent men of God. You all seek to justify yourselves as something more then what you are and when the truth smacks you in the face you get defensive and petulant.

I know all about America's forthcoming destruction. There are over 140 scriptures that teach this, or didn't you know that, Mr. Prophet? Did you know that God doesn't care about all those who don't know him and does not care that they will be destroyed? Did you know that the tribulations is for YOUR purification, but not for the world? Don't you know that God has utterly abandoned the "church" you think you are trying to save?

The problem with you, is you've come up against somebody that recognizes you for exactly what you are and you can't stand the light. This is your condemnation, that light has come to you but you love the darkness of your self glorification, your deeds are utterly evil because you attempt to masquerade behind good.

You hate the light, neither will you come to the light of truth otherwise your deeds would be reproved. You don't even understand what repentance is!

You are so busy pointing out the sin of the world that you forget to examine your own heart and to understand that you have utterly deceived yourself.

It is utterly impossible for you to introduce me to a man whom you do not know, nor understand his word, nor have ever met. You live in an illusion of your own making and you haven't found the truth. You have fallen for lies and false doctrine and you don't even know it.

I will no more correspond with you. You are evil and deceptive and seek to manipulate men for your own glorification. You know nothing of God.

-- Truth (revelations16@hotmail.com), January 03, 2000.



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