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Jan. 1 won't mean end to Y2K threat

By Anick Jesdanun The Associated Press

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NEW YORK  Y2K computer worries won't go away this weekend, even if nothing goes wrong. Glitches are likely weeks, even months, into the new year. And a few may linger until 2001 and beyond. The Gartner Group, a technology consulting firm, estimates only 10 percent of all Y2K failures will occur during the first two weeks of January.

Yet an Associated Press poll taken earlier this month found that only 16 percent of respondents think Y2K problems will last more than two weeks. And the number who think the problems will be confined to less than a few days has increased from 22 percent to 36 percent.

Most Y2K planners are aware that Jan. 1 is no magic date, but they fear a quiet weekend might leave the public with a false sense of security.

"There is too much focus on New Year's weekend," said Bruce McConnell, director of the International Y2K Cooperation Center. "If you think that the only time to worry about the Y2K bug is on Jan. 1, then you're underestimating the problem."

Besides having new problems appear later in the year, glitches that strike on Jan. 1 might go unnoticed initially, even after employees return to work and restart computers. The full effects might not be felt until smaller glitches compound and disrupt business supply chains.

Several weeks must pass, McConnell said, "to have a good idea just how big an event Y2K is."

Ron Weikers, a Philadelphia attorney specializing in Y2K litigation, warned companies not to declare victory right away. Such statements, he said, could come back to haunt them.

Still, New Year's Day weekend will be a peak period for Y2K problems, and most major companies and government agencies will be watching their systems closely. John Koskinen, President Clinton's top Y2K adviser, will preside over a $50 million crisis center built for this weekend.

If there are any problems involving embedded chips that control power plants and other major equipment, Koskinen said, they would most likely strike around Jan. 1.

Beyond that, most glitches will probably be administrative, causing inconveniences such as incorrect billing  but no catastrophe. And they'll be more manageable because they won't hit all at once.

The government has identified three crucial time periods:

Dec. 31, when the rest of the world celebrates the new year.

Jan. 1, when the new year arrives in the United States.

Jan. 3, the first business day, when systems experience peak usage.

Koskinen's group will also look for trouble on Feb. 29, because some computers might not recognize 2000 as a leap year. Even Dec. 31, 2000, could be problematic because some computers might not be expecting 366 days next year.

The Y2K problem stems from a long-standing practice of using only two digits to represent a year in computer programs and embedded chips. Left uncorrected, "00" might appear as 1900, throwing off systems that control power, phones and billing.

Jan. 1 is not necessarily the first time a computer will encounter 2000, and some problems already have appeared.

A few years ago, some merchants began having trouble with credit cards expiring in 2000. In early October, some federal computers needed repair because Oct. 1 starts the federal fiscal year.

The National Federation of Independent Business cites a recent survey that Y2K already hit one in 20 small businesses. Most glitches were fixed quickly, the federation said.

According to the Gartner Group, 30 percent of all failures will have occurred before 2000. And problems, growing steadily each quarter, will peak early in the new year. But they won't completely disappear until after 2001.

"Systems only fail when transactions are run," said Lou Marcoccio, Gartner's research director.

For example, glitches may arise when businesses finish their first billing cycle of the new year. That could happen anytime in January for monthly billing, or later for less frequent billing.

Some computers will also have to generate monthly, quarterly and annual reports, leaving room for problems later in the year. -----------------------------------

(You doomers are a laugh, contributing to the cause of failed predictions.)

-- Y2k Hoax (rice@beans.net), January 01, 2000

Answers

Welocome to the Polly "meme"....that all doomers believed the world would end abruptly, at the stroke of midnite.

Hoax boy, this post of yours is right in line with what a lot of forum have said all along - that Y2K would be a chronic, rather than acute event. Only time will tell if the problems will be major, or of no real signifigance.

Frankly, I am a bit surprised (and DELIGHTED, I might add) that there weren't more glitches than reported, last night, but I, for one, never expected instant Armageddon. Yes, there were some who pounded their fists on the table and insisted that the world goes up in flames, right at rollover, but I suggest you aim your posts at them, instead of these broad-banded slurs.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), January 01, 2000.