PREMATURE DECLARATIONS OF VICTORY Around the world, news commentators are now leaping to unsubstantiated conclusions about the global impact of Y2K, declaring, among other things, "All computers have passed the test!" This sweeping statement is, it seems, based on the fact that no major city has yet lost power.

While these conclusions don't say much about the long-term economic impact of Y2K, they do say something about the commentators making such statements: they still have no understanding of what Y2K is all about.

Having power on-line is a major plus. It eliminates the doomsday scenarios outright. But electric utilities don't run the computers of the economy. The Y2K status of many critical pillars of the global economy are, as of right now, entirely unknown. These pillars include global transportation (oil tankers, trains, etc.), international money settlement processes, enterprise systems, multi-vendor supply lines, the postal service, government programs, the IRS and more.

Of course, those systems, too, may turn out to be only slightly affected by Y2K. But we won't know for a few more days at the very least. Meanwhile, television programming has declared all systems to be 100% Y2K-bug-free, even before the United States and Canada entered the new millennium! While they may turn out to be right, it certainly isn't because of their research into the issue.

It is now clear that no matter what happens with Y2K in January, the national media will have very little understanding of the underlying mechanisms. As far as some news commentators are concerned, Y2K has already been solved because the lights are on.

Technical personnel know better: they're sweating out Y2K right now. They know better than to declare victory this early in the game. Even Koskinen says a declaration of victory is premature. If all the lights stay on, that's an important, successful crossing of the first milestone. It is not, however, the final chapter, and calling it that is once again misleading the American people about the truth here.

When the real Y2K impact is known, Y2K Newswire will call it like it is: no big deal, medium deal or big deal. But we will only make the call when the data is in, not based on the emotional persuasion of fireworks and people dancing in the streets.

from y2knewswire.com

-- need a drink (broke@muchfoodinwoods.sparechangeanyone), January 01, 2000

Answers

Love your address! Hahaha! Thanks for posting this essay.

-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.

IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THE POWER GRID WILL STAY UP IN 2000! I belie ve that they DID NOT ROLL THE OFFICIAL CLOCKS OVER. So, the fact that the lights are on means nothing, if their computers are picking up a bogus GMT. When I checked the Greenwich web site last night the clock was reading DECEMBER 31 1999 2845HOURS! They have now corrected the reading on the website clock, but have they actually rolled over the OFFICIAL CLOCK??? Until I know the answer to that question I will not assume anything about whether or not the power grid will stay up. They cannot keep adding hours to December 31 indefinitely, surely once they get to 9900 hours on December 31 they will have to roll it over.

-- Ann Fisher (zyax55a@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

---was just telling my girlfriend about funny topic specific email addys on this board, too. Wonder if anyone has long term collected them, I've seen some great ones! I'll try...

reallysleepy@coffespilledonkeyboardandembeddedpotato"chips"inchair.grou chy.groan

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.

LOL, Ann. That was the funniest post I've seen today. Have another beer.

-- Bad Company (laughing@thecorn.com), January 01, 2000.

When I checked the Greenwich web site last night the clock was reading DECEMBER 31 1999 2845HOURS!

Yep, the whole world is windowing back to avoid power failures! A day of reckoning is coming when the global computer system will have no idea of WHEN they are!

-- Slobby Don (slobbydon@hotmail.com), January 01, 2000.

LOL at "handle"!!!

-- Not Much (imagination@here.com), January 01, 2000.

Time told.

Dumb ass doomers.

-- GetItTogether (getitgoetherbuddy@getittogether.com), November 10, 2002.