HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!

Rick, I saw your spot this morning on MSNBC about "dodging the bullet" or "bullet proof vest". I thought you did an excellent job and explained a lot in a VERY short time.

One thing that is still nagging at me is: Why did Russia and other countries who spend small amts on fixing their power problems come through apparently as well as we did?

This question has been asked here and there, but I'm still not clear on exactly how all the foreign country slipped through this thing with all their lights shining.

And, Rick, THANK YOU FOR THIS GREAT FORUM, And all the information and help you have given us "civilians".

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

Answers

Dittos on the thanks Rick.

Also, any word as to if the utilities are using the EMS/SCADA systems as normal? Are any workarounds in being used?

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

No SCADA or EMS problems. No abnormal events at my utility, a long, boring, uneventful night.

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

Linda,

In answer to your question, the countries and utilities that spent very little money on Y2K, but still made it through Y2K without a glitch, did so for the reason the utility insiders have been saying for a long time. There just weren't that many hardware Y2K problems to begin with, and almost all of those that did exist were cosmetic date display problems. I suppose it is a whole different question on why we couldn't convince people of that fact. That can be a new thread for this board :-)

IMHO, the Y2K problem is now a dead issue. While a few Y2K problems will continue to pop up here and there, there is no credible scenario for any Y2K impacts to suddenly affect the public this Monday, 3 weeks from now, or this summer.

bob

And on a separate note

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

Thanks, Linda. You were actually up at that time?? ;-) I figured anyone watching TV at this hour on New Years day would be looking at Gilligan's Island reruns.

For those of you who did not see the broadcast, which is most of you I'm sure, the anchor started by asking the question, "Well Rick, did we dodge a bullet?" I answered her that I thought it was not so much a case of dodging a bullet but of putting on the bullet proof vest in advance of a fire fight.

We are not completely out of the woods yet. But I think it's universally acknowledged that while we can expect Y2k to take some time to fully play out, with yesterday's mostly uneventful transition of infrastructure utilities, management of future Y2k problems in all government and industry sectors becomes an infinitely easier task.

I want to acknowledge the work of the people in the trenches who actually dealt with Y2k. While I have been a frequent critic of the NERC data management and public reporting process, it's hard to argue with the end result of their industry coordination efforts. But even more importantly, I've had the opportunity to work with, consult with, and commiserate with those people in the trenches of the industry who put both their personal and professional lives on hold to tackle the problem.

Over the next few days/weeks/years, you may find yourself asking whether the issue was in fact overblown. At this point in time, it's difficult to answer that question, and there will be second guessing and poste mortem analyses for years to come. Certainly, doctral theses will be written in the years to come on the various aspects of Y2k. Some of the most revered paradigms of software / technology management have been challenged. But in the end, as one Y2k observer has so keenly noted on many occasions, dealing with the issue was never so much about the odds but about the stakes.

On a personal note, I want to close by paraphrasing an email that I sent to a friend a little while ago:

The temptation for many of us to slip back into a personal or professional complacency will be great. I equate it to beating an addiction such as smokes or booze. 100% of smokers try to quit at one time or another. Maybe 20 or 25% are ultimately successful in the long term.

The human species has a tendency to slip back to an original level of comfort. Some of us will take what we've learned technically and the independence that we've achieved as a result of Y2k to even higher levels. Some of us will slip back into the folds of the system that we had begun to put at arms distance, because it's the path of least resistance.

As things play out over the next few days, I'll be putting together some thoughts and "post event analysis". Until then, I wish you the best, and the warmest of New Years to you and yours.

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

Thanks, Rick. I caught the last 15 seconds or so this afternoon. What I really want to know is this: can you hook me up with Soledad? ;-)

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

Lane,

Soledad is married.

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

So is Mrs. Core! ;)

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000