My wife and I decided to do a media-blackout yesterday - we kept the computer and TV and radio off. We knew nothing of the events transpiring around the world. We did this to spend the day in prayer with our kids and essentially be together as a family, instead of huddled around listening for word of problems. (We had a great day!)

This morning I get up and - ta-da! - Y2K was immediately a non-event for the most part, which confirms what we got in a phone call from a friend yesterday.

We prepared extensively for this: went rural, got the wood stove, bought a Berkefeld, got canned goods and lots of seeds, bought a treadle sewing machine and fabric, etc. You get the idea.

I also put my professional and personal reputation on the line. I was vocal in my concerns with co-workers and friends/family.

I'm sure that some people who read this will want to respond with comments like "moron" and so on. Some of my co-workers and even those close to me might think the same thing.

I talked with my wife yesterday about this after we got the phone call. What if this turned out to be no big deal? We'd discussed this before, but it was always in the context of "what if" and not something either of us seriously considered. (I side with Ed Yardeni on the notion of "miracle.") I have to admit, I find my sensibilities jogged a little differently this morning.

As we talked, we discussed how three waves of "events" come with this: one was embedded chips/systems (which was the biggest and most sudden threat), the second is JIT problems (which we'll know about in the next few months), and the third is bad data transfer (which I believe has a longer life-span and more delayed reaction than the first two).

We don't regret our preparations. Our five children have ten Iowa acres on which to play, instead of a tight corner lot on a busy street in Charlotte, North Carolina. As I write this, I'm warmed by the heat of our wood stove, which heats our whole house and has a warmth no furnace can match. Our garden is wonderful (there's a lot to be learned in a garden).

All in all, we determined that life is infinitely better - no question about it. So I don't have any problems with our preps. And hey, we're ready for any snow storm, electric outage, water problem, whatever.

Any problem that I might have stems from possibly suffering mud in the eye on this one. And I thought a lot about this yesterday. How important was it for me to be right? Being right meant a lot of people would be hurt. I think I can afford to be wrong. And while the second and third waves of this have yet to arrive and no one can claim victory over the bug yet, if the electricity is on and life is fairly normal, then most problems due to this will be worked out.

Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini wrote a book called "Inevitable Illusions," in which he discusses from the view of a cognitive scientist how mistakes of reason rule our minds. One axiom he puts forth is an overconfidence in expertise. The more you work within a given field or subject matter, the more likely you are to believe that you are right in your opinion. I write software for a living, so I scoffed at the guffaws from people when I would share my opinion about Y2K. They may have been right and if I suffer mud in the eye, it is at the expense of my own overconfidence in my expertise.

Nonetheless, at the potential expense of mud in my eye I come away having examined my life through a different pair of glasses. As we talked yesterday, my wife and I both agree that we take far less for granted. Regardless of how this turns out, we've found a simpler and better life. My daughter told me a few months ago that our land is the one place on earth she'd label "paradise." If a few "moron" comments would be the price for that, then I can afford it.

And while I still have questions about the health of fiat money and other things, it matters little. Whether life continues as it does today or falls in the crapper tomorrow, my family will get along just fine.

-- Brett (savvydad@netins.net), January 01, 2000

Answers

moron

-- bob (bob@bob.bob), January 01, 2000.

Brett,

Excellent points!

Besides, as folks were saying last night, it really is TOO SOON to tell. I'm highly encouraged that there visible grid failures last night, but I don't think that we're out of the woods, yet. Happy New Year to you and yours!

-- (Ladybuckeye_59@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.

WEREN'T visible grid failure. Proofread, LB, Proofread!

-- (ladybuckeye_59@yahoo.com), January 01, 2000.

Moron? why. Whats wrong with attempting to protect you and your family? I hope this ("this" is not over) event will not effect your decision next time.

I imagine that some jerk(s) will repond with stupid and mean remarks. Fuc* em.

-- voynik (voynik@aol.com), January 01, 2000.

No Bob, Brett is not the moron! Y2k was a valuable lesson to many of us. Y2k taught me the whole idea of self-reliance. I liked what I have learned. I like the idea of a simpler lifestyle. I like the idea that you are responsible for yourself. Yes, Y2k cost me time and money but both were well spent.

-- Ruth Edwards (REath29646@aol.com), January 01, 2000.

I am forever changed. Although I still believe, as I have from the beginning, that we will see major economic impacts in the coming months - I am sincerely grateful that I can still take a hot shower this morning. What I learned this past year and what I have acomplished - including letting go of the shallow worldliness in my life and cultivating a closer walk with God - is only the foundation of what I hope to acomplish as this year unfolds. I will not give up my preps, I will not go back to my old thought pattens. I am ready for whatever comes -more wary - more alert, more solid in my beliefs. I am truly appreciative for the changes in me. Happy New Year dear cyber friends -take the lessons learned this year and build on them.

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), January 01, 2000.

Brett, Very well said. Only the people who gave thought and consideration to their actions can feel relieved and have a feeling of having grown from the expierence. I feel cautious relief and satisfaction. lenny

-- Lenny (chmielecki@worldnet.att.net), January 01, 2000.

I kept very quiet, except with my sister, about my preps and Y2K. I started prepping 2 years ago and I don't regret doing what I did. It was actually fun, stressful at times, and I learned a lot. I don't know what the following days or months will bring, and at this point in time it does not matter to me. You are right Brett, my family will get along just fine too.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 01, 2000.

Man, I just can't believe Brett is going over the brink here! Overconfidence in expertise? Huh? Maybe I should just drive off into the sunset without a map because consulting the map may be "just overconfidence in the expertise" of topology. Piattelli-Palmarini is an inexcusable Calvinist.

C'Mon...this thing's JUST STARTING! The sheer weight of errors and heroic spin WILL wear thin at last, and the true bright colors of a disaster will come shining through despite the hypnotic polly dreamworld VIRUS we all experienced on TV tonight. Gee, Brett didn't even watch and still caught it!

An avalanche begins very slowly with imperceptible shifts and tiny movements, yet its climax is much later than its beginning. Don't sell the farm and give the food and seed away--you were right! Just wait till the first week of March, and all these warm fuzzies will seem like the faraway dreamworld it really is.

-- Boyddroid (boyd@indieavenue.com), January 01, 2000.

Voynik, you failed to see the humor in my 'moron' comment. I think Brett has the proper view of this mess. I can only hope that I can reach his level of acceptance.

-- bob (bob@bob.bob), January 01, 2000.

That was not me... it was the same chickenshit jerk who has been occasionally posting under my handle for the last couple of weeks. *I* on the other hand, pretty much agree with what you have to say, Brett.

-- Bob (bob@bob.bob), January 01, 2000.

Hi Bret,

Our family did the same thing around 95 when we thought the stock market was going to go over the nation debt thing. When y2k came up we didn't panic at all because of the lifestyle we had adopted. I was a little suprised and wondered how this could really be absolutely nothing as it appears to be. It's not completely over yet. But I wouldn't trade the lifestyle we have found. We have a wonderful church now, wonderful friends a peaceful 20 acres and We don't have a heart attack everytime something happens in "Russia". I believe God lead us out here...maybe we just don't exactly why yet. But if something comes up fast we don't need to panic, we are ready. I don't think you made the wrong choice.

-- Moore dinty Moore (dac@ccrtc.com), January 01, 2000.

Hey "Bob" ( the one with the moron comment)... why don't you find your own handle to post under? Really, it isn't that hard to come up with your own...

-- Bob (bob@bob.bob), January 01, 2000.

Ok.Truce

-- Gary (nada@rollover.com), January 01, 2000.

Y2K opened the doors to Alternative Energy. Never knew how an inverter worked, never knew how a battery bank could power an entire home. Never knew how a generator could run a home automatically, charge a battery bank, then shut off automatically and run the home on the batteries.

I went the whole nine yards. At this time, it is not cost effective to go completely off grid, so now, solar panels.

The Y2k event made me do what I should of done for years. Prepare. I went through 2 ice storms hear in the North Country, and multiple Typhoons overseas, never prepared, and always, the family suffered through it. Fortunately, the weather was moderate during the last ice storm. My family was without power for over 3 weeks.

Yes, you'll here from the Boys "Told Ya!", But they are not responsible for your family. You are. If I had a 2nd chance, knowing what I know now: Would I go the extreme? Probably not, but then, I would never know the world of Alternative Energy. cork

-- cork (corcorab@hotmail.com), January 01, 2000.

This sums it up.

Until we see Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, I.R.S., to name a few, operating with precision and dependability, we are very vulnerable to an economic nightmare. Government accounts for a huge segment of employment in this country. Add to this the incredible amounts of money that is issued into circulation in the form of benefits and such, and the truly amazing unanswered questions as to where the U.S. is at this point remain unanswered. I have viewed my preps as not only "meal insurance" against interruptions in the supply chain, but as an economic hedge against rising prices in the months ahead. I cannot believe I am alone in thinking this way. Interest rates are going to march upward; housing may well take a hit. Mortgage brokers will be doodling on pads of paper as they realize there is less and less business(to name but one example of an industry vulnerable to rising interest rates).

Most of the really important problems, e.g. Def. Dept., pipelines that were shut down (and may be pesky to restart), will be kept from public view as a matter of national security.

And what about the many computer viruses that may be running around, looking for infrastructure to disrupt? Seems there are MANY more things yet unknown to hoist a victory flag over this country and y2k. (The only victory so far is preventing massive public panic;well, there is the additional victory of propaganda over a national audience--YECH!)

2 very alarming things to me are: 1)The overall complacency of our nation(not going totally unnoticed by folks like China and Sadam) and, 2) HOW EASY IT IS TO STILL MAKE PRUDENCE TO APPEAR LIKE FOOLISHNESS! An extra comment on this 2nd point is the incredible amount of folks reporting they feel foolish and embarrassed. If you really want to feel/experience both of these emotions, then chuck your preps. and begin running around trying to get folks who prepared for NOTHING, to accept you back into their "fold of foolishness". Then, when fallout begins to become apparent, you will realize the true meaning of foolish, embarrassed, and UNPREPARED!

Just as the coverage of y2k was so incredibly shallow and simplistic in the press for the past few YEARS, so too is the thinking that we are over the worst of y2k. Just cuz my T.V. works, doesn't mean it is "all-clear!". And one night of CNN pics. of lights on all over the world hardly gets me feeling even remotely confident that things will not be "so bad". (This line of reasoning wouldn't work on a 6 year old child.)

The most unfortunate side-effect of y2k roll-over so far (IMHO) is the "innoculation effect" that is occurring among some who prepped. How willing will they prepare or stay prepared for the unforeseen yet not on this nation's radar screen?

In closing, I will add that this nation is in and will remain in a window of vulnerability for some time. Just as a cancer patient never knew the day, time and hour that a tumor began to form within themselves, so too this nation appears to be generally clueless as to our vulnerabilities to attack and outright breakdowns in necessary infrastructure that are now present. When rollover occurred, every unremediated line of code became a cancer cell in this country's economy. Whether the Nation's "immune system" of bug busters can heal all of these conditions, before they grow into a sizeable tumor remains a HUGE question, at least to me.

I therefore will remain ready to "roll with the punches". Old habits are hard to break: Why let CNN and the "crowd of fools" do your thinking for you?

-- (He Who) Rolls with Punches (JoeZi@aol.com), January 01, 2000.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.

Dinty Moore and others:

I too feel that God led us out here. If you knew the story about how we found our home, it's pretty hard to argue that God wasn't in the midst of that. Not sure why we're here, but we love the people in our church and you're right: no matter what happens in the world, we'll pretty much take it in stride. We don't need pears from Peru or natural gas from Enron.

Boydroid:

We're not done with our preps (or continued lifestyle change, whatever you want to call it.) This breather gives us time to finish fencing and get some chickens and sheep. It also allows more time to figure out how to do all of this. So we're not eating through the food we stored or selling the seeds. This is a lifestyle change, not just a reactionary caution.

-- Brett (savvydad@netins.net), January 01, 2000.

this lull gives me time to rotate my stock of gasoline,, would LOVE to be free of the grid,, may have time to go solar/wind yet.

paul

-- paul (paul@pldi.net), January 01, 2000.

Well said, Brett, and as great as today seems to be with everything normal, it is wise to be caution in the upcoming weeks. There is a lot more to be feared from Y2K problems than immediate shutdown events from the rollover.

Remember, as has been discussed countless times on this forum: It was never so much the odds as it was the stakes.

Day 1.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), January 01, 2000.

Brett,

your absolutely correct. Our story is pretty wild too about how we got here...definately not the norm. We have many of the major preps but there were a few things I've still wanted to do. We are being allowed more time. I just kept praying that I would still be able to work during the next year if things were going to get bad. I see that prayer being answered. I am trying to get debt free and when things go down I will feel alot better if I have reached that goal. God has done amazing things in that realm recently and I had a hard time believing that I wouldn't get to finish...I think America will be judged sometime in the future....Just my thoughts...I don't talk about it much especially here but it will happen.

-- Moore dinty Moore (dac@ccrtc.com), January 01, 2000.

Neither one of those jerks were me. Please quit using my handle. Get your own. I am the true Bob. Hey, Brett...pay no attention to them. I like your view and agree with it. You are not a moron!

-- Bob (bob@bob.bob), January 01, 2000.

Well said Brett- I agree completely. I have no regrets about any preps I've made- do you think I should regret paying off the mortage or not being in debt? Or having food around to eat? And it's food we do and will eat- 100% of it. And the feeling of being prepared for most anything is great- if I had no income for the next few months it wouldn't matter much- could still feed the family, heat the house, etc. I will never go back to being unprepared. No regrets here. Don't let anyone make you feel stupid.

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.com), January 01, 2000.

Bob;

you're starting to look verrrrrrry schizoid! Stop answering yourself before you eat the cat and your wife gets as pissed as your kids!

p.s. - cats "don't" taste like chicken

-- Beached Whale (beached_whale@hotmail.com), January 01, 2000.

Brett -- Add my "well said" to the others. Peace of mind is its own reward for wise behavior. I just know that the trolls on this forum do not have small children at home, and the pollies, well...

Last week we found out that the guy who used to mow our lawn in the city was murdered in a driveby shooting, just around the corner from our old house, two months ago. While my daughter and I were walking the deer away from the garden and back into our woods.

April -- showers, yes! Hot showers were the first thing I thought of when midnight passed so brightly!

Andy -- your old eloquence is coming through again. In 3rd world countries where gov has controlled prices, when there is an announcement that gasoline prices will be raised, people run out to stock up on EVERYTHING, because they know ALL prices will rise soon. An investment with a 20-50% return, within the year. JIT was designed for businesses to save money, not for people who get hungry.

Our home was a "we were led there" find, too. The seller had just fired his listing agent and put up a nearly-invisible plywood sign to advertise it. We had no competition in getting it -- it was "ours" from the time we saw the sign.

We too are grateful for "the breather" in getting this place working, even after a year here. There's always more to do on a farm, and Spring is not far away.

-- jor-el (jor-el@krypton.uni), January 01, 2000.

WE moved to a log cabin 4 years ago. Nothing to do with y2k. Since then we started raising chickens pigs cows goats . all on 5 acres we buy grain and hay. Building barns fencing and spliting wood have been wonderful and when y2k came along it allowed us to become more selfreliant. we discovered we were the only one who didn't have a generator so we bought one. When my electric stove broke 3 weeks ago we replaced it with a propane stove we already had a back up propane heater for our cabin that we only used when we traveled. Now we have time to hook up our 2 solar water panels that we got from a friend for free to heat our chicken coop so they lay better and more often during our cold winters in ohio. We stocked up on feed for the animals (the first year on our mountain we had to haul every thing up by sled) now we have 4weel drive truck with snow plow.Last summer we built an old fashion root celler and stocked it with home canned food from our garden. so what if nothing happened we have a life style that we both love and are 12 miles from a major city we can start looking for some good buys on things that we have not yet purchased LONG LIVE THE RURAL LIFESTYLE.

-- Tommy &Barb Jones (tjones@accinternet.com), January 01, 2000.

Beautifully said, Brett. I agree with all of what you wrote. I too believe that God has lead us all here for a purpose. That purpose unfolds during our lifetimes. If it has brought you and your family closer together, what does it matter what others think. It is never wrong to be more prepared and secure.

God bless you.

-- Ynott (Ynott@incorruptible.com), January 01, 2000.

Brett, your post struck a chord with me. I, too,have a story about how I believe God led me and my family to our "retreat". I do not regret spending the $$$ or time and sure learned a lot about myself and life in general by doing this. I sit looking out on a peaceful pasture, a small pond, and a sunny day knowing that God always KNEW and brought me here anyway. None of us knows what tommorrow will bring and we have a responsibility to care (as best we can) for family and others. I hope I spend the next year eating my stored food or even sharing it with the homeless shelter, but I will always be as prepared as I am able to be. And, yes, bardou, I will also be missed at Walmart! I have LOTS of TP!

I believe the debt free status we have and the "cushion" of stuff will enable me to focus on what I am called to do. That is a real blessing. Having lived in NYC for 8 yrs. and run in the rat race, I am thankful, thankful, thankful to be here.

I have enjoyed "lurking" here for a loooong time. Hope we can continue for a while.

God bless you all in this so far peaceful New Year of 19100!

-- dr. ben (benalurker@usa.net), January 01, 2000.

There is a God. He works in mysterious ways. One thing He always wants is for people to get closer to Him. Because of this some have. Perhaps He was speaking to those who had ears.

We don't know what has happened yet.

-- Michael Erskine (Osiris@urbanna.net), January 01, 2000.

Hi to all of you,

Gosh, it was great reading all your experiences. They all seem so similiar. Maybe we should keep a thread like this going..there seems to be something here. Blessings to you all. I will keep you posted on anything I hear from this end. We think there is going to be a supply chain problem in the future. Time will tell but the longer I have time to work the better off we are. He would work no matter what with his IT skills. I started more rotating things today to replace the older things since we seem to have bought some time on some things.

-- Moore dinty Moore (dac@ccrtc.com), January 01, 2000.

The threat of Y2K was the impetus, and the CDC rollover was NOT the end of, my preparations for a better life. I am one of those stuck in the everyday rut of working for a living and trying to get ahead. I prepped for a month of outages with shelter, food, water, heat, light, sanitation, protection, etc. but the imminent danger of 1/1/2000 kept me from doing many other things that I will, hopefully, have time to do now, without a deadline. I make a good living and have a job that I can do almost anywhere, but I feel like I have been working for the banks, instead of for myself and my family, since so much of my income goes to interest - mortgage, credit cards, spending too much on "things." Changes I have been working on and will continue working on include: 1. Relocating - getting out of the Police State of California. 2. Getting out of debt and always paying as I go. 3. Completing some additional education that will open up some new opportunities. 4. Continuing my self-education on important things - gardening, home food prep, rather than eating out so much, solar power, getting off the grid, etc. 5. Spending quality time with my children and grandkids rather than all sitting together watching T.V. 6. Staying in touch with old friends that I have drifted away from while chasing "The Dream." 7. Finishing my 99% completed novel.

This forum has been a Godsend. I have learned so much and found others who think and feel as I do.

-- MsBird (cbirdrunr@fedup.com), January 01, 2000.