A few things that seem to have been forgotten tonightgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Oil The postal service Large systems (mainframes, etc.) Banking Ships Chemical manufacturing Heavy industry
There are others, but those spring to mind at the moment.
None of them can in any way be presumed to be OK on the basis of the grid staying up over the crossover. And, all of them are crucial. And, they're all *still* at risk.
So let's feel good that the lights stayed on, but let's not kid ourselves that we *know* that everything's fine.
-- Ron Schwarz (email@example.com), January 01, 2000
Stinking HTML *grumble*
That first line in the previous post was *supposed* to be a list of items, not a non-sentence.
-- Ron Schwarz (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 01, 2000.
even the airlines--why did the UPS plane have to do an emergency landing? only 45 planes flew. most before the rollover.
look at hershey's. their distribution system is screwed up and they have been dealing with it for months and lost revenue/stock value.
what about all those non-mission critical applications???????? 97% of the systems?
-- tt (email@example.com), January 01, 2000.
That's correct sir - business as usual is still a few days off. Reports are finally beginning to trickle down about small snafu's. It's going to take a few weeks to get a detailed assessment on the scope of " " - whatever you want to call it. Enjoy all the good news while it lasts.
-- Rick (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 01, 2000.
Midnight can be viewed as stage one of the effects of y2k.
Unfortunately some information may not be available from relatively closed societies such as china for weeks. Russia exists across 12 of the 24 time zones. It was good news that reactors in the first 2 time zones appear unaffected so far. Of critical impotance will be the embedded chips in their gas delivery systems. They are major suppliers to Germany etc. of fuel.
The second phase will begin next week when businesses and gov't agencies that are shut down now start up.
The third phase will play out as any effects on supply lines that will be reflected in company earnings in the 1st quarter.
The news so far is very encouraging, but it's not over by any stretch of the imagination.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 2000.
Couldn't agree more. The grid, telco swithes, water tratment, nat gas chain are managed by realtime process control systems which are built to be extremely fault tolerant. Plus, the incentive to be truly ready in these areas(and I believe banking as well) is a survival proposition. Businsess and Gov management systems are econopolitical propositions. The probability that all these types of systems have been completely shaken out is remote in the extreme -- it's patently ridiculous. And the sheer impact to productivity due to the WW simultaneity of even a small % of function point/data file failures will have an undesirable impact on GDP...possibly sending it neg. for a while. I have always believed(and still do) that this is the most likely scenario. We must ask ourselves honestly and with informed thought whether we would truly bet against such an outcome based on the real history of large scale software development projects...none of which in history compares to the ongoing Y2K project.
One other thing re: Gary North's hypotheses. Greed, fear and the pursuit of power(without analyzing the psych underpinnings) have been the motivating forces in individual and group behavior since the dawn of recorded history. The U.S. IS an empire like many before it. It's methods of growing and maintaining power are technological and military superiority obtainable only through ever increasing div of labor AND by creating indebtedness in "emrging" nations. We did "plan" this agenda and the Fed Reserve/fiat $ and fract. resv. banking were created with this in mind. It's a far better approach than conquer, occupy and literal enslavemet although we did need to pass through that horrific stage in our early years to establish an initial base of power. The truth is that the world has never existed without a dominant power and the prevailing dominant power has always been supplanted in some way and it's neve been painless. Are we to be the first to change this. If so then we have changed human nature(but I doubt it). Ignoring these historical facts does not make them false. Moreover, in hindsight there have always been indications of the beginning of the end and they are always connected to final actions of complacent arrogance and there are always an intuitive few who see it. God will choose the final end and we won't have a clue about that. But we choose our temporal political ends and I'm sure that throughout history the subjective experience of it must have felt like the end of time for the participants. It seems that Gary has gone to great lengths to NOT promulgate a theory of TEOTWAWKI or the imminant demise of civilization. But he has put his time, effort and money where his mouth is and for that he has earned my respect and attention.
Gary's hypotheses seem to me to attempt to blend all of these facts of history with current events and trends and are clear cogent and plausible. At no point in his dialogue have I witnesses Gart imposing his theories on anyone. Rather, I have heard a reasonable intellectual framework from which plausible scenarios were constructed. How you usw it it up to you.
-- Wave (email@example.com), January 01, 2000.
Until we see Medicare, Medicaid, Food Stamps, I.R.S., to name a few, operating with precision and dependability, we are very vulnerable to an economic nightmare. Government accounts for a huge segment of employment in this country. Add to this the incredible amounts of money that is issued into circulation in the form of benefits and such, and the truly amazing unanswered questions as to where the U.S. is at this point remain unanswered.
I have viewed my preps as not only "meal insurance" against interruptions in the supply chain, but as an economic hedge against rising prices in the months ahead. I cannot believe I am alone in thinking this way. Interest rates are going to march upward; housing may well take a hit. Mortgage brokers will be doodling on pads of paper as they realize there is less and less business(to name but one example of an industry vulnerable to rising interest rates).
Most of the really important problems, e.g. Def. Dept., pipelines that were shut down (and may be pesky to restart), will be kept from public view as a matter of national security.
And what about the many computer viruses that may be running around, looking for infrastructure to disrupt? Seems there are MANY more things yet unknown to hoist a victory flag over this country and y2k. (The only victory so far is preventing massive public panic;well, there is the additional victory of propaganda over a national audience--YECH!)
2 very alarming things to me are: 1)The overall complacency of our nation(not going totally unnoticed by folks like China and Sadam) and, 2) HOW EASY IT IS TO STILL MAKE PRUDENCE TO APPEAR LIKE FOOLISHNESS! An extra comment on this 2nd point is the incredible amount of folks reporting they feel foolish and embarrassed. If you really want to feel/experience both of these emotions, then chuck your preps. and begin running around trying to get folks who prepared for NOTHING, to accept you back into their "fold of foolishness". Then, when fallout begins to become apparent, you will realize the true meaning of foolish, embarrassed, and UNPREPARED!
Just as the coverage of y2k was so incredibly shallow and simplistic in the press for the past few YEARS, so too is the thinking that we are over the worst of y2k. Just cuz my T.V. works, doesn't mean it is "all-clear!". And one night of CNN pics. of lights on all over the world hardly gets me feeling even remotely confident that things will not be "so bad". (This line of reasoning wouldn't work on a 6 year old child.)
The most unfortunate side-effect of y2k roll-over so far (IMHO) is the "innoculation effect" that is occurring among some who prepped. How willing will they prepare or stay prepared for the unforeseen yet not on this nation's radar screen?
In closing, I will add that this nation is in and will remain in a window of vulnerability for some time. Just as a cancer patient never knew the day, time and hour that a tumor began to form within themselves, so too this nation appears to be generally clueless as to our vulnerabilities to attack and outright breakdowns in necessary infrastructure that are now present. When rollover occurred, every unremediated line of code became a cancer cell in this country's economy. Whether the Nation's "immune system" of bug busters can heal all of these conditions, before they grow into a sizeable tumor remains a HUGE question, at least to me.
I therefore will remain ready to "roll with the punches". Old habits are hard to break: Why let CNN and the "crowd of fools" do your thinking for you?
-- (He Who) Rolls with Punches (JoeZi@aol.com), January 01, 2000.
yes, i agree. Remember Dale Way?
-- JoseMiami (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 01, 2000.
The *fat lady* may not sing for another month, or more...
The State of California bought time by paying all State employees a couple of days early. Won't have tangible evidence of no problems there until the end of the next pay period.
My Visa card statement, likewise, came a week early for the first time ever. (Usually when it arrives it is *due* the following week).
How many other groups/agencies performed January business in the end of December to *buy another month* of time to FOF?
-- G (email@example.com), January 01, 2000.
Ohhhh ... I think that BIG FAT BITCH is well and truly singin now!!
-- bigfatbitch (firstname.lastname@example.org), November 10, 2002.