Sim results for UAPC for single deck : LUSENET : Team SF : One Thread

Single deck game, S17, DAS (same game as Slots-O-Fun)

The software says "Dealt to x cards remaining..." I asked Stanford if this was a cut card effect, and he said yes it was.

These were played with the UAPC all index numbers between -10 and +10.

The games was flat bet at $10. I had the simulator sim until the standard error was below .03, which turned out to be about 15 million hands each, which I suppose is a "short" sim.

Here's what I found.

Cut card at 24 cards remaining: Edge 0.38; Sigma 1.16; DI 3.27

Cut card at 18 cards remaining: Edge 0.57; Sigma 1.16; DI 4.89

Cut card at 12 cards remaining: Edge 0.89; Sigma 1.16; DI 7.65

Ths simulator also had results in dollar amounts... ie: Edge of .57 means a win rate of $5.70 an hour (remember I flat bet $10) and Sigma of 1.16 means a SD/100 of $116.

This was heads up with the dealer, playing one hand. With a rule of 7 game, playing 2 hands you will definitely get the pen you need. Rule of 6 playing two hands would not quite get you there, so I am going to do a new sim where you flat bet $10, and drop to $5 below a TC of 2. I also have a whole world of other stats such as short term max win, max loss, um.... I don't know. There's a million stats.

Rob: I keep Excite PAL on all day at work, so if you get online between 9 am and 5 pm we can chat as long as I'm not too busy. I might leave early today because of the holiday.


-- Anonymous, December 31, 1999


A couple things I forgot

PBA does not allow for a side count of aces, so when I do the sim of dropping to a $5 equal to and below TC -2, it will not be quite as good.

Also, one must remember that with these sims it includes everything between -10 and +10, ie... splitting 10's, doubling on A,9, etc.


-- Anonymous, December 31, 1999

Sim results for single deck with a 2 to 1 spread

I ran two more sims with UAPC with all index numbers between -10 and +10. The game is still the same as the Slots-O-Fun game. Nothing has been changed except that the player bets $10 of the top, but lowers to $5 bet on TC of -2 or below. I am calling this a 2 to 1 spread, rather than calling it a 1 to 2 spread. This is a very non-aggresive spread.

On these sims I used a standard error of .02 instead, so these are between 40 and 50 million hand sims.

I noticed that next to the sigma term it reads, "Standard deviation per hand per initial average wager." SO on these sims the SD/100 was less than 100 times the Sigma. For example in the second sim, Sigma is 1.20, but the SD/100 in dollars is $101.00.

Cut card at 24 cards remaining: Edge 0.71; Sigma 1.19; DI 5.95

Cut card at 18 cards remaining: Edge 0.94; Sigma 1.20; DI 7.88

For the second sim here listed, the program gives a ROR for a 200 unit ($10 units) BR of 7.18%, and a ROR for a 400 unit Bankroll of 0.52%!

I want to impress upon you all the strength of playing single deck. Double 21 plays UAPC with all index numbers, which is tailor-made for this game. Look at this. This is a "play-all" with a very weak 2 to 1 spread.

I can run sims of our 1 to 6, and 1 to 10 spreads, etc... but I believe we should get to playing single deck often when we have the opportunity. I will admit these are favorable rules that can only be found at SOF, and most people play a Level I Ace-reckoned count, but even so, there won't be very much to overcome to have an edge.

I strongly suggest trying this method. I also believe that if the player is flat-betting, then it will be possible to get deeper penetration even betting black chips or whatever. They may not be as afraid to give you a decent game if you are rarely varying your bets, or infrequently change your bet size by a small amount.

Ok, I hope I didn't sound like I was on a soap-box. I just get really excited when I see stuff like this.

If there are any sims you guys want me to run, let me know.


-- Anonymous, December 31, 1999


Great game, especially for a count like mine: HiOpt11 with side of aces and sevens. Can you sim the side of sevens? Thanks for the input. jim

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

Sim results

This game gives an advantage to the basic strategy player off the top.This is obvious that any counting system (even the poorer you could find)will beat it with a flat bet. The real question is : what kind of action will SOF accept before barring occurs ? Flat betting $100, $200, $500 ....?

-- Anonymous, January 01, 2000

(D-M) Some answers

Yes. This game is positive off the top, BUT, the edge is so miniscule that the Risk vs. Reward is still prohibitive. Bill H. plays UAPC with ACE side count, and knows all his index numbers, that's why I chose his.... not to mention the fact that it may very well be the most powerful of the "popular" counts for play at single deck.

How much will "Slots" tolerate?? That I don't know, but if you're flat betting, and hitting 13's against 6's and stuff like that, I think you'd be okay for a while. I mean yes, maybe these strategy deviations would bring bad attention upon you, but I don't think so. I think most casino personnel look at a guy making these ugly plays, and don't worry about him anymore.

The program can not do a side count of 7's. It can not even do a side count of aces!! I have been using PBA. I will get another simulator installed that should be able to do all these things... except I am really not sure about the 7 side count. That's a tough one.

Another thing... 4 Queens has almost the same game as S-O-F.... the only difference is 4 Queens hits soft 17. Therefore, the SOF game is slightly positive off the top, and the 4 Queens game is slightly negative. Either way you multilevel count people, if you're sharp on your index numbers, can destroy these games with very small spreads.



-- Anonymous, January 03, 2000

this is very interesting material.

lest anyone think otherwise, i just want to say that this method of playing single-deck is NOT authorized for team-play.

-- Anonymous, January 24, 2000

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