Ed:

Just wondering if you have any thoughts or opinions about what we we've seen so far and how relevant these experiences will be to what happens to us in North America. Haven't heard anything from you so far today. Listen, if you were essentially wrong on the embedded systems and utility failures, then be a proffessional and say so.

Being a developer/designer/analyst for 20 years I know that Y2K was not a hoax, but even I don't understand why the countries that had not prepared which have rolled over have not had any signficant failures. However I do think once the business systems start posting transactions the databases and software for them should not behave like the embedded systems so far.

My guess on what has happened so far is probably what I posted a while ago in:

My guess.. that (although my guess about 28.dec.99 was wrong):

My guess is that most embedded chips are tracking time for a relatively short duration - i.e. 1 sec to 30 days without too much concern for the actual date, although the date is needed for accuate calculations. Once all chips storing dates and times that are used in calculations have moved to the 00 year time frame, the calculations will be fine.

I now think they the vast majority of them only track time and count the the time rather than have a date in them.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 31, 1999

Answers

ANother thing to keep in mind about all of this is that LOTS of things are being deliberately shut down as of New Year's Eve, just to avoid the tiny accidental chance that the whole world would be able to watch them explode in real time...

e.g., ATM machines in Japan and Hong Kong (I think), airline flights, trains, factories, refineries, chemical plants, dozens of US seaports, elevators (basically every elevator in every high-rise building in NYC) etc etc etc. I'm not suggesting that this is a bad thing, and I obviously don't know if they would have caused problems if they had been left in an operational state during the rollover. In any case, it's possible that we may see some embedded system failures when things are finally turned on tomorrow, or the next day, or Jan 3rd.

And we haven't gotten to Eastern Europe yet... we haven't heard diddly- squat from Africa yet. We don't know about South America yet. And I have to say that I'm not at all convinced that we've heard what's really going on in Indonesia, India, Pakistan, and a few other Asian countries yet.

Seems to me that unless we see something go "boom" on live TV, or witness an entire city go black in front of our eyes, we're not likely to know or see whatever problems might be occurring. The TV crews standing out in front of Sydney Harbor, for example, won't have any way of knowing what's going on inside the computer room in various office buildings and control centers around the place.

One might read between the lines of what I've just written, and infer that I'm also suggesting that corporate PR flaks and government spokesmen might not be telling us the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Perish the thought! Banish such negative insinuations! But it is just conceivably possible that they don't KNOW yet what the true state of affairs is -- except for the fact that we have not yet seen any large, visible, tangible evidence of failure.

Even a committed optimist like John Koskinen suggests that it might be a little premature to declare victory at this point. But if that does turn out to be the case, I'll breathe just as large a sigh of relief as the most outspoken and vocal polly...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 31, 1999.

Look at the thread ABOVE yours called: Ed Yourden could you please... and you will get your answer.

-- Jenny (HomeFor@Good.Now), December 31, 1999.

I.S. Ed answered this same question on another post....may want to check it out...someone asked for Ed to respond...

-- Mia (amibeth@hotmail.com), December 31, 1999.

What makes you think Ed is here watching? Give it some time. Jeesh.

-- anonymous (anonymous@anonymous.com), December 31, 1999.

IS

If you go look at my final report.. I cite the Tava report... they cite on oil co problem with embeddeds that took 31 days to show up. Until then, the system seemed to function as normal... see my part 2 of the report to get the link... It is case ex #4... Oil company... read it thru...to realize that time gaps that can occur from roll to recognition as a problem. Some are immediate, some are delayed.

RC

-- RC (racambab@mailcity.com), December 31, 1999.