Yeah, we're down to the home stretch. No doubt about it.

I continue to appreciate the civility that we all try to exhibit while interacting with one another in this forum. Lord knows there's enough Y2k anxiety to go around this week without having to ride herd on flame wars in this forum.

It has been a real roller coaster week, and it looks like the car is just reaching the peak of the largest drop on this thrill ride we call Y2k. I'm not sure how the next few days are going to play out from a social perspective. I'm beginning to see signs of exactly what the President's Y2K council wanted to avoid - public nervousness. Notice that I hesitate to use the word "panic".

Many of you have looked to this forum for informed opinion and guidance on how the electric industry has handled their Y2k remediation effort, and you've formed your opinion by now one way or the other. It occured to me the other day that many of us have been searching for answers in terms of absolutes, and that's what's been so frustrating about the whole issue - there are no absolutes.

Today, there was a banking problem with ATM's in the U.K., and it's a problem that won't be resolved by the time Y2k arrives. The 911 system in Charlotte, NC is not Y2k ready, despite earlier claims of compliance, and the city said that there's no way to fix it between now and the turn. But that doesn't mean, according to the city, that emergency services won't be able to respond. And I learned today that almost all major banks in what I'll describe as a major Pacific Rim country will be shutting down their ATM networks for four days beginning at close of business on 12/31. Which leads to my next thought.

Watching the ABC news report tonight about the U.K. banking problem, the reporter said: "We've been assured all along that everything will be fine, that the banking industry will be ready. That just may not be the case." Then the news showed some JQP types in NYC who had drawn $1,000's out of the bank. They had fat rolls of bills in their fists. Now, how many people watching that news report are going to be running to the bank tomorrow? Maybe a small percentage. But the reporter's quote above was etched into my brain.

I truly believe that for the most part, the domestic U.S. electric industry has done everything they could in the amount of time that they had to deal with it. Frequently, I find myself asking the question, "Was it enough?" And you know, even today, I have enough nagging doubt that I can't answer that simple question. Sure, I would have liked to have seen much more testing and research years ago. I suspect that even FF and CL would agree with that.

Still, the question remains, "Was it enough?" The business reality of the situation is that 5 years ago, very few government agencies and private companies would waste a nickle's worth of budget on a Y2k line item. R&D groups at key vendor organizations certainly weren't testing their products for Y2k compliance. That effort didn't start in earnest until 2 years ago. Even today, compliance statements are changing.

So the work that's been crammed into the last 18 months or so *has* to be enough. It's that simple. And that complex.

I expect that, for the most part, things will go on apace in the hours following the rollover. There will be problems, to be sure. I do not believe, nor have I ever believed, that this issue would lead to a total collapse of either the U.S. electric grid or civilization itself. I have never subscribed to the theory that if the "grid goes down for 2 weeks, it's down for good" (Where in the heck did that come from, anyway?) I do believe that the electric industry is in for some unexpected Y2k related challenges, and that in some cases, those challenges will lead to localized outages of a duration that is impossible to predict.

Mostly, what I've intended for this forum (and the euy2k.com website itself) to do is impart a sense of risk. To say that there's no greater risks to the [banks/power grid/social security/air transportation/pick your posion] on January 1 than any other day is, and always has been, ludicrous, IMHO. Of *COURSE* there's a greater risk of failures in everything that touches our technologically interconnected lives. This problem is unprecedented in human history in terms of scope, magnitude, reach, and complexity.

Everyone that's been following this issue, in some cases for many years, has become by default a risk manager. Add it to your resume. We've each reviewed the data available to us, and made our personal or professional decisions based on our assessment of the risk. So has every government agency and industry sector. And the best we can hope for at this point is that, between actual remediation and best risk management practices (corporate and personal), it *was* enough.

Thanks for riding with me!

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

Answers

You're a good man Rick. Thanks for driving this big rig for us!

Steve

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

Thank you to Rick and the posters here from us regular lurkers.

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

I'd like to underline what Carlos said. Thank you ALL from us lucky lurkers! A special thanks to Rick (what a gem!) for his ability to share his point of view in a way I can trust.

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

Rick,

Can't thank you and all the other posters here for teaching me about electricity. Best to all.

The view from my perch in the oil industry is a bit dim at this time. I'm quite scared that we've blown it on the embedded issues and only time will tell that.

I'm certain we've blown it on some of the accounting systems as I've seen quite a few 1900 invoices rolling through. I'm not really worried about them though, I'm worried about risk, risk to platforms, refineries, pipelines, vessels and ultimately lives.

Good luck to all.

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

rick... we have all had our 'moments' on this forum but i will say that i consider myself lucky to have stumbled upon your site.

i have learned an incredible amount and met an inordinate number of great people[that includes you factfinder. and cl, and dgman], but sadly enough, my original position, that we are in for a rough ride, has not changed.

maybe the ride will not be 'as' rough due to your persistence in sounding the alarm and keeping the pressure on, in spite, i might add, of overwhelming odds but i do not feel that we are out of the woods by a long shot.

the post by scott outlining the nrc's position on deviation from normal safety standards is, of course, most unsettling... but we all knew that long ago.

all we can do at this point is pray.

... and i have a proposal. if we manage to get through this debacle, relatively unscathed, and bonnie's personal life is back on an even keel, we should all get together for dinner and a drink. marcella will meet us anywhere, with the exception of the ritz.

gordon has suggested roswell... whaddaya think?

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

From www.wbtv.com for Dec 28:

"The year 2000 is quickly approaching, but there are concerns that not everyone is ready for Y2K, including the Charlotte Mecklenburg Police Department. Chief Darrel Stephens held a press conference Tuesday afternoon to address the concerns. He says crews are still working to make sure the computer-aided dispatch system is ready, but the department has contingency plans in place even if it's not. Some of the potential problems could include trouble accessing the state DMV computers and problems with the department's paging system, but officials stress they're prepared to handle the glitches." Regards,

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

Marianne,

You weren't supposed to mention Roswell but, well, now that its out of the bag, sure! I still think they have some futuristic answers to cheap power for everyone down there.

Rick,

When I saw you use the term risk management and risk manager it made me jump. I have been telling people exactly that and haven't gotten too big a response. But now that you are validating it, well, I feel like the Strawman, in The Wizard Of Oz, who wanted a brain and finally got his validation paper. Thanks for the validation! Now, go out there and start pulling some ropes and levers and get us safely back to Kansas. Even if we only have a hot air balloon to use, that's OK, cause I don't think the FAA is going to be dealing with crowded skies.

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

Good luck with the MSNBC gig, Rick, and thanks for having provided this forum.

And hey, I'm only 200 miles from Roswell. I watch the flying saucers pass overhead every night. ;)

-- Anonymous, December 29, 1999

Rick, your work has meant more to my family (my wife and three kitties) than I could ever say, than you could ever know. I feel a deep debt of gratitude to you for providing this forum, and to all of the articulate concerned voices who have shared their thoughts here. May God watch over each and every one of you and yours.

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

May God Bless all of you for your hard work. I hope and pray for a wonderful year for all. Rick, thanks for allowing me to gain very useful information from this site. Its all over but the waiting.

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

rick.....

gotta throw my thanks onto the heap, too......HA!

only posted here once before (queen of lurkers, that's me! ) ....but i have been here with you since LONG before you instituted the password (shhhhh....i mean.....what password???)

thank you for all the level headed information you have provided access to, not to mention that that you have provided yourself

may God be with us all through whatever comes

rick......you HAVE made a difference!

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Thanks, Rick. One of these days, you really must tell us what it's like to be a TV star. :-)

Best wishes to everybody for the new year.

"We've been assured all along that everything will be fine, that the banking industry will be ready. That just may not be the case." Gee, who'da thunk it?

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Thanks for all the reasoned anaylsis on this issue. Ultimately, Y2k may will itself in the ways that confound the most people, but your insight into the electrical industry has given us a view to which we wouldn't otherwise be privy. For that, thanks is never enough.

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

I havn't spoken a word either, but I wanted to thank all of you for your work. It has been a haven to come to this site each day,and read your thinking. I have no one who is willing to discuss the possible sceanarios with, so I can not thank you enough for educating all of us.

Be safe Eeo

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

I think that this forum has provided some of the best reporting on the Y2K issue. Thanks, Rick.

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Thanks to Rick and everyone else. I am on pins & needles awaiting the outcome and some indication as to what we can expect for the months ahead. Anyway, the best to each and every one of you (lurkers included!) I have throughly enjoyed the conversations/contributions that have taken place on this board!

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Thanks Rick, and thank you all for your insights and information. You have all made this forum a "class act", I wish the rest of the internet was this civilized. I hope someday we can all laugh and reminisce, over a cup of coffee or a cocktail, about all the postings and FOF stories that we shared,,,,and the fears were never realized. Let us all hope for that, I kinda like microwaves and fridges and washers and driers and TVs and cold beer and...........

Good luck to you all,

Jim

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Rick, my husband just caught a snippet of one of your appearances on MSNBC. It reminded me that I should take the time to thank you for all your efforts on behalf of Y2K awareness and for beginning a forum for such in-depth information exchange about electric utility issues.

So I add my sincere appreciation to that of others here, and my thanks also to all who have contributed their thoughts to this forum over many months. It won't be any surprise to readers that I concur that the upcoming time is frought with risk. I have recently received mail with information from folks in various infrastructure areas, including electric utility Y2K project workers, that has expressed to me something less than the completely confident optimism we have read about for months. Suffice it to say there are those on the industry front lines who are also aware of the period of high risk we are entering. Whatever happens, I do not regret for an instant advising families to prepare for the possibility of disruptions.

A heartfelt "thank you" also, to those who have sent me kind thoughts and prayers concerning my dad's illness. They have buoyed my spirit. My father passed away night before last. The funeral is tomorrow morning. God holds me up.

I'll drink a toast to you all New Year's Eve.

Love from Bonnie

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Just wanted to add my thanks. And to Bonnie, send my deepest sympathy. I hope that as the New Year rolls in it brings happiness, joy and brand new adventures for us to conquer. God Bless You All.

Terri

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Rick, Let me add my thanks on behalf of me and my family for your invaluable work. I have "lurked" here for well over a year and have greatly benefitted from your expertise, as well as from many of the regular posters. The conclusion I have drawn about all of this can be summed up simply: prudent preparation is better than presumption. Thanks again for all your work!

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

to all the people who have contributed to this forum, thank you for helping to make some sense of this complex and very confusing issue.

thanks rick for setting up this forum.

we will soon find out what is in store for us, God bless all of you.

Bonnie Camp my sincere condolences on the loss of your father. mine has been gone for four years, i miss him every day.

good luck to all,

alex cocco md

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

I would also like to say a big thank you. I've been lurking here without posting for quite a long time (my regular "hang-out" is csy2k), and have found the information in this forum to be reasoned and credible.

Good luck, Rick with the MSNBC thing.

Jo Anne

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999

Rick, thanks very much from the bottom of my heart for being so gracious to those of us who know nothing about where our electricity comes from. If things become difficult because of the Y2k bug, you can rest in the knowledge that you have helped my family to be ready for this. Bonnie, I and the others on this forum will hold you up to our Father in our prayers over the next few days. God says that He will be a Father to the fatherless, and that includes you now. Thank you also to all of the others who have posted on this site. FactFinder, we still have a few cans of beanie-weenies set aside for you! This forum has been a place where I could exchange "conversation" with a few adults each day. After spending the day with my six mostly-little children, it's great to be able to have some interaction with people who don't have to be reminded not to use their sleeves, or to wash their hands! My hope is that 48 hours from now, we will be having a great virtual party on this site, and laughing at the weird varieties of foods and other items stored in our basements. God bless you all, and remember that the Lord is holding this world in His loving hands.

-- Anonymous, December 30, 1999