World Girds for Y2K Trouble

Updated 6:18 PM ET December 29, 1999

By VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV, Associated Press Writer

MOSCOW (AP) - It's hardly a new Cold War, but some Russians are starting to suspect that international concern about their ability to handle Y2K computer problems is an American smear.

Deputy Prime Minister Ilya Klebanov, the top official in charge of Year 2000 preparations in Russia, on Wednesday became only the latest official to dismiss U.S. fears as unfounded.

"The U.S. administration has aroused public opinion about Russia's readiness for the problem," he said in a radio interview. "Russia is just as well-prepared for the Y2K problem as the United States."

Klebanov's comments came as other nations made final equipment checks at Y2K crisis command posts, girding for a long weekend when air travel will be minimal and extended bank and stock market holidays common.

Y2K experts say that while the United States and industrialized countries including Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand appear to well prepared, many other nations are not. And not all are in the developing world.

"The sky is the limit when it comes to what might happen," said Peter de Jager, a Canadian computer consultant who was among the first to sound the Y2K alarm. "There will be a handful of what can only be described as catastrophic problems around the world."

Though most failures aren't expected to be felt until New Year's, a Y2K failure affecting 20,000 credit card swipe machines caused frustrating delays across Britain this week for thousands of retailers and customers.

The machines supplied by HSBC bank, improperly rejected credit cards because of a failure to recognize the year 2000, a bank spokeswoman said.

Western experts consider Russia poorly prepared for Y2K, and say it could trigger widespread power and telecommunications outages. Lower-level Russian officials have admitted that work got started late in many crucial sectors and won't be finished by Friday.

One area of worry is natural gas deliveries from Russia's gas monopoly, Gazprom. Turkey depends on them and a senior Turkish official said Wednesday that power cuts may be necessary should Y2K problems develop along the pipeline from Russia, which traverses Ukraine, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria.

Turkey, which uses gas to heat homes and generate electrical power, simply has no way of stockpiling it, the official said.

Earlier this month, people in the capital, Ankara, went without power for two hours a day as the government tried to save power after a drop in gas supplies from Russia.

Gazprom insists there will be not supply interruption. But it has admitted to having to scramble to make last-minute fixes in hundreds of systems - and analysts say eastern Europe's power grids are a huge question mark.

The Y2K bug is the legacy of an early programming practice that expressed years in only two digits. Uncorrected computers can't differentiate between 1900 and 2000 and could crash or scramble dates.

Worldwide, fear of flying is one sign of Y2K anxiety. Although major airlines get good marks for Y2K preparation, air traffic control is a concern in some regions so the skies will be lonely on New Year's Eve.

On Wednesday, officials in Peru claimed their air traffic systems were compliant but said airlines had canceled nearly half of all fights this weekend in and out of Lima, the capital.

The deputy director of the United Nations' International Civil Aviation Organization in Peru, Jose Miguel Ceppi, said his biggest concern was losing telecommunications links among air traffic controllers in the region.

"These local telecommunications providers are beyond our control," he said, but added that controllers have backup satellite and radio communications.

Even in countries considered best purged of the bug, contingency was the rule. Israel shut down its nuclear reactor for the rollover and officials said 12,000 police would be deployed nationwide to cope with any millennium bug fallout as well as possible religious tensions.

In Russia, where activities of the government commission set to deal with the bug have been barely visible, the Communications Ministry waited until Wednesday to set up a Y2K crisis center.

Most people are hardly aware of the problem.

Yelena Merkulova, busy selling fir trees in Moscow for the New Year holiday, said she had no time to worry about Y2K.

"American people have no other problems, so they have invented this problem to keep them busy," she said. "Here, we have many other things to worry about, such as how to feed our children on miserable wages."

The U.S. government has granted nonessential embassy employees in Russia and other former Soviet republics free trips home to wait out possible trouble - a move ridiculed by the Russian media, which has followed the government in paying Y2K little heed.

Klebanov said vital facilities would be watched but reiterated that he foresees no serious trouble.

"There will be no breakdowns at nuclear facilities, other vital installations or life-support systems," he said. "The sewage system will be working, it's not dependent on computers here, and plumbing will be running and lights will be on."

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Ray Archive: Wed Dec 29 Tue 28 Mon 27 Sun 26

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 29, 1999

Answers

"The U.S. administration has aroused public opinion about Russia's readiness for the problem," he said in a radio interview. "Russia is just as well-prepared for the Y2K problem as the United States."

YIKES

"The sky is the limit when it comes to what might happen," said Peter de Jager, a Canadian computer consultant who was among the first to sound the Y2K alarm. "There will be a handful of what can only be described as catastrophic problems around the world."

Is this an old quote, or is Petey doing the backstroke?

-- really warm and fuzzy now (karlacalif@aol.com), December 29, 1999.