As always, I have deep respect for those who are concerned that 2K problems may be more than a BITR. I even think that their speculation could reach fruition in a worst case scenario. Therefore it is not a bad idea to prepare.

However, I think it's also worthwhile to consider the possibility, that, PERHAPS, we may end up with something far less than TEOTWAWKI.

I will be the first to admit that I am an ignoramous about programming, since the last thing I messed around with was applesoft basic and IBM's true basic. (Throw in a little HTML, maybe, but that does not count). Nevertheless I understand crudely what "bugs" are and what they are not from my limited experience. Some bugs result in the crashing of the whole program from the instant the return key is smacked. Others cause the program to run for a little while until it receives input that it cannot process properly. I suspect the latter describes most y2k bugs.

Y2K bugs, in all likelihood, will not entail the instant crashing of whole systems. These showstoppers have by and large been weeded out. Most will be fairly inert and will affect small cadres of people who "fall through the cracks" of various y2k patches.

Therefore, companies which claim that their mission critical systems are "not 100% compliant" might still be able to function and even profit. That is because their systems may be "partly compliant"--enough so that the vast majority of transactions between customers and vendors will go without a hitch. Of course, even 1 out of 100 furiously irate customers can make a lot of noise and trouble...but certainly not financial meltdown.

I understand the interconnectedness of the economy and that y2k could end up being really bad. I believe recession by the end of the year is pretty much inevitable (for a number of reasons). However, I personally leave open--even hope for--the possibility that this recession won't pack a huge wallop and that the embedded chip situation does not take down the "iron triangle." The very interconnectedness of the economy that makes it susceptible to y2k is also what will enable for it to make a very dynamic recovery. It, like a living organism, loses a few limbs but then compensates by growing new ones.

Don't get me wrong. Y2K could end up being much much worse. I do not yet have enough information to decide since the available news is so bad and scripted in lawyerese. But don't lose hope or give up on optimism. There will always be a springtime no matter how dark or cold the winter.

Just something to consider.

-- coprolith (coprolith@fakemail.com), December 29, 1999

Answers

It's something the forum optimists have been saying for months... but it is enjoyable to hear another voice of reason. Thanks.

-- Ken Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), December 29, 1999.