The U.S. air traffic control system, the National Weather Service and some electric power systems will move prematurely into 2000 Friday at 7 p.m. EST, because they operate on Greenwich Mean Time

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U.S. to look to New Zealand for Y2K clues Copyright ) 1999 Nando Media Copyright ) 1999 Scripps McClatchy Western Service

From Time to Time: Nando's in-depth look at the 20th century

By LEO RENNERT, Nando Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON (December 29, 1999 2:17 a.m. EST http://www.nandotimes.com) - If you suffer from Y2K angst, you can get a preview of what may or may not go wrong by keeping a close eye early Friday morning on what happens in New Zealand, the first modern, industrial country to cross the 2000 threshold.

Many hours before Americans pop champagne corks, any serious glitches in New Zealand will be quickly reported to a $50 million global information center established by the Clinton administration for up-to-date reports on possible Y2K problems at home and abroad.

For U.S. officials charged with keeping an eye on potential Y2K crises, New Zealand will serve as the proverbial canary in a coal mine -- as a critical early warning system.

Globally, the rollover into 2000 will start Friday at 6 a.m. (EST) in New Zealand, followed two hours later by Australia, and then moving through Asia, Eastern Europe and Western Europe before the United States starts checking into the new millennium.

"It's an advantage to us to have the international sector go first because it does give us some advance look at what's going to happen," said John Koskinen, chairman of President Clinton's Y2K Conversion Council.

So if computers don't crash and the lights don't go out and water keeps flowing from taps in New Zealand and Australia, the worry quotient may start dropping quickly in the United States even before America's infrastructure is put to the test.

More than 100 countries are expected to report in timely fashion to the U.S. clearinghouse, which will process more information at one time than the government has ever had to deal with. In addition to twice-daily news briefings, reports will be posted immediately on the council's web site -- www.y2k.gov -- which will be able to absorb as many as 40 million hits a day.

Operators also will man the government's hotline -- 1-888-USA-4Y2K. Except Koskinen cautions that it's not advisable for everybody to rush to the telephone after "Auld Lang Syne" and overload circuits -- even by just checking for dial tones. Telephone companies are worried about an avalanche of long-distance calls that might tax their systems even more than annual Mother's Day volumes.

The information center will handle Y2K progress reports from all federal agencies, state and local governments, private industry and foreign nations.

The State Department is geared up for round-the-clock monitoring of possible international problems through its embassies and consulates so it can assistant Americans abroad if they run into any Y2K difficulties. The Pentagon is ready for worst-case scenarios that might require evacuation of American citizens, particularly from less developed countries, which are most vulnerable to Y2K problems.

Russian and U.S. military officers gathered Tuesday at a missile early-warning center in Colorado Springs, Colo., where they will spend the next few days on the alert against possible Y2K glitches that might trigger erroneous signs of missile launches. Each side will have hot-line links to each other's top military commands.

In Moscow, Russian defense officials said their nuclear missiles are guaranteed trouble-free in the transition to 2000 -- with no possibility of accidental launch in case of radar blackouts.

At home, basic service industries -- telecommunications, banking, utilities and medical providers -- report a high level of confidence that their operations will be Y2K compliant.

But it may take a while -- perhaps weeks -- before the full picture emerges.

"Immediately after midnight, we won't know a lot more than everybody else by looking out the window and seeing what's going on," said Koskinen.

Actually, there will be some Y2K news a bit earlier. The U.S. air traffic control system, the National Weather Service and some electric power systems will move prematurely into 2000 Friday at 7 p.m. EST, because they operate on Greenwich Mean Time, which is five hours ahead of the eastern United States.

By 2 a.m. EST Saturday, information on major infrastructure systems -- electric power and telecommunications -- will become available for the eastern half of the country. The West Coast will check in a few hours later.

By Sunday afternoon, government monitors again will look for reports from abroad as the rest of the world opens for business on Monday.

Monday in the United States will be critical as the first U.S. business day in 2000, when banks, financial services, private businesses and government programs will be tested in real time.

"We will have our clearest picture of where we are by the end of Monday," said Koskinen. "We should not declare victory too early and go home. We're going to monitor this through Monday or Tuesday on an ongoing basis."

Even then, that won't be the end of the story. The information center will continue operating around the clock, checking how billing and payroll systems manage their first operating cycles throughout January.

The center is slated to shut down at the end of January, but will reopen in late February to monitor how computer systems deal with a second potential Y2K glitch -- an unusual Feb. 29 leap year phenomenon. Normally, centuries are not leap years, except when they are divisible by 400. Thus, 1900 was not a leap year but 2000 will be.

Some preliminary tests of that potential problem have found many errors, and the government is poised to keep a close watch on the situation.

While preparing for the worst, government officials predict few serious disruptions. "We're very confident there will be no disasters," said Koskinen. "We don't think there will be any nationwide or even regional problems."

Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala added extra assurances Tuesday, advising people with implanted medical devices that they have nothing to worry about. "There is no one walking around that has anything implanted inside of them that has a date-certain or any date-related activity going on," she said.

Social Security checks will be in the mail as usual and Medicare and Medicaid are geared to operate without problems. The pharmaceutical industry has seen no signs of fear-induced stockpiling of extra medications and, in any case, has an extra 60- to 90-day supply on hand in nearly all categories.

The same goes for motorists who haven't rushed to fill up their gas tanks. Even if 200 million cars showed up at stations in the next two or three days to get 10 gallons of gas each, there'd still be 100 million gallons in reserve. Of course, that could create long lines at the pumps, but it wouldn't be a supply problem.

Koskinen's advice to the public is to be prepared for a long, mid-winter weekend with flashlights, batteries and battery-powered radios. But he adds: "People ought to celebrate the new millennium. There is no evidence people need to disrupt their lives in any way."

The information center will be quick to counter false rumors. Officials also caution not to read too much into a few ATM machines that might be on the blink or if there if there are isolated traffic-light malfunctions. These things happen all the time and may have nothing to do with Y2K.

To demonstrate confidence in air travel, Koskinen will fly the 6:30 p.m. EST shuttle to New York on Friday -- half an hour before the air traffic system rolls over into 2000. He will fly back to Washington two hours later.

Over the weekend, he will provide regular briefings to Vice President Al Gore, a longtime computer-age enthusiast. Clinton will be briefed only if anything important happens.

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-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 29, 1999


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