First time here (thanks Ed) - just a quickie on my experiences today...

greenspun.com : LUSENET : HumptyDumptyY2K : One Thread

I just sent this to the Sysops re. the hacking

======================================================================

Just wanted to thanks all the sysops for their hard work all year, well done all of you!

I guess this is shades of things to come [hacking, servers down...]

Heads up...

I was trying to buy gold and crude oil call options today and there are some very very strange goings-on in the oil and gold futures markets.

Seems like some folks are waking up to what RC/Infomagic are saying.

Also the big boys are buying these options at *any* price, which indicates they know something that we don't

i.e. a commodities explosion and stock market crash for next year... just my two cents...

Our preps will not be in vain, I plan on buying more food in the next two days...

Cheers,

Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 29, 1999

Answers

Thanks for the tip Andy!

Yep, I plan to squeeze in a couple more bags of rice tomorrow.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 29, 1999.


I second the sysop kudos, Andy.

What was your take on the last-minute charitable act of Warren Buffet (yesterday?)

-- Sara Nealy (keithn@aloha.net), December 29, 1999.


Andy!! Where ya been, guy? This just wouldn't be a good TB2000 substitute without you.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), December 29, 1999.

Hi everyone,

thanks for the welcome...

sorry Sara - I didn't hear the news on Buffet, what did he do?

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 29, 1999.


Welcome back Andy.

Nice to have the old group comming together (althoough I'm a relative newbie).

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 29, 1999.



Looks like gold is starting to creep up again.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), December 29, 1999.

Evidently Buffet dumped a whole lot of stock - er contributed it to charity. Is it a tax thing? Is it because the market is going to make TP of it in a few days and he knows?

-- Sara Nealy (keithn@aloha.net), December 29, 1999.

Wow, that's a smart move. He doesn't have to take any loss when everyone else starts selling on Monday morning to take theri profits in the new tax year. He'll get the full value as a tax deduction, without taking any risks by holding it until after the rollover. No wonder he is stinking rich.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 29, 1999.

Andy,

Be careful with the wild statements you make. As an example, March crude oil options were actually selling for no more -- or even less -- yesterday than they were selling for two weeks ago.

Examples:

32.00 call was $140. Ten days ago it was $180

28.00 call was $760. Ten days ago it peaked just above this.

If you mean that they were buying 'at market' that's one thing. They weren't buying *at any price.*

-- (truth@be.known), December 29, 1999.


Thanks Ed

Thanks Sysops

Thanks Andy

Thanks to ALL participants (few exceptios) on both sides of the argument

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 29, 1999.



Hi Truths,

this is what you said

Andy, Be careful with the wild statements you make. As an example, March crude oil options were actually selling for no more -- or even less -- yesterday than they were selling for two weeks ago.

Examples:

32.00 call was $140. Ten days ago it was $180

28.00 call was $760. Ten days ago it peaked just above this.

If you mean that they were buying 'at market' that's one thing. They weren't buying *at any price.*

-- (truth@be.known), December 29, 1999.

======================================================================

now I'm very new at this, and am relying ona couple of seasoned mentors to guide me, now i've been laying a crude oil and gasoline "trap" since the 12th of Dec.

buying calls from feb out to april in crude at $35-40

gas in feb/mar between 85c to 1 dollar

the initial bid/asks were very close, the last two days they were ***extremely*** wide

i'll paste in below some private email exchanges

you guys make your own minds up

it may be panic buying/thin trading

but looks at the gold markets

hope this helps some of you folks

===========================================================

Sent: 28 December 1999 09:02 Subject: gold call prices are exploding

===========================================================

> Andy-the March $35 just raded at 10 up 4 from yesterday-also there were 285 > contracts bought yesterday--A weird thing-the April $40 traded at 4 and the > March $40 traded at 5.

=============================================================

> I was bidding on the April $40s-I tried 5 cents--no soap--then 7- then the mkt > closed--the way gold calls surged today on a meagre $1.70 rise makes me think > we are starting to sww some last minute Y2K panic buying-what do you think?

==============================================================

Last spring I paid $50 each for 100 June $400 calls--Just a month > or so ago it galled me to pay $250 each for 100 Decv. $410 gold calls--today > hey TRADED at $420 each--so I have a $17,000 paper profit--

==============================================================

very very wide bid asks $Apr $40's are 3-9!! could not get filled

==============================================================

Also get similar e-mails along these lines From Flierdude and a coupla other folks...

Andy

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 29, 1999.


Andy,

Think volatility......the crude market is going up and down, so options are doing the same, and there's a real wide bid/ask spread.

That is totally different from the statement you made about big guys buying at *any* price, isn't it?

BTW, as of 11 am, Jan crude was down $0.50. Doesn't sound to me like people are paying any price.

My point........make your posts accurate, not emotional.

-- (truth@be.known), December 29, 1999.


Andy, Think volatility......the crude market is going up and down, so options are doing the same, and there's a real wide bid/ask spread.

That is totally different from the statement you made about big guys buying at *any* price, isn't it?

BTW, as of 11 am, Jan crude was down $0.50. Doesn't sound to me like people are paying any price.

My point........make your posts accurate, not emotional.

-- (truth@be.known), December 29, 1999.

======================================================================

I'm sorry TBK,

I still disagree with you.

I am relying on a couple of seasoned traders that have been doing this for quite a while, 20 + yrs.

I don't put this down to "volatility" - even I've seen achange in two weeks and I've bought 112 options in several months/calls/commodities/strikes.

These guys have been saying for at least a couple of days now that they are not getting filled on normal trades, where a fill would be expected...

I have heard this from flierdude and two others - so much so that some haven't got filled for days on end and have given up.

The ones getting filled are paying way over the worth of the contract...

That's what i call "at any price"...

Yesterday I had to bid 90 for a regular 20 call option, - why? my broker was shaking his head in his office.

Are you trading yourself?

Tell us of your experiences...

I re-iterate, the gold options call market has exploded - look at the price of Dec2000 400-410 calls.... to me this speaks of folks in the know rather than just mere speculators.

Now I've given you a lot of specifics here and you seem to doubt me.

Tell us all what you know - specifically.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 29, 1999.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ