So, how do we prepare if R.C. is right about petroleum shortages?

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R.C.'s three-part series on Y2K and Oil (see below), coupled with D.D. Reed's earlier material, is pretty sobering stuff. It leads me to wonder what more we should/could do to prepare for significant shortages in petroleum products and by-products.

To simplify things I'm thinking of three possible scenarios:

#1 Modest disruptions in the petrolem industry leading to significant price increases for petroleum products, by-products and just about everything else (because of increased shipping costs, manufacturing costs, etc.).

#2 Moderate disruptions leading to rationing and shortages in addition to price increases.

#3 Severe disruptions, with petrolem products and by-products being reserved for use by the government, military, and essential services, with none available to the general public.

To simplify things even more, I want to drop #3 for the time being and maybe consider it in a separate thread. That leaves us with #1 and #2, and one possibility is that we would start with a #1, moving into #2 as more and more problems emerged, and then, hopefully, moving back to #1 again as repairs were made and more facilities came back on-line.

I suppose that supplies _could_ dry up overnight but I think it's probably more likely that we'll have some advanced warning -- and they say that being forewarned is being forarmed. What I mean is that there's a lot of stuff already in the supply chain and the disruptions will probably be strung out over several days, or maybe even weeks, so there should be time for people to take some actions before we start to feel the full impact of the disruptions.

I'm assuming that most of us have prepared to an extent that we considered "reasonable" and that there's more that we _could_ have done. So, what should or could we do once it seemed clear that we were headed in the direction of serious petroleum shortages?

Here's some of my preliminary thinking:

I could very quickly buy MORE (e.g., more gasoline, kerosene, food, security devices, etc.)

I could get a second battery for my small solar system.

I could think about buying a cheaper, smaller, older car that gets better gas mileage.

I could buy options on oil futures (risky), or puts on the stock market in general or petroleum companies in particular (also risky).

I could warn friends and neighbors of the impending problem (maybe they would be more amenable this time around).

What are your thoughts on preparing for a #1 or #2 scenario?

-- dhg (dhgold@pacbell.net), December 28, 1999

Answers

A bicycle and carpooling arrangements come to mind.

Note that if we have a severe oil shortage, it won't be just gas that will be affected, it will be virtually everything that is made or transported using petroleum products. This is why we 'doomers' have been advocating that people stock up on the normal non-perishable supplies they would use over the course of a month or longer.

However, times up. That particular game's over. Now a new one is getting ready to start. Good luck.

-- a (a@a.a), December 28, 1999.


A month or two? For a DOOMER???

Come on, let's try a year or more. Think supply line disruptions, think cheap grain NOW.

-- mushroom (mushroom_bs_too_long@yahoo.com), December 28, 1999.


Anyone who isn't already prepared, is down by three touchdowns, and has less than a minute on the clock. The announcers are adjusting their microphones for the post-game show. The tele-promptor guy has got his hand on the joystick. Not everyone can go to the playoffs. Problem is ... a lot of folks will be "retiring" after this season ...

-- This Game Will Not Go Into Overtime (TooLate@itsover.com), December 28, 1999.

Do not warn anyone of anything. It's too late. Where have you been?

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 28, 1999.

I would suggest, if you haven't already done it, that you hurry your butt off to the garden store and get seeds..You are too late to go shopping for non hybrid, but worry about that after you get this first garden planted. Make sure you get tools, pesticdes and fertilizer. Oh yes....being an optimist and assuming you will have a FEW successful crops of something, get some jars, lids and a canner. Hopefully you are an experienced gardener with a freshened milk cow or goat hanging its head over the fence. Anything less and you are going to get very hungry in about 6 months when lots of the preps run out. Fresh veggies and fruit will be something you will wake up nights dreaming about. Dig up the lawn this spring if you have to for space. Califlower, cabbage, brocalli, etc fit nicely in among the flower beds as do greens, onions, etc.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), December 28, 1999.



Oh dear, oh dear. How does one freshen a milk cow? Do I need body powder? Lipstick? Body wash? Fragrance? What?? Crap. I knew I should have listened to my grandmother when I had the chance.

Fortunately, I was smart enough to plant several rows of fresh Haagan Daaz this fall so by mid-spring those delightful little pints should be ready to pick...

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), December 28, 1999.


I *still* can't find R.C.'s oil article. Can someone please provide a link? Thank you!

-- Zoe (a@a.a), December 28, 1999.

Here's one location for #3

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002755

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), December 28, 1999.


Here's #2, and the first one was only an introduction, no real substance.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002752

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), December 28, 1999.


Fill every jug, car, vehicle, tractor, heater...anything that will hold gas that is a legitimate container...don't want anyone killed. buy a horse or a bike!

-- More Dinty Moore (dac@ccrtc.com), December 28, 1999.


Freshen a milk cow. It simply means that a milk cow (or goat) can't produce milk indefinetly (although they're working on that). So you stop milking her for a while, giving her body a chance to recover. You also need to breed her (with a bull people). After she has had her calf, you take it away and start milking the cow again.

Also if you haven't got non-hybrid tomato seeds, you can still have tomatoes. First, you'd be surprised how many of the plants produce viable seed albeit with curiously shaped tomatoes. More importantly, plant your hybrid seeds this coming spring, next fall, take and strike cuttings. As long as you can keep them alive over the winter, you'll have plants to set out the following spring. Mousie

-- Mousie (mousie@mymousehole.com), December 28, 1999.


Think of other petroleum products that you use, such as motor oil. Stock up now...

Look at alterntives...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 28, 1999.


You know those cartoons where the character runs off a cliff and there is a pause before they fall?

We may have a tiny bit of breathing space. If we are about to have oil go over a cliff, we have the following:

-- prices go sky high -- supply rationed (possibly) -- travel restrictions (possibly) -- stock market crash -- tangible assets go through the roof -- difficulty getting products (all kinds) -- food shortages -- really bad times

Do not look at this report and only think about getting to work. This is the whole ball game. Wars are fought things like gold, oil, and world domination.

-- David Holladay (davidh@brailleplanet.org), December 28, 1999.


Aloha!

Mountain bikes will rule the world:)(shains,tires,brake pads spokes,cables,lube,you get the picture)

Lokelo

-- Lokelo (lokelo@hotmail.com), December 28, 1999.


Aloha!

Mountain bikes will rule the world:)(Chains,tires,brake pads spokes,cables,lube,you get the picture)

Lokelo

-- Lokelo (lokelo@hotmail.com), December 28, 1999.



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