What's your prediction?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Do I know what is going to happen? Absolutely not.
But I'm starting this thread just to see who is going to be closest to what will actually happen. I ask you to paint your own scenario. Let's come back here on Jan 15, 2000 to see who is closest.
Who I am: A computer programmer who makes and sells the best disaster recovery software for Windows 95/98. Visit www.dos32.com. In a couple of days, I'm likely to have a 30-day time-limited software (free) to get the readers of this board over the Y2K hump. (Of course, I'd love it if you actually bought the software.)
What I think will happen:
Jan 1, 2000: Around 3 a.m. on Jan 1, there will be terrorist attacks on the national power grids. New York, Washington D.C., and Los Angeles lose power. (New York is particularly vulnerable since all the power flows in through only a single piece of real estate. This was true in the 1970's. Is this still true?)
Israel upsets plans by Jewish and Christian extremists to blow up the Dome of the Rock.
Jan 1 & 2, 2000 Continuing attacks on the power grid cause power to be lost in 13 Western States. Some local power companies disconnect from the grid so there are pockets of power. The attacks continue for a few days with power coming on and off. Part of the problem is that the power companies cannot rely on their computers to tell them where the power outages are because of some obscure Y2K bugs.
There is a run on stores. The stores are unable to process credit cards because of the power failures and will only accept cash. Checks are not accepted because the check validation companies are overloaded. Scattered violence happens at the ATM machines as people attempt to withdraw their money. The ATM machines are quickly exhausted. People crash cars into ATM machines that have no power or cash.
Violence begins to break out at some stores. There is generalized looting in a few areas; there are several hundred gun deaths by people protecting their property. Martial law is declared in some cities.
There is a mass exodus from the affected cities as people "go to visit friends in the suburbs." Some, limited, order is maintained.
The phone system breaks down in some places as hackers manage to deliberately screw things up just to make life a little more miserable for everyone.
Two refineries catch fire. One is the result of terrorist attacks and the other from an embedded system chip causing a valve to be in the wrong state.
No nuclear power problems.
Jan 3, 2000 On Jan 3, about 80% of the normal working population makes it into work. Lack of reliable power prevents people from doing anything useful in many places. People are urged to go home and be calm until power is properly restored.
98% of the nation's schools are open. Some education is actually accomplished. Mostly, kids are just glad that there is some place normal to go to.
Jan 4, 2000 On Jan 4, the power is restored. Transmission facilities are now guarded by the National Guard as well as armed volunteers. The internet is now mostly down because of the dual problems of people trying to get access to news plus malicious attacks on some key servers (yahoo, infoseek, etc.) cause a domino affect as server after server crashes because of overload.
A Russian missile tracking system misreports incoming missiles. Everyone keeps calm.
Jan 5, 2000 Terrorist attacks on physical facilities re-emerge. People continue as normal but everyone is feeling very vulnerable.
Jan 6-15, 2000 Major disruptions decrease each day.
Jan 16, 2000 Only minor annoyances. Some disruption to the economic system as some just-in-time productions collapse. Computer systems are fixed quickly as the bugs make themselves known.
Everyone begins to breath a sigh of relief.
Jan 16+ Minor annoyances as customers have to deal with human beings to straighten out billing errors. Corporations move more human beings to actually answer phones.
People spend a lot more time in voice mail hell.
Minor problems on-and-off for several months.
OK, that's my prediction. What's yours?
-- Ralph Shnelvar (email@example.com), December 27, 1999
Pretty optimistic aren't you Ralph? What do you know that I don't?
-- Michael (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1999.
Ralph, that is so hazy and vague, why did you even bother to post such a loosey-goosey "prediction"?
-- King of Spain (email@example.com), December 27, 1999.
If things happen on Jan 1 & 2, per your prediction, people will not WANT to go to work on the third, and I would think schools would be ordered closed as a precaution.
-- churchorganist (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1999.
13 western states will lose power but you still say the following ?
"98% of the nation's schools are open. Some education is actually accomplished. Mostly, kids are just glad that there is some place normal to go to."
Gonna get pretty dang cold in those schools.
-- Rob (email@example.com), December 27, 1999.
An interesting set of predictions. I will not agree or disagree with you. I find that most people come quickly to a "y2k will affect me" or a "y2k will not affect me". You can add the word "significantly" to these phrases if you wish.
Once you stay on one side or the other, then we spin our predictions. Your is interesting because will trying to sound "severe", you are really trying to say "even if things seem messed up, it really will not affect me if I wait a few weeks".
I find reality and history to be much more challenging. There is a lot we do know. There is a lot we do not know.
The speed of information transmission is awesome. Lets pretend that at mid-night in Tokyo, something really spectacular happens with a very, very big explosion at the stoke of mid-night 12/31/00. You know that the image of that explosion will be shipped around the world in milliseconds. That image (if it comes to pass) would be the accepted short-hand image for y2k and New Years eve. It is a lot more riviting that a champaign glass. Now that would really change people's behaviors all around the world.
My point is that this is an intense real-time event. All will unravel at amazing speed, blowing out our ability to predict the unfolding. For those with a mathematical vocabulary, it is a point of singularity.
If there are no big bangs, then TPTB will say that nothing will happen. They will shout hurrah! alot. They will say "this means the stock market will REALLY zoom since all the people holding back because of y2k will POUR money in. invest now or miss the opportunity of a thousand years" The poor saps will send in more dough while the rich and IT managers and the inner circle sells at maximux values. Around 1/15/00 when illusions can no longer be maintained, the structure will fall.
So now you know. I start out with the assumption that y2k will significantly affect me. That colors all my ability to make predictions. Come one, come all, mock and argue.
We all act like once a few days or weeks go by, we will know exactly what is going on. Wrong. It will only get deeper and more full of danger. We will wish we had as much information as we have now. The arguing has only barely started.
-- David Holladay (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1999.
Midnight...Jan 1.... I deliver my newspapers as usual. Nothing notable has happened, or everyone is too crocked to notice.
2-3 Am...Joe Schmo goes to the ATM for 20 bucks. He leaves happy- the machine gave him 200. Jane goes to the 7-11 for a late night munchy. OOps, the register isn't working. Jane goes home hungry
8 am Jan 1.... the Smith family awakens, realizing the alarm never went off. The coffee machine isn't working, come to think of it, neither are the lights. HMMMM
Noon....all those DGI's are rushing to the store. There are several accidents, as the street lights aren't working. I'm still in bed.
nightfall....terrorists try to take over govt. buildings. Hopefully, Clinton is in one of them....... First airline malfunction occurs, but no one is sure it's Y2K related, as all luggage is sent to the wrong destination. I'm getting ready to do my Sunday papers, considering taking my 357 with me.....
A new day dawns. Grocery store shelves are empty. Gas stations are closed. Cops and NG out in full force. No civilians allowed in the street. I FINALLY get a day off!
-- Jamie (Jamie42861@aol.com), December 27, 1999.
As I posted in an earlier thread.
Week 1 Dec 31st-Jan 8th primary embedded failures (some water/sewer, chemical plants, manufacturing) - Unknown level of impact...could be a 1 (unlikely but possible) or a 7-10 (unlikely but possible) figure a general 2-3 in most areas but a 10 in others. Water/sewer is the thing to watch.
Week 2-14 The unraveling of the economy-JIT failures, processing, accounting glitches. Fuel goes through the roof... rationing is probable. Stock market contracts, puffs then implodes for 2 qtrs. minimum. Longer if fail scenarios in production facilities last. This will be a 5-9 on the scale. Oil and chemical plants hold the key here. 40% of small businesses have done nothing for y2k. 10% of these will fail outright within 6-12 weeks. 7-26 million will be added to the unemployment rolls by June 2000. Govt. steps in but can't stem the tide. National emergency declared in most states by mid Feb.if not sooner.
Week 15-52 Slow then moderate recovery mixed with new fail scenarios keep anxiety very high. Level drops some to 4-7. Market starts back on recovery but will take yrs to recover fully.
Don't want to be but the evidence is clear.......Doomer
PS in two-three weeks I'll give my Kosky report and in spite of the above happening will give my happy faced all is well report.
-- Polly-Morphic Doomer (GREENEM31@AOL.COM), December 27, 1999.
Ralph : I printed out your list and stuck it on the cork board. Any predictions for Alaska ? Or are you just doing the lower 48 ?
-- Capt Dennis (email@example.com), December 27, 1999.
> Pretty optimistic aren't you Ralph? What do you know that I don't?
I don't know much. And I have actually prepared for worse than I predict.
But as a programmer of 25 years, I know that once a bug is repeatable that it is pretty easy to find and fix.
There will be a lot of bugs and a lot of bug fixing. With any luck, the bug fixes will be done and go out quickly.
> If things happen on Jan 1 & 2, per your prediction, people will not WANT to go to work on the third, and I would think schools would be ordered closed as a precaution."
A precaution against what?
You may be right. I don't claim more knowledge than anyone else. These are merely my predictions.
>Ralph, that is so hazy and vague, why did you even bother to post such a loosey-goosey "prediction"?
Hmm, hazy and vague? OK. How's this: On Jan 2, 2000 at 13:42 GMT, a clever terrorist plot will cause 645,916 toilets in New York City to flush within eight seconds of each other. The sewer system will not be able to handle all of this so that 46.75% of the toilets will back up into Manhattan apartments.
At 772b West End Avenue in apartment 7C, the overflowing toilets from apartment 8D will seep into the emergency rations rendering the terrorist who lives there immobile with a sickening sense of terror.
Is that specific enough?
>>"98% of the nation's schools are open. Some education is actually accomplished. Mostly, kids are just glad that there is some place normal to go to."
> Gonna get pretty dang cold in those schools.
It'll be warmer in the schools than at home. More body heat.
>The speed of information transmission is awesome. Lets pretend that at mid-night in Tokyo, something really spectacular happens with a very, very big explosion at the stoke of mid-night 12/31/00. You know that the image of that explosion will be shipped around the world in milliseconds. That image (if it comes to pass) would be the accepted short-hand image for y2k and New Years eve. It is a lot more riviting that a champaign glass. Now that would really change people's behaviors all around the world.
I agree with you. If that happens then things could rapidly spin out of control.
If it happens then the preparations I've made will pay off handsomely.
But my bias is that it will not happen. I don't have good reasons to back it up.
> A new day dawns. Grocery store shelves are empty. Gas stations are closed. Cops and NG out in full force. No civilians allowed in the street. I FINALLY get a day off!
As good a story as mine. Maybe better.
>Ralph : I printed out your list and stuck it on the cork board. Any predictions for Alaska ? Or are you just doing the lower 48 ?
Just the lower 48. Alaska will be fine since the clocks will be frozen to say 1999 for several weeks.
When the rollover happens in Alaska (several weeks later) all the bugs will have been fixed.
-- Ralph Shnelvar (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1999.
I would love if people were to prepare, I doubt, at this time, even the worst case scenario you describe probably won't get the herd moving.
They firmly believe it is only going to be "A Bump in the Road".
It's way too late to change a universal "thought pattern".
-- Michael (email@example.com), December 27, 1999.
Two general outcomes possible: 1--a ten-year global depression. 2-- a rapid global collapse of virtually everything. I lean toward the second, my wife toward the first. Which of these occurs will be decided in the first week, depending on the severity of the embedded problems. As Holliday above said, whatever it is will unfold at lightning speed, and we will know less in the future than we know now. IMO, this is going to make the fall of the Roman Empire look like fun. Few of the posters on this forum realize how big a fall we have set ourselves up for, with overpopulation, toxics and nuclear waste, gargantuan debt everywhere, environmental degradation, wildlife devastation, and the illusions of Televisonland which have effectively destroyed any regard for virtues and universal truths. If I am wrong I will publicly apologize, but I will never, never, never buy into the system that has brought us to this abyss.
-- StanTheMan (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1999.
Basically, I agree with Stan - a Global Depression is the *best* we can hope for. Way too many factors involved here to count on your fingers. I've been watching and learning for years, and still don't know what the next week(s) will bring.
Still trying to prep as best I can, my mate is burnt out on it all and I'm doing it a bit more quietly now. Where is that damn crystal ball ??
-- Dan G (email@example.com), December 27, 1999.
> Basically, I agree with Stan - a Global Depression is the *best* we can hope for.
One can hope for things much better than that.
It appears, though, that the best you expect is a Global Depression.
Just to keep things clear.
But, I think you are wrong.
Behind all these systems are human beings willing to fix things. Will these things be fixed quickly (a few weeks)? I think so.
If not, then, yes, a Global Depression will likely occur.
Guys, I just think that the global economic system is far more robust that you guys do. One thing going for the system is that massive amounts of money will be made (or lost) depending on how fast the system puts itself together.
Money is a great motivator.
-- Ralph Shnelvar (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 27, 1999.
You ask the guy for his predictions: and then you proceed to tear him apart. Look we all have our own ideas of what may take place, and nobody can see or know. But when you ask a fellow something, be civil with your answers, cease the critizising. Personally I feel that TSWHTF because there are too many variables and wild cards out there, and you have to figure in human error, human emotion, the human side of thing. I think the guy did a great job. He is looking at it from his standpoint, which is different from mine. What we must do, is take a little from here, a little from there, and then rationalize our own ideas. A beautiful picture is not made from only one color, it takes many to bring into being a masterpiece.
-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 28, 1999.
>You ask the guy for his predictions: and then you proceed to tear him >apart. Look we all have our own ideas of what may take place, and >nobody can see or know. But when you ask a fellow something, be civil >with your answers, cease the critizising. Personally I feel that >TSWHTF because there are too many variables and wild cards out there, >and you have to figure in human error, human emotion, the human side >of thing. I think the guy did a great job. He is looking at it from >his standpoint, which is different from mine. What we must do, is >take a little from here, a little from there, and then rationalize >our own ideas. A beautiful picture is not made from only one color, >it takes many to bring into being a masterpiece.
It was not clear to whom this was addressed. If it was addressed to me, Ralph (the original poster), then if I have insulted anyone then I am truly sorry.
You are quite correct (in my opinion) that no one knows what will happen. I certainly don't.
I wanted to put up my scenario so that people, in these last 3 days before Y2K, can visualize the possibilities. I want people (me!) to think about the consequences and prepare for the ones that they (I!) think will likely happen.
I'm starting a new thread with the following questions:
- - -
In these last few days, I ask myself:
Do I buy a gun? A gas mask? Both? Neither?
Do I buy more gas cans? Do I fill them up? Do I bring one car or two? What happens if we (wife, children) get separated?
Do I load up the car on Dec 31? Do take the dogs if we need to bug out really quickly. Do I put the stored gasoline in the car or is it more important to have food?
Do I buy a generator? If I do, do I take it with me so that I have power, at least, to bargain with?
Do I take important papers or leave them in my safe?
If I buy a generator and a gun and I stay at my house, if someone tries to steal the generator do I defend the house and generator or just let them have the generator? Do I use the generator during daylight hours or at night?
Just some last minute questions.
- - -
I don't have the answers to these questions
-- Ralph Shnelvar (email@example.com), December 28, 1999.