From about 5 years ago until November of this year, I believed that Y2K would end civilization as we know it I am a programmer and based my opinion on the poor quality of the systems that I have seen and the late, half-heart efforts at their remediation.

I changed my opinion when we came into December and no large noticeable problems have occurred. I have expected major failures due to systems projecting dates into 2000. Almost all purchasing, sales order, and forecasting systems have been processing dates in 2000 for at least 3 months now. Even accounting systems should be looking at in 2000 by December. Even though most cross-century conditions will come after the rollover, the absence of serious problems so far makes me think that Y2K will not lead even to a mild recession.

I would appreciate your comments concerning my change of opinion.

-- Mr. Adequate (mr@adequate.com), December 25, 1999

Answers

it's adequate.

-- (cavscout@fix.net), December 25, 1999.

It's not Y2K yet. This might be the "calm before the storm". Watch out for the embedded systems. If there is a problem with them, it will show up right around the rollover. If they aren't bad, then we will be OK.

-- Boy Scout (boyscout@beprepared.com), December 25, 1999.

LOL!!

You totally set yourself up for that one!

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 25, 1999.

I have prepped for a depression, and even for TEOTWAWKI the best I can. I am not sitting on pins and needles or stressing out about Jan. 1. There is nothing else I can do except wait and continue to prep when I can.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), December 25, 1999.

I am reasonably confident with my preps which could take me through several years. I will continue to buy supplies as long as I think it is safe.

I definitely belive there will be a recession or depression. I cannot believe a 2. I would expect a 5 or 6.

Merry Christmas! Please be kind to one another!

-- Ruth Edwards (REath29646@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

I am glad you based your diminished doom and gloom on scientific and technological evidence. Kind of reminds me of all the bankers who said right before the crash in 1929 "all is well." Thanks Mr. Inadequate now that we no longer have anything to worry about why can't we close up shop here now and get onto better things in life.

-- Mrs. Adequate (Mrs.Adequate@Mrs.Adequateee.xcom), December 25, 1999.

This to those who assume a 10 and prepped for it:

To me this means that regardless of how we get there (i.e. we start at 10 or reach 10 within say 6-9 months) then within 3 months after that:

a) most people in the cities will be dead (citizens, armed goons, etc. due to lack of water, food etc.

b) the military may be around for 3 months longer assuming discipline has not already broken down.

c) those outside the cities that did 1st world preps (i.e. stock-piling) are dead.

So if you planned for a 10, the only way you could continue to survive is that you have prepped to continue life without anything of the modern world (i.e. back to living off the land). Is this what you have done? How do you plan to protect yourselves for that long - if you're found then your ammo will not last too long? Second have you considered that you'll probably end up as "slaves" (since you know how to live off the land and they don't) for the armed goons that took over graineries, bakeries, and other large stashes of food at the main food manufacturer's and are therefore still alive causing havoc?

If you haven't planned for this, then am I correct that you have really just delayed your own demise?

I'm in city and have no option about that. So I've prepped for 3-4 months no water/no power. I figure if I'm living off only my preps for even 1 month, we are facing TEOTWAWKI (as everybody else isn't prepped and will be shortly dead). If that's the case, and I'm not killed, then there is nothing I do except delay the inevitable since I can't prep to live off the land. So I figured that 3 months would let me see TEOTWAWKI and then say good-bye. Besides if it comes to that I don't think I'd like to be alive in a Mad Max scenario any way.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 25, 1999.

I changed my opinion when we came into December and no large noticeable problems have occurred.

And I revised my "4" to a "7" after I watched several mainframes melt down last week, taken down by bad data that started being generated after July 1 (fiscal rollover). I'll lose my job if word about this crisis gets out, and I'll bet that I'm not the only person in this position. I'm starting not to care. It's been a messed up Christmas, anyway, with the DWGI's fighting with the GIs right here in my livingroom. I finally convinced them all to go to the movies. Quiet rules!

THEY'RE GONE!!!!!!!!!!!!

-- (They'regone@emptyhouse.com), December 25, 1999.

I thought R.C.s reporting on the CEO's telling him about pipeline failures due to SCADA was important.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), December 25, 1999.

I've gone from a 7 or so to about a 3 over the last year. More evidence has convinced me that although we will likely have some troubles, for the most part things will be cleaned up in about 3 months..........

Right now the most pressing problem as I see it are from extremist doomers who seem intent not only on expecting to see TEOTWAWKI but are prepared to take an active role in it themselves.....the kind of extreme moron who just can't wait to take a few shots at police or soldiers who may be doing little more than to come to their door to see if they are okay......

It will be interesting to which soap box Gary North etc........jump on after this problem is over. One thing for sure, this mentality that everything used to be great in the good old days and everything now is plain evil is the biggest bunch of codswallop that ever was possible.

If you have never rented "A Handmaiden's Tale" I suggest you go out and get it......it's fiction but gives interesting insight into a society where religious extremists take over the government.....all in the name of God of course.

A Merry Christmas and happy new year to all......and I mean ALL......not the small selected group "all" that some of the preachers of hate really propogate......

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), December 25, 1999.

"Right now the most pressing problem as I see it are from extremist doomers who seem intent not only on expecting to see TEOTWAWKI but are prepared to take an active role in it themselves.....the kind of extreme moron who just can't wait to take a few shots at police or soldiers who may be doing little more than to come to their door to see if they are okay......"

Give me a break. How many people do you think are going to do something like that? The cops are the criminals not the people.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 25, 1999.

Mitchell,

I've not reported on a CEO reporting on pipelines but I recently referred to Jim Lord's reporting the comments of "Mr. CEO" an anonymous reference to the head of a remediation co involved in various aspects of Y2K remediation not only with oil but electricity and other industries relying upon embedded systems for production. I also noted the NIST Report and its ramifications for the oil industry. I've had personal contacts with sources involved in the oil pipeline sector but not a CEO of a pipeline company.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), December 25, 1999.

Mitchell Barnes,

Did RC make the post he promised. I was looking forward to it. But as yet I havn't found hide nor hair.

-- gary (a@a.com), December 25, 1999.

Good luck, Mr. Adequate, good luck to us all.

I have often wondered whether our "predictions" reflect one of two things; 1) the level of preps we where able to procure, and, 2) the level of "mental" disaster we thought we might be able to handle, based on visualizing what we as individuals could mentally survive.

Just a thought...on a gloomy y2k day at/in 8.5 land...could give a 10 a try. Anything less is my bump in the road.

-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), December 25, 1999.

I can't quite imagine how anybody would drastically reduce their prediction. If anything, the number should be going higher. "Don't fill your tanks for Y2K, blah blah blah." I know my company isn't done with mission critical systems. Our contingency plan was to give employees and 800 number to call to see if the office is open.

It's not worth arguing about. One week from today, we can hopefully argue about what we've seen so far...

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), December 25, 1999.

For Gods sake please read Jim Lords last post.

http://209.26.203.146/subscribers/december.html

Then read;

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0026EK

on this board.

Anyone who can read just those two and still think it is going to be a BITR, is deluding themselves.

Stuck in the suburbs, preped for a 6, praying for a 2, will watch and probably die if it is a 10.

ONE THING TO REMEMBER, IT IS Y2K NOT D2K(day 2000). Even if things seem ok on Jan 15,2000, don't drop your guard.

-- woody (woody11420@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

Mr Adequate, I represent the the forgotten,hardworking little embedded chips that don't care diddley if our big brothers the systems are up and running, Many will rue the day they failed to understand our part in the big picture.Many of your brothers and sisters in the trade have disregarded our importance, so now must pay their dues. We are waiting to reek our vengence in Jan. It's very easy to understand the little systems but most difficult to understand interconectivity and fragility. NO oil=No auto=No workie Mr. Adequate. and we expect that very soon we will get the respect we deserve.Remember opinions are like anuses,everyone has one,Are you willing to bet your life on yours?

-- Mr.E.Chips (just waiting@goodbyemrchips.com), December 25, 1999.

Here is one for you to chew on for a while. My son works at a fair size industry that relies on computers from top to bottom. They were at first told they would be out of work the first for at least one week. That has be revised now, they will report to work, however it will be more or less on a standby basis. My son said that the company hired many crews to make the plant's computers compliant, then began to sabatage them in order to remain on the job. Not posting any names addresses, but this folks is authentic I assure you. The ones that are suppose to be providing a remedy are actually providing a problem.

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

And what is in it for Dr. Paula Gordon, Ed Yourdon, Jim Lord, Gary North, and others to give their expert opinion on what the future could be if Y2K is not addressed. Isn't their reputation on the line here among colleagues and the general public? I don't know who Mr. CEO is nor does it matter at this point in time but his scenario sounds reasonable. It's what's coming down the pike that concerns me, and it all comes down to either you believe and are prepared, or you continue on as you have everyday doing nothing. I have read more "experts" in the past 2 years that says were going down, than "experts" who have come forward and said everything is hype. As a matter of fact, it's the government that is saying no problems, maybe minor glitches, yeh, I really believe the government.

Interested Spectator: Your scenario seems plausible, but even the military will be in the same boat without water, power and oil. As for becoming a slave, I've saved a bullet for that scenario.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), December 25, 1999.

Weither the U.S. itself suffers a 2 or a 10, What happens internationally could cause major problems for us. No bank runs in the U.S. doesnt mean there won't be runs in Brasil or Japan. Oil gets tranported ok to the U.S. but what if Russias major pipeline to Europe shuts down for a prolonged period of time? Don't you think that will affect us? I can go on for a loooong time showing you ways international problems could have a direct or indirect effect on us.

-- Rich (rubeliever@webtv.net), December 25, 1999.

On a scale of 1 to 10 I judge Y2K to be an 11.

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

Linda Lovelace,

As usual it's not just a matter of how much, er, "information" you have, but what you do with it...

-- Firemouse (firemouse@fcmail.com), December 25, 1999.

inadequate,

havent you heard *anything* about the vulnerabilities of oil into the US? so what if all your computers havent crapped out yet. oil and embedded systems are such high risk threats.

i cant believe anyone can be that naive to say what you've posted.

-- lou (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), December 25, 1999.

Mr. Adequate: A visible lack of a large number of financial systems crumbling is encouraging, but you have to realize that this is but a small piece of the pie. The REAL test is, and always has been, what will happen when operating systems, embedded chips, etc., actually cross the line into 2000 (in addition to all kinds of diverse application software). Remember: it is now common knowledge that city/state/federal governments have spent megabucks on Y2K bunkers for the privileged few, equipped to sustain power outages, water/sewer failures, etc., etc. Somehow, the lack of 1999 Y2K related problems did not deter them -- don't let it deter you.

linda lovelace: I loved all of your movies, truly you set the standard back then that the movies of today are measured against.

Craig: You pathetic piece of crap. The vast, vast, vast majority of people who are preparing for Y2K are NOT hoping for the worst, and certainly WILL NOT become violent if the worst does not happen. Get that through your stupid head! Pus bag.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), December 25, 1999.

The rest of the world started too late and will experience recession which will overflow to the US, whether we have major problems or not. The achilles heel for us will be the extent to which embedded chips cause problems, especially with regards to our fuel supply of oil/gas. We can have all the computers in the world compliant, but if we don't have fuel to run them ... they are worthless. Given our short fuel inventories of 1 month, maybe 2 stretching it .... any disruption in the fuel pipeline abroad and here will impact us.

-- Lee Barber (LeeeeeeB@webtv.net), December 25, 1999.

Mr Adequate...I'm fascinated, in a horrified sort of way. How can you determine the outcome of an event that has not even arrived? IMHO, your change of opinion is just so much hot air. You are fully entitled to think what you wish, but your premise here makes no sense at all.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 25, 1999.

Re: Adequate opinion, I hope your right.

Re: Craig. "The Handmaid's Tale" was about a power-hungry leader who abused women who were "under" him...not "religious extremists". That someone says a prayer (like Clinton) doesn't make them religious(Monica will confirm). It was about hypocrisy more than anything else. Good try on your part, though, to link religious "extremists" with y2k..and the gun part, too..do you work for the government?

-- rr (rr@sover.net), December 25, 1999.

Craig: You pathetic piece of crap. The vast, vast, vast majority of people who are preparing for Y2K are NOT hoping for the worst, and certainly WILL NOT become violent if the worst does not happen. Get that through your stupid head! Pus bag.

KOS,

I suggest you go back and re-read Craigs post one or two times. I dont see where he is saying that preppers are the problem, rather the "over the edge, everything-is-a-conspiracy, the worlds going to end" doomers are the problem.

ps- I would mud wrestle you but its a bitch to get out of my fur.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), December 25, 1999.

Craig, that interesting book is The Handmaid's Tale, by Margarent Atwood.

It tells the story of a young woman in a post-revolutionary America ruled by an extreme, fundamentalist religious group. The heroine lives in the Boston area, and serves as a concubine for procreation of a ruling-cadre alpha male, under the immediate supervision of his lawful, but sterile, wife.

Doubt that this is highly relevant to y2k however.

-- Count Vronsky (vronsky@anna.lit), December 25, 1999.

Responding to Lilly above

"I have often wondered whether our "predictions" reflect one of two things; 1) the level of preps we where able to procure, and, 2) the level of "mental" disaster we thought we might be able to handle, based on visualizing what we as individuals could mentally survive. "

I have prepared to a greater extent than I think likely (for my prediction see the slightly older thread I started. link

I think your second point is a more limiting factor for most people. They can't or won't visualize that their comfortable life could change. I think that is a reason for a large predominance of Christians from sects that focus on Armageddon in the ranks of the preparers. They have already crossed the hurdle of being able to consider the possibility.

In my case, I would say that my preparations are limited by my resources and my unwillingness to exceed them for something that is unlikely. If I had Bill Gates' resources, then I would have an island with an underground bunker capable of surviving a nuclear exchange.

Mikey2k

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), December 25, 1999.

Mr. Adequate, thanks for your opinions and input. I'm an RN/horse trainer so not a computer expert, but I agree with you. We prepped for an 11 and y2k has been dominating my days since July '98. I have done everything I can to learn how to live without technology right down to a milk cow, chickens, and horse drawn equipment. Now we believe things don't look as bad according to some experts. However, I see other catastrophic possibilities besides y2k. I am a Christian and not walking in fear, but if y2k was bad I really wanted to be in a position to help others. Now we have learned TONS about survival and preparedness regardless of what creates the need. The worst case is that people will have excess food and supplies and a much better understanding of doing things differently. We are considering going off the grid regardless of what next year brings and we are selling eggs like crazy. My longwinded point is look at the good side of preparing. God bless all on this holiday.

-- morgan (bitbybit@eoni.com), December 25, 1999.

Here are some of the Y2Krackpots that Craig was referrring to...

All those that didn't prepare are sinners and will enjoy eternal damnation.

Infidel (Barbarians@thegete.net), December 21, 1999.

"I AM SO SICK OF YOU LOW IQ POLLYANNA IDIOTS....YOU ARE GOING TO DIE IN 3 WEEKS, SO STOP SPAMMING UP OUR BOARD AND GO BUY SOME FOOD YOU LOSERS!!!!!!!!!!!! "

p.s. I hate you!

Rational Doomer (doomer@big.time), December 12, 1999

"They will go away by slow painful death."

-- wacko (gonewackie@aol.com), December 12, 1999.

"THE CHEAPEST WAY TO OBTAIN NIGHT VISION EQUIPTMENT IS REMOVE IT FROM THE CADAVER OF U.N.FORCE MEMBERS AFTER THEY DESCOVER WHAT A FREE AND ARMED POPULATION IS CAPABLE OF!"

rumpled foreskin (hillarysucks@lesbo.org), December 01, 1999.

"Amen. That's how I figure I'll end up with my NV. And a new weapon or two. I know they don't want to come to Idaho. We're ready.

anonymous (anonymous@anonymous.com), December 01, 1999.

"Do I wish to see the present Federal governmnet completely disemboweled? Yes, absolutely"

Paul Milne (fedinfo@halifax.com), July 05, 1999.

"I hope ALL democrats die in Y2K.

-- goldbug (goldbug@mint.com), December 07, 1999.

"Another Polly is dead. Good riddance. The rest will follow shortly anyway when TSHTF."

(its@coming.soon), August 15, 1999.

"Just about any sacrifice is worth getting rid of it (federal government) and moving BACK to a Constitutional republic with extremely limited Federal government powers. Even if it means the decimation of the population. If the population is 'content' to live under this tyranny, then they deserve to be wiped out as a result of Y2k. They do not deserve to call themselves 'Americans' because they have not the first clue what an 'American' is."

Paul Milne, August 1, 1999.

"If the government becomes a tyranny, it needs to be destroyed. If the majority of those people support that tyranny, then they need to go too."

Milne, November 7,, 1999.

"I don't know about you all, but I'm right tired of the world as we know it....Can't wait for the sound of them cosmic keys jingling and that big voice boomin' across the skies, "Gentlemen....its closin' time." and the Spirit andmthe bride say, "Come, Lord Jesus!"

Jay Urban (Jayho99@aol.com), November 01, 1999

"This culture offers us corporate slavery and snickers bars, two car garages and shiney chains. The people are such contented cattle they'll never wake up to the fact that we need a revolution.I pray that y2k will bring teotwaWki bad enough that we loose the trust that has enabled us to be so complacently enslaved.Our numbers are too high anyway,if our species is lucky it'll be a few billion dead and not just a few million.The species doesn't need you or me just enough genetic diversity to ensure survival.Maybe then our species won't suicide like it appears to be so eager to do."

I pray for TEOTWAWKI (hopeful@doome.r), November 01, 1999.

"I would like to know if us on the West coast will ba ablle to see New York City go down when the ball falls in time square?"

Larry Lamb (gfmd@tgi.net), November 02, 1999.

"As long as "diversity" (3rd-world immigration) and "multi- culturalism" (anything goes) continues the USA will continue to drift from being a Christian (like it or not) cohesive nation to New World Odor"

Anonymous99 (Anonymous99@Anonymous99.xxx), September 09, 1999.

"People who want to survive Y2K should be prepared to kill."

(its@coming.soon), July 27, 1999.

"So, of course I want to see y2k bring down the system, all over the world. I have hoped for this all of my adult life." -- Gary North

"Nobody gives a flying f*** what you pollies post anyway. Life is to short, quit wasteing your time. The gene pool will be cleansed soon enough."

FLAMEAWAY (blehman202@aol.com), November 05, 1999.

"To be honest, the first one that is able to rend the mainstream press mute, would be one of the greatest American Heroes since Washington."

INVAR (gundark@sw.net), November 07, 1999.

"Noah didn't open the ark doors after it started raining and I don't plan on opening my doors either. Those pollies will have to die, just as they did in Noah's day."

Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), November 15, 1999.

"The government "strategy" seems most suited to facilitating a 5 to 7 scenario.

This is why I often root for a 9 or a 10. Time to thin the herd (flock), and hopefully take the shepherd, also. "

A (A@AisA.com), November 25, 1999.

"Klinton's plan is simple. He will turn out the power in NYC when the ball drops. Then declare martial law to stop the riots. Special UN troops will spread across the country burning and looting in each time zone as the hour passes and the lights are turned off. By Saturday noon, it will all be over.

Better be ready for the resistance movement."

NOWAY TOO MANY SPIES (AIN"TNOWAY@TODAY.COM), November 25, 1999.

"Check www.garynorth.com under martial law. Klinton is ready to make his move using Y2K chaos as cover to impose UN control over America. Its guaranteed this was all predicted in the BIBLE and now it comes to pass!

Klinton has ruined this country over past 8 years. Economically and socially the country is in tatters and depression, never has this country been in worser shape than now. No one can get a job, immorality and vice and drugs are everywhere. Klinton destroyed our armed forces, he even gave the atom bomb to Red China! And he did NOTHING about Y2K! Why? Because Y2K chaos is his chance to take over the country! Everyone knows this but no one did anything to stop him! Now Klinton, along with liberals and Jewish anti-Christian media are ready to make their move. Check out sightings. Check out troop movements of UN and NWO forces throughout the country. In San Diego they are building concentration camps. I saw them myself! UN vehichles are being stored in Texas. NATO troops have been sited in Modesto, making their move. Check our gary north for the details. And in 5 weeks the Y2K bug will devaste this country like nothing ever before giving perfect chance for,Klinton and Jewish liberals to make their move and enslave America and patriats. It has finally come to this.

Get your guns, your beans and your Bibles out. When UN and NATO troops make their move be prepared to resist their satantic push for world domination. Ferret out all non-christian traitors. Lock and load, and close ranks!"

Cal Talit (ctal@apple.com), November 25, 1999

The problem with tolerating polly's is that by the end of January they will be demanding that the government find our supplies and distribute them to the masses, And then we have to kill them.

goldbug (goldbug@mint.com), December 12, 1999.

Those who prepared will sleep safe in their bed, while those that did not will sadly be dead. -- (its@coming.soon), December 21, 1999.

-- major mysterious (major@mysteriou.s), December 25, 1999.

this was a good discussion until the last post. Sure put a damper on Christmas.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.

Mr. Adequate: This is a Y2K problem, as in the Year 2000, which doesn't begin for another week; it's not a 1999 problem. Look ahead programs are a tiny minority of the global computer systems that run things. This is so basic I don't see how anyone of any intelligence whatsoever can fail to understand it.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 25, 1999.

The book "A Handmaiden's Tale" is of course nothing like the movie. Read the book. A very surprising ending in the book.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), December 25, 1999.

Hey Y2kPro aka Major Mysterious. How's it going?

Mikey2k

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), December 25, 1999.

Mr. Adequate,

I am also a programmer. What you say is true, some systems are dealing with future dates now, but this is only a small percentage of the total. Most business systems work on real-time information, CURRENT-DATE in COBOL terms. Yes, parts of some systems have dealt with 2000. Billing for example. It may have taken the first step, and computed a due-date into 2000, but the it still has no year 2000 transactions. No year 2000 payments, no year 2000 purcahses, no year 2000 adjustments, unless the system has been time-machine tested, and don't even get me started on testing! We have very little year 2000 related information in the "world database" yet. Very little "history" to process, and most programs do just that, process "history."

And that little matter of embedded systems, virtually all of which deal in real-time.

It's a little early to call Y2K over. It hasn't even started. It's just warming up.

Tick... Tock... <:00= ...

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), December 25, 1999.

Not too good for pro, he just got sacked (pun intended) from his job in LA as Santa Claus...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.

Yes, I heard about that Andy, and just think, he told the child's mother that she was an evil person! Y2K Pro decloaked! He yanked off his beard, unbuttoned his suit and the parents covered their childrens eyes as they watched in horror. The security personnel whisked him off as he screamed "I am a good person, I am Santa Claus!" BAWWWHHHAHHAHHAHHHAHHHAAA!

-- horrified parent (horrifiedparent@horrifiedparenttt.xcom), December 25, 1999.

If you yot past mysterious to read this, congrats.

A few days ago, The Ivory coast (africa) had a change of goverment. There are some lessons there that might be food for thought.

The Ivory coast is a former french colony, and prior to this time was reputed to be the most stable country in africa. It is ethnicly mixed, has enjoyed relatively stable economics, and has been fairly peaceful, but its troops have been on peacekeeping missions in cetral africa.

The U.N., for the want of money from the USA and other countries not paying their "membership" dues, has been unable to pay on time or adequately the Ivory Coast Troops for their missions in central africa (think Rwanda/Brundi and neighbors).

For the want of money, these troops for reasons obvious, get a little upset. They go downtown, throw out the goverment (popularly thought of as corrupt) and proceed to loot the shopping districts and wealthy suburbs. They are now in charge.

The former goverment desperately calls upon the populace to resist. Not a ripple. We are probably looking at africa's newest military dictatorship.

Now how does this work? I bet if you asked the average citizen of the Ivory coast a month ago if this would happen they would probably say this:

"Sure, the military is upset about not being paid, but they'll work something out. It's stupid and paranoid to think that they (the goverment) will lets things get so bad that the army overthows the goverment."

It reminds me of that "want of a nail" analogy earlier this week that led to the loss of a kingdom. (see thread on Chaos Theroy)

Y2k, if anything, will be a struggle to deal with the failures that do occur using the manpower and resources avalible to fix them.

Failures + Repurcussions = Sum of Problem

Manpower + Resources = Sum of Problem Solving Potential

Which sum will be greater? In every sector (of economy/ infrastructure) faced by problems, there will be a different sums involved. The sum of a problem or a solution capacity in one sector can drasticly affect many other sectors. (i.e. power)

Essentially it's a mathmatical way of assesing problems. But until you know the facts, all solutions will be supposition.

We, each in our own way, have tried to "do the math" concerning y2k using the information avalible to us to make assumtions as to what will happen. As with the real-life example of the Ivory Coast above, Sometimes doing the math in advance, even with many facts, will not result in a "beleivable" solution to all. In retrospect, however, it makes perfect sense, even though all the facts are not known.

Events like the Great Depression come to mind. A very small minority of people thought that it could seriously happen. Imagine talking to anyone in the months and weeks coming up to the crash of 29... "yeah, buddy, right... Times are too good for something like that to happen."

But now, the factors and causes of the great depression are known, and the efforts and events that led to it's end also. Considering the impact the great depression had on the people of it's time, isn't it a wonder more people wern't aware that it could happen? Compared to the news about y2k, the great depression came out of nowhere and shatterd the economies of the world like an earthquake. Much like the change of goverment in the Ivory coast seemingly came from nowhere. Oh, I'm sure some people "knew" these would happen in advance, just like we know what could happen in 6 days now, but it won't really be real until it does.

I'm sorry if I am covering ground that has been trodden, or offend anyone with this post. I've been an infrequent visitor over the last few months and only recently a regular. I hope someone finds this useful, even if it's at the end of a long thread. Take care and good luck to you all.

-- Lonelyroads (Lonely@faraway.net), December 25, 1999.

link at

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=0026Qj

Gonna ramble a bit here, but there is much to discuss. What is sticking in my mind are some of the comments made to R. Reagan's GRACE COMMISION in the 1980's. The Commission members interviewed the leading financial experts and government finance personalities in many of the South American countries. When the Commision asked, "How long did it take your economy to go from a state of normalcy to hyperinflation?" the answer was, "One week".

"One week", think about it! We have just gone through an 18 year bull market for bonds and stocks. Commodity inflation has not been much of a problem during this period. In fact commodity prices have been remarkably stable in spite of record money creation by the Fed and the banking system. They have been stable dispite the fact there exists a massive and rapidly increasing amount of $US currency in circulation throughout the world. It even more remarkable that commodity prices have remained under control given the enormous float of counterfiet currency in circulation (estimated at between 10-20% of the total currency float).

The commodity complex has been a relatively unattractive investment compared to bonds and equities over the past 2 decades. The lack of investment/speculative interest can partially explain this lackluster performance as can the disinflationary policies of the last real central banker, Paul Volker. Manipulation is one other means of suppressing prices. The commodity complex has recently been showing signs of life while also giving us glimpses of a massive secret campaign to keep commodity prices in check. The best illustration is the blatant manipulation of the gold market. (please refer to www.lemetropolecafe.com for detail). Last week it was disclosed that in an attempt to keep the price of palladium in check (a price increase of any precious metal will spill over into the others) the US Government has liquidated virtually its entire stockpile of this very strategic metal. Now Russia remains virtually the lone supplier of palladium to the world market. Incredible!

No doubt the same powers are working overtime to keep the oil complex in check. It is a losing battle IMHO and this is being reflected in the bizzare behavior and statements being made by Richardson, Clinton and the rest. In fact, they have already lost the war (how do you fight a insoluble computer design error?) we just don't know it yet.

Indeed, I believe the Y2K problem will be the tripwire that releases the shackles from commodity prices and ushers us down the nasty and demoralizing road to hyperinflation. It will most likely start in the oil complex and rapidly spread to all other real commodites. This process should start within the next three weeks and keep going for years. Remember, it took the SA countries only 1 week to go from normalcy to hyperinflation.

Why? It is so simple. The lack of energy and a breakdown in the JIT process will severely impare our ability to create and process/refine new supplies of commodities. The exisiting stockpiles instantly become very very valuable as future deliveries are suspect. If your orginazation intends to remain in existance, it must stockpile all necessary supplies IMMEDIATELY. No choice in this matter! Add to this the incredible amounts of bank created funds and currency in circulation , what will stop this great price expolsion?

So as a civilization here we sit, going into the last year of the millenium largely ignorant and complacent about the economic ramifications of Y2K. We are in love with our grossly inflated paper assets and all the toys (SUV's etc.) they bring us. Things are so good, we cannot imagine bad times and we will not listen to any objective voices of caution. Technology has served us incredibly well and of course we humans have complete control over our high tech! - or do we? Boy are things going to change - and fast!

Likes: 1. gold coins 2. junk silver coins 3. 2-4 week deposits 4. Unhedge gold producers and junior golds 5. Commodity based companies

Dislikes: 1. bubble stocks (the whole high tech complex) 2. deposits and bonds with a maturity of greater than 1 month

More than anything else, I believe that liquidity is your friend.

"A commodity in hand is infinitely more valuable than a promise to deliver." Y2K mantra

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 26, 1999.

I want to thank all of you for your comments. I particularly found Sysman's remarks relevant.

-- Mr. Adequate (mr@adequate.com), December 26, 1999.

Mr. Adequate,

I hope you don't mind a little friendly criticism.

A shift of eight points in one month indicates a lack of knowlege.

Any person who has been following Y2K issues closely would have gained a huge amount of knowlege concerning Y2K, especially in the last two years. There is absolutely nothing that could obviate such a huge base of knowlege in just one month.

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), December 27, 1999.

Hmmmn.

Is there any evidence, other than that from a self-serving media and government which has made a deliberate practice of lying repeatedly and abusing its power over the past 8 years to get power, then to stay in power, that year 2000 will not yield a series of unpredictable, wide-reaching problems affecting unpredictable number of systems and processes?

What evidence do you have that the result will be a "2"? In what area(s) will it be worse? What will fail? What will not? Granting perhaps that banks will be okay - what retailers will be operating at full capacity? What manufactors? What distributors?

-- Robert A Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 27, 1999.