OIL SLICK or THE SLIPPERY SLOPE

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Having worked for two large oil and propane suppliers in the last two years, I can tell you that if there is a problem with energy it will be severe.

The companies I have worked with have little or no contingency plans, and have done little or no remediation. Their perception is that Y2K is a joke and that they can handle any problems.

They have little knowledge of their own supply chain and are hoping that after the New year the price will plummet so that margins can be fattened up.

The rise in distillate prices have severely hurt the "retalers" at the expense of the refiners and I believe its probably true that inventories will be kept as low as possible in anticipation of the "big drop" after the 1st.

Problem is that retailers keep very small reserves on site and are not staffed for a "panic". Most have trouble with drivers hours in a normal winter forget about a situation where they are pushed to keep up with added demand.

Propane is in the same boat, if there are supply problems "watch out" because price will spike out of sight and inventories are already low in some areas Its a long way from the Middle East to here. When one considers that every step of the supply line requires transportation over water, or pipe line, into a refinery then reshipment by rail or truck. SHOULD BE FUN!!!

I know of retailers with no backup plans for problems and little or no security.

-- FRODO (FRODO@MIDDLEEARTH.com), December 25, 1999

Answers

Nice post, Frodo. It describes what appears to be (from a layman's point of view) massive arrogance, and fatal underestimation of this problem. When you're used to having everything your way, I guess you get to thinking you are invincible. Embeddeds FOF in an hour or two, or day or two, though? It makes me want to shake the arrogant asswipes. Don't they know they are risking **everything** on this wild gamble? Just runnning down stocks for want of a better price is exactly the WRONG thing to do if we expect to mitigate any of the shortages in January. They're going for the buck, though. Okie, dokie, I guess ball game is now officially over. No wonder Beavis, err, Bill Rickardson is begging Americans not to tank up next week. Is that pathetic or what? We have an impotent enegery secretary who is reduced to begging the consumer not to consume, rather than to lay the lumber on the damnable suppliers who are holding back.

"That's what makes America great", they keep telling us. We'll see how great at the end of January.

-- paul leblanc (bronyaur@gis.net), December 25, 1999.


Interesting observations Frodo. Thanks a lot!

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 25, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ