some thoughts on a worst case crash/cross postedgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
--allright, I shoulda waited until after the Holy days, but all of a sudden got an urge to ramble. Of course, I could change my opinions tomorrow, too.....
I'm still at a 15. I'm expecting a series of ups and downs starting with a major down on the 2nd day after rollover, then a slow up and down with longer downward trends through the summer. Then when fall/early winter massive food shortages develop, coupled with US involvement with several wars at once then a rapid fall to a fifteen. chaos. End of the US. Texas seceeds, and has a massive war with Mexico. Western canada seceeds from the federation, and a lot of canadian feds out there are introduced to exotic uses of hemp, in it's twisted and braided form. Portions of the fed gov try to stay in power, but even their immediate family members tell them to give it up or else. North America suffers a few nukes to finalize our involvement overseas, as in ending them. Several admirals and generals go mercenary with their assets. Very small local governments are the biggest remaining effective power structure, and resort to localized bartering for economics. A lot of disease takes hold, starting in the south and spreading northward, including released genetically engineered biobugs. Microsoft becomes a hated word, as untold millions of peecees bite the dust. Greenbacks become useless as billions of stockpiled counterfeit notes are circulated. Durable goods and recognizable US coin become the last real money. Collector coins, bulk bullion, gold chain, precious gems lose value because of ease of counterfeit, or mass unrecognized value. Used vehicles will be pennies on the dollar, as well as a host of electronic consumer goods. Practical hand tools and durable commodites and foodstuffs will be the best form of money. Good quality water filters will be worth a used mercedes car. Rifle and shotgun ammunition will increase in value around 5-10000% within 6-9 months. Cigarettes, liquor, condoms, pain killers, prescription drugs all raise dramatically in value. Firewood becomes almost more valuable than oil as chainsaws and tractors breakdown and spare parts become unavailable. Folks with horses and mules will have to guard them night and day. Household pets will pretty much disappear. A good pair of boots will be worth a months labor. Body armor will become normal attire for many, and a lot of it home made from old aramid side wall tires cut up and homemade into vests. Many small villages centered around well prepared in advance farms will develop. Those with good communications skills and workable ham radios will become the new internet and mail and newspaper service. RN's and LPN's will replace most doctors as primary healthcare providers. Most forms of schooling will stop for most children, with a small percentage of outstanding exceptions. Crime will initally rise to astounding levels, then drop back down as the predators are wiped out by a resurge of most adults carrying firearms openly becomes common. There will be a lot of racial strife, and non English speaking residents will be persecuted in most areas, many will attempt to flee on foot. Bicycles become the norm of travel, as well as very small motor vehicles, like 4 wheelers, go karts, mini bikes, mopeds, etc as fuel becomes astronomical in price. Wealthy people who try to maintain affluent lifestyles will be in great peril, and limousine travel becomes extremely hazardous. "Hoarder!" Becomes the new cry of contempt, as idiots who failed to prepare try to boost their egos in the only fashion that their pea brains can come up with. People who have spoken out in favor of preparing will be drawn to become local governmental leaders, and usually drafted by their fellow neighbors and citizens. A lot of politicians, business leaders, and reporters will relocate, and lie about their past work and history once they get to some new place. Most folks, although admiring and remaining friends with individuals in police forces, will come to regard the police as about unnecessary anymore, and there won't be any money to pay them with, so most local forces will drastically reduce in size or simply cease to exist, replaced with extensive neighborhood watch and local newly organized volunteer militias. Folks who opt out of militia affiliation will usually not receive any emergency help, be it crime or fire or medical. The catch word will be "Volunteer" if you want to be "part" of a local community. Rural, arable land will increase in value so much that it won't be sold very often, like internet stocks are now. Land with clean artesian springs will be worth what office buildings or malls go for now, if available for purchase. All sorts of inheritance tax will disappear, never to come back. Banks and money lending will primarily consist of pawnshop type establishments, with a lot more barter. Sawmills that are able to still operate on alternative energy will become major local businesses. Recycling will become a major, and extremely hazardous profession, as old dumps are "mined" by thousands for building materials or whatever. Good 12 volt batteries that can still hold a charge become worth amazing amounts of money or goods, and old ones become rebuilt in startup shops. Real "Mr. Fixit" shops come back into vogue, as new items become increasingly harder to get, and older ones break. People who are equipped for sewing and repairing garments and shoes keep working steady. You'll feel middle class if you have two wheelbarrows without flats. Thousands of old fashioned ice saws come down from over mantles and barn walls up north and get used again next winter. Greenhouses go up everywhere, and most suburban front lawns are turned into vegetable gardens. Any optomemtrist who can still grind new lenses can virtually write their own ticket, and become extremely wealthy in a short time. Those than cannot suffer greatly, as will most of the other specialized MD's. Oil lamp globes become worth more than the lamps themselves, as most will be broken by unfamilar use in the first few months. Most large game east of the missippi will disappear, and "strange" animals will become common table fare to folks who've never eaten them, like possums, racoons, groundhogs, muskrats, etc. Most of the trout dissapear, as restocking of fingerlings ceases. Most migratory game birds will disappear. The "obeseing" of America will be replaced with a nation of scarecrows. Anything mechanical and old fashioned will be worth more than newer electronic gadgets in the barter market. Globally, alliances and countries will appear and disappear almost daily, with hundreds of small wars over resouces develop. Use of some nukes, and a huge amount of chem and bio war materials becomes very common. Slavery will exist in most countries, maybe at least in 3/4 of the globe. Rogue military navy ships from many countries will be pirates, both looting on sea and in small invasions in port areas, as they scavenge for food and fuel and booty. Past members of the internation jet set become increasingly isolated in small redoubts in a few countries, most noticably switzerland, which will remain mostly intact, at least for the first two years or so. China, russia and north korea form a temporary military alliance and seize huge parts of the globe, but are unable to hold them as their logistics break down, then those countries gradually fall apart as well. Israel finally gets hammered really hard, and retaliates with nukes and destroys damascus, cairo, and baghdad before finally succumbing. The Moslems finally get what they have been wanting, a return to the middle ages. Slavery is state institutionalized in all those countries and regions. India and pakistan use up their nukes on each other, leaving huge portions of both their countries uninhabitable. Most of western russia suffers radioactive fallout from nuke plant disasters, and siberia becomes the new center of russia. Africa, becomes the truly dismal hell on earth it almost is now. Some lucky people will manage to escape. South america becomes what it was 100 years ago, with brazil maintaining it's dominance due to sugar cane and alcohol fuel production. Mexico becomes several smaller countries after the PRI government loses it's war with texas, and various localized guerrila wars topple the fed gov there. The leaders mostly go to the US and brazil. Cuba loses castro and communism, but doesn't gain any sort of democracy or representative government as a succession of military commanders stay in power. Most try to remain friendly but at arms length from the US.
The big winners will be passive alternate energy, a resurgence of underground homes, personal freedoms-at least in the US- and alternative healthcare, as it will be mostly what's available. Religion will come back bigtime, in all flavors, with many new churches started, and many old ones failing, and other forms of worship as well. Vice laws will disappear in most places. Drug use and alcoholism will remain about the same as now. Pipes will replace cigarettes a lot, with "blends" of various herbs being mixed with expensive tobacco. Real coffee will be a weekend treat for most. Watching an old tape on a 12 volt vcr will be a real family and friends event. Chicken and pork will be the most common domesticated meat, beef will be the big loser there, except for areas where cows can free range. Milk will almost entirely disappear because most dairy cows will have to be slaughtered from mastitis as hand milking is impossible on a large scale. Stockmarket "investing" will lose all credibility, and a thousand new jokes will arise, all told with bitterness in the voice.
-- zog (email@example.com), December 25, 1999
Welcome back and Merry Christmas to you and yours!
Not for the weak hearted: I think this is a graphic representation of "worst case", you just forgot about the killer packs of pet dogs turned wild and dismembering infants, as well as the looters/or Mexicans/or Chinese/or UN troops/or KKK raping 5 year old boys and girls. And uh natural gas lines exploding in neighborhoods killing the first million American causualties of what Lockhart calls "y2fake". Guess you wanted to spare us cause of the holiday, heh.
-- Hokie (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
Pretty good analysis, except for this:
Collector coins, bulk bullion, gold chain, precious gems lose value because of ease of counterfeit, or mass unrecognized value.
Gold bullion coins are impossible to counterfeit, as there is no substance of the correct density that is less valuable than gold. If it's the right size and right weight, which can be verified by looking up the specifications in a reference book, it's gold. Or you could calculate the specific gravity fairly easily; pure gold, as in the Maple Leafs and other .999 coins, is about 19 s.g., and the 90% coins like the Eagle come in at about 17, if I recall correctly.
-- Steve Heller (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
This polly drivel still exists less than one week before the rollover? This has got to be a joke. I hope you pollies don't show up on my doorstep looking for food, as evidently you have underprepared.
-- Butt Nugget (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
Glad to see your having an upbeat day. [G]
-- Got Donkeys?
-- Greybear (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
When you don't have any play partners when you're growing up then you develop a vivid imagination. Maybe new year, zog will find some people to play with.
Why couldn't you throw a little Soylent Green into your story Zog?
-- Guy Daley (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
Guy, soylent green won't be able to be made because the factories are not compliant and will disappear.
-- rr (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
Thanks, zog, for expressing my fears more thoroughly and succinctly than I could. The obvious point you didn't bother to mention (but I'm sure you understand) is that at such a level of tech and basic production this world couldn't support more than a billion human beings. That means 85% of the population must die off rapidly--in the first three years? New centers of power will emerge where resources of energy/food/precious metals/transportation/weaponry are plentiful (possibly small "empires"); and a strong new religion based on "Reality studies"--the equivalent of Christianity during the later Roman Empire--will sweep the globe. Criminals (ex-media, government, rich, as well as common criminals) will be employed for toxic and radioactive waste cleanup. Much of our tech and engineering skills will be lost forever, but look for a Renaissance again. circa 2350.
-- StanTheMan (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
This is a graphic demonstration of what happens when the eggnog runs out. And it ain't pretty.
-- Robert (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
Geez man! This is not a 15, its TEOTWAWKI you are discussing. As a point of discussion, I don't buy most of it. There are just a few valid points however.
1) Canada could well become a problem. Almost nobody has factored the Quebec situation into their Y2K/Government continuity scenarios. I do NOT see the U.S. getting involved directly in such a fiasco, but rather individual states being drawn into border skirmishes to keep out refugees as well as terrorists. The greatest risk here is for Vermont and New York that share a border with Quebec.
2) Texas/Mexico. That could happen sometime regardless of Y2K. Very nasty situation down there and one that cannot be dismissed as a wacko prank. BTW...it has nothing to do with hate. There are loud factions in Mexico who still believe that Texas and large portions of the Southwestern U.S. should be in Mexican control. I have nothing against Mexico in general, but if they storm the Texas border, it will be our civic American obligation to kick their ass.
You know something Zog? None of us are comfortable with our fears about Y2K. As Nietzsche said, "Even the bravest among us has the courage to face what he really knows." Think about it. In the interim, you should chill out a little and try to relax. We will get our answers soon enough.
-- Irving (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
Oops! The correct quote is...
"Even the bravest among us rarely has the courage for what he really knows."
-- Irving (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
But won't you be disappointed when none of this happens...?
-- january will be so (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
On optometrists grinding lenses: when an optometrist grinds a lens, the *only* thing he's grinding is the edge -- using a template -- to allow it to fit in the selected frame.
The blanks are molded to the prescription at the factory, and unless you're talking single-vision, no-astigmatism, no-prism prescriptions, chances are they won't even be made *at* the factory until ordered.
-- Ron Schwarz (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California
People who have spoken out in favor of preparing will be drawn to become local governmental leaders, and usually drafted by their fellow neighbors and citizens.
People who have spoken out in favor of preparing will be drawn and quartered by local governmental leaders, and their preparations divided by their fellow neighbors and citizens.
-- Dancr (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 26, 1999.
I would add organized crime to the pretty picture. And I'm not optomistic enough to think that even TEOTWAWKI can wipe out TPTB.
But with enough eggnog I can completely flip and imagine the world going on pretty much as it has been.
Crystal ball totally fractured. Never was much good anyway. Pick a good deck chair... cruise or crash, its going to be an "interesting" ride.
"Cheeks tight, fingers crossed, toes curled, we look forward to that "E Ticket" ride into the New Millennium." - John Anderson Y2K NewsRadio
-- Linda (email@example.com), December 26, 1999.
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 28, 1999.
This was sent to me by a fellow programmer as a joke. You people aren't really serious - are you? You do realize that what you are describing can't happen? Unless suddenly there is a huge belief in the doomsayers, the majority of the population withdraws money from the banks, sells all their stocks/options, and riots in the streets. But that would be caused by stupidity, not a date glitch.
-- K Wheeler (Kent_Wheeler@yahoo.com), December 28, 1999.