Jim Lord Makes Y2K Predictionsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
The December issue of my newsletter, the "Journal of Personal Freedom" consists entirely of my predictions for the remainder of the Year 2000 Crisis. It is available on my website at:
Click on Subscriber's Area on the left side menu, then again where it says "Click here to view online newsletters."
Use "12PM23" for the password and enjoy. Please excuse formatting challenge with graphics--we're working on it
The following comment is off topic but I like it a lot. It is "borrowed" from my friend, Howard Ruff.
If you were accused in court of being a Christian, would there be enough evidence to convict you?
My best to all for a great Christmas.
-- Jim Lord (JimLordY2K@aol.com), December 24, 1999
Jim, thanks for the link. May God also see fit to bless you in relation to all you've done.
-- Nabi (email@example.com), December 24, 1999.
Hey llamaBoy..butt out now while you still can.
-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), December 24, 1999.
-- cd4 (A@M.k), December 24, 1999.
A royal thank you, Jim! Happy holidays to you and yours.
-- King of Spain (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 24, 1999.
Adobe Acrobat. Yuck!
-- (email@example.com), December 24, 1999.
HERE YOU GO,Jim.A quick course in HTML Shame on you for slamming the troops!
-- cd4 (A@M.k), December 24, 1999.
If you go to the site via the means Jim posted here, you are given a choice of downloading in either PDF or HTML. I downloaded the HTML version and am reading it now.
-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), December 24, 1999.
HERE YOU GO,Jim.A quick course in HTML There you,Y2K again!!!
-- cd4 (A@M.k), December 24, 1999.
Thanks Jim, excellent as usual.
-- John (jh@NotReal.ca), December 24, 1999.
Don't forget your check book for a two year suscription!!!!
-- mj (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 24, 1999.
The combined projections, if manifestated will not be as clinical as you purport, I fear.
-- d----- (email@example.com), December 24, 1999.
Merry Christmas to you and your family. I admire your courage and strength. May God continue to richly bless you.
-- snooze button (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 24, 1999.
Your dedication is invaluable in terms of both inspiration and information. Many of us have come to know you as one of the most reliable sources of unadulterated sources of fact and insight.
You also wear another badge of honor-- you have been one of the most instrumental factors in saving numerous people's lives.
Kitster (the 55 gal metal drum guy in Charlotte)-- May God Truly Bless, Protect, Keep and Comfort You and Yours'... See you on the other side.
-- Kitster (Best_Wishes@_The.Rollover), December 24, 1999.
After reading the report, I have only one question? Shall I bend over and kiss-my-ass goodbye now, or wait till after the CDC. Based on the report, the result is the same.
-- Primus the Last (help@help_we_are_gone.bye), December 24, 1999.
Merry Christmas, Jim Lord.
You deserve a big vote of thanks for your work and effort on all of our behalf. I just read your newsletter. Whoa boy. You do spell it out.
I can attest to the PC software issues you spoke of. It took me 10 hours to wade through the report analyzer and the fixes and I suspect the fun isn't over yet.
One issue on telecommunications that is integrated with the Y2K problem is the mass retirement of long term, professionally mature people who know how to get things done. Since the Bell system and related companies never had a clue how much it cost them to provide services, there has been a lot of belt tightening in the name of productivity and quarterly earnings. In things go south, it will get ugly in a hurry. A lot of the newer people do not have the depth of experience to FOF.
I feel like I am in a roller coaster that is heading up the first hill... clack clack clack
-- Nancy (email@example.com), December 24, 1999.
To the top of New Answers (where this should stay)
-- BiGG (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 24, 1999.
Thanks Jim, for sharing your latest thoughts and for all you have done for so many. Your book was one of the first I read about Y2K, and I knew you were a class guy when I saw that you had autographed it. You always managed to come out with wonderful examples that folks could readily understand - like the canyon filled with marbles or Oscar the Dummy. You even have been a big enough person to admit when you have been wrong, and take chances when you felt that you were right. God bless you Jim. All the best to you and yours. You deserve it.
-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@thanks.Jim), December 24, 1999.
Thanks and with great respect from another old Navy hand.
FTM2 Woody ****** sends his thanks.
I consider you to be the king of the moderate doomers.
-- woody (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
Thx, Jim for all your excellent information over the past many months. Your credibility and integrity have made your comments and insightful and valuable to those of us willing to listen. I've been working with IBM mainframe systems for almost 24 years and (I'm sure you can appreciate this), the ONE thing we ALWAYS worry about is trying to get the systems back up and running after a power down. Since the days of UPS we haven't had as many "crashes", but even with a planned power down we ALWAYS have many components that simply WILL NOT power back up without replacing parts or whole assemblies. Many small and medium (and perhaps large) systems will not have adequate UPS or any UPS at all and will therefore crash if there is a problem with power. That can start a snow-ball effect which can "ripple" through-out an industry or supply-chain. I don't know how this is going to pan out, but I'm sure it won't be pretty. Best of luck to you and yours.
-- POITS (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
Thanks again to you, Mr. Lord, for all of your efforts.
My predictions are similar to Lord's, with the following exceptions:
Banking: I think bank runs are unlikely in the US, and likely (vs. "virtually certain") overseas.
Telephone service: Lord implies the only problems will be people checking for dial tones at the rollover. I predict short-term and sporadic disruptions lasting about one week in the US.
Public transit: I don't foresee disruptions in this area.
Biggest surprise: The Alaska Pipeline prediction is disturbing. I haven't heard much about this crucial supply line, and have seen no evidence to indicate a long-term breakdown. I predict one of the big three auto manufacturers will suffer a long-term shutdown as my "surprise", although I'm not sure that would qualify as a "surprise" to many.
Stock market: I don't foresee the market falling to 2,000. I foresee a more realistic "bottoming out" at about 8,000.
Depression vs. Recession: I agree with Lord that "There is zero probability Y2K will pass by without affecting the global economy". My odds are 80-20 in favor of a strong recession vs. a full-blown depression (vs. Lord's 50-50 toss-up).
War: Again, I'm more optimistic than Lord. I see only a 10% chance of WWIII within the next 12 months, vs. Lord's "80% or higher".
The rest of his predictions seem fairly accurate. We're about to find out. I have never wanted to be wrong about something more than with Y2k.
The roller coaster ride is about to start. Hold on to your valuables. Those with weak stomachs may want to reconsider their decision to ride without their seat belts. All others, Happy Christmas and strap yourselves in...
-- Steve (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
You wrote, "Stock market: I don't foresee the market falling to 2,000. I foresee a more realistic "bottoming out" at about 8,000."
This type of thinking regarding the market seems quite common. Namely, that a 'really bad' outcome could shave 30% off the market.
Quite frankly, if the broad market (S&P 500) were to lose 50%, it would still be overvalued by every historical measure. That is, if y2k is *nothing*, and the market drops 50%, we would be at the level which normally represents a bull market *top*.
DOW 2000 is not only realistic, but perhaps even unduely optimistic given the far reaching consequences of the items discussed within Mr. Lord's recent article.
-- Me (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
Me: Perhaps. I think there are so many controls in place, however, to prevent such a freefall from occurring. For thousands of corporations and millions of investors, a 30% correction would be devastating.
Obviously, the market will respond to many factors, chief among them confidence. Should Y2k unfold as Lord predicts, confidence will plummet, and Dow 2000 can't be ruled out. I'm simply having a difficult time coming to grips with the idea, I guess. Doesn't mean it's not possible.
With Y2k, just about anything's possible...
-- Steve (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
Thank you Jim, and Holiday Blessings to you and yours!
I'm forwarding the letter to my Dad, who was in the Navy for 20 years, hope that is okay with you.
Here is a snip for you folks of Jim's newsletter:
Chances are eighty percent or higher we will be involved in World War Three within the next twelve months. The conflict will not take place in this country, however, except for the possibility of foreign terrorist attacks. Y2K could be a catalyst for these events or they might happen regardless of Y2K. My reasoning on this possibility is borrowed almost entirely from the work of Richard Maybury, the most brilliant geopolitical analyst in the world today in my opinion. Read his book, The Thousand Year War in the Middle East, and his newsletter, Early Warning Report for Investors. For more information call 888-925-2555 or see his website at www.chaostan.com.
In a coordinated scenario, I believe several or all of the following conflicts will occur simultaneously: China-Taiwan, North-South Korea, India-Pakistan, Balkan replay expanding to include several more countries, Persian Gulf replay expanding in the same fashion, and a general conflict involving Israel and several Arab nations.
We will become involved because Bill Clinton and Tony Blair are war- mongers who cant help sticking their noses into other peoples affairs. These guys are addicted to power and playing soldier keeps their juices flowing.
As a result of Clintons belligerence and his incredible success in manufacturing foreign enemies by the millions, particularly nasty thugs, we will likely be the target of foreign terrorism. There is a fifty-fifty chance biological weapons will be used. Cyber-terrorism is also a strong possibilitymost likely against the electrical grid or telecommunications capabilities. A nuclear threat also exists but is less likely.
On a daily basis I hear rumors and reports that the government plans to impose martial law before the end of the yearDecember 28 is the date I hear most often. I have yet to see any compelling evidence that this is the case. I do see strong evidence that they are prepared to do so if necessary.
That is very different from intending to do so, however. My best guess is that martial law will be declared (by state governors, not the federal government) in half a dozen major cities. If I had to name names I would say that Washington DC, Philadelphia, Atlanta, New Orleans, Miami, Detroit, St. Louis and Los Angeles are the prime candidates. My sense is that it would be welcomed if it happens.
All bets go out the window if there are a couple of serious terrorist attacks. If that happens Bill Clinton will declare a nationwide presidential emergency (whatever that is). Congress would go along in a heartbeat. I would consider that a passing through the looking glass kind of event. Theres no telling what might develop. The militia and patriot groups would come under intense pressure. Some would respond by taking their guns and heading for the hills believing that a final conflict had begun. They would claim that the terrorist attacks were staged by the government to provide an excuse for the declaration of martial law.
Let me reiterate, I have no evidence suggesting the government is planning anything like this. I do think were entering a very dangerous period with a high degree of paranoia on both sides, the government and those who hold it in contempt. This is a tinderbox and Y2K looks more like a spark every day
The biggest surprise of the entire Y2K drama is that failures of personal computer will be vastly more serious than anticipated. Two areas will be especially important. 1) Y2K impaired Real Time Clocks used with server Operating Systems will bring huge networks crashing to their knees taking down major enterprises. 2) Non-compliant application software will impair millions of users. The biggest provider of Y2K-flawed software will beMicrosoft.
According to Jerry Heidtke who conducted a detailed survey of Microsofts publicly available Y2K compliance information, Bill Gates is in the deepest of doo-doo. Jerrys study (posted on a popular Y2K discussion group) revealed a fascinating picture.
Just since Dec 1, 393 Microsoft applications have had Y2K status changesalmost none for the better. Of these, 53 are rated compliant, 11 cannot be made compliant, 159 need updates that aren't available yet, 76 need new updates that are are available, 4 don't process dates, 4 are considered compliant with acceptable deviations, and 76 have changed from compliant to under revision. There are another 34 products on the yet to be tested list, some of which were previously listed as Y2K compliant.
These data tell me Microsofts Y2K efforts are in a total shambles. My guess is they are at least a year behind the curve and flailing around in utter chaos trying to plug all the holes in the dike. Untold millions of customers use these products for mission critical purposes in their businesses.
My best investment tip of the millenniumbet against Bill Gates. By the way, if you want to beat the rush and join in the Y2K class- action lawsuit against Microsoft, visit my website at www.JimLord.to and register for the Y2K Gravy Train. Theres no charge and it might be fun. What the heck, if somebodys going to get rich off Y2K, why shouldnt it be you?
Government and Big Business (especially Banking and the Electrical Utilities) have painted themselves into a perilous corner on Y2K. The Press has been a more-than-willing accomplice. If Y2K turns out badly, these institutions will face a public already fed up with their duplicity. The international scene is likewise precarious.
I believe that even without Y2K we are on a cusp. The irrational, volcanic stock market, the unstable global economy, the poisonous domestic political landscape, the white-hot volatility of the geopolitical mess. The post-Cold War world is like a room full of balloons filled to the utmost tautness. And Y2K is a porcupine.
The Post Y2K World
All that said Y2K is not the end of the world. Its a technical management problem and if it knocks us on our can, well get back up again and move on. We always have before and well do it again this time.
Another book I recommend is, The Fourth Turning. by Strauss and Howe The writers postulate that history runs in a circular pattern of four turnings similar to the four seasons. Crisis, High, Awakening, Unraveling then Crisis again and so on. They demonstrate that we have gone through six cycles of these turnings over the past five hundred years.
Strauss and Howes model says we are currently in the latter stages of an Unraveling phase leading to the next Crisis in the early years of the 21st century. By this reckoning Y2K is right on time. I dont think Y2K is the Crisis but it could well be the catalyst.
After the Crisis, however, comes another High--a time of protracted peace and stability. I also foresee an explosion of liberty born of such technologies as the Internet, cryptography and alternative energy. Its funny how things work out. Our mismanagement of technology has put us into this bind. And if we are wise enough it will give us the tools to restore the world and, potentially our freedom in the bargain.
A Final Word
During the brouhaha over the Navy Utility Survey, the New York Times called me a prominent doom-sayer. Then, the White House called me irresponsible. I will freely admit to you that being called irresponsible by Bill Clinton is a badge of honor I will always treasure. I hope my work has been beneficial to you and your family. You are in my prayers. Good Luck, God Bless and Happy New Millennium. Well see you on the other side.
-- Hokie (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
Here's my prediction (worth what you're paying for it!):
The DOW will drop at least 10% on Friday, Dec. 31st, thus triggering at least one of the "circuit breakers".
On Monday, January 3, 2000 the Dow will drop by 30%, thus triggering the final daily circuit breaker (= market closes for the rest of the day). Alternately, technical problems, lack of power or regulatory body edict will prevent the market from opening at all.
From that point on, the real selling begins.
-- Me (email@example.com), December 25, 1999.
To the top...READ THIS!
-- BiGG (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 25, 1999.
To the top...Did most people miss this over the weekend?
-- BiGG (email@example.com), December 27, 1999.