How bad does everyone expect y2k to be? I have not changed my oppinion from the 7 to 10 that I started with. This is the reason that I bought my shotgun... Where is everyone else, on this scale? This is the last time I will ask. Everyone, please respond... Oh, and a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to you all~! <:o)

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 24, 1999

Answers

With no hesitation, 1.

Everything is solved.

Llama

-- Bernard (Llama man@cool.net), December 24, 1999.

I'm going for a 5-10, based on the amount of time and effort being spent on "just in case" preparations by State, Local and Federal agencies. They know more than we do. This terrorist business is a ploy. If someone comes down with dandruff in Alaska, it's a terrorist plot. Whatever can and will happen with the rollover, it won't be the rollover, it's a terrorist plot. 5 - 10 for me.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), December 24, 1999.

2.3 on optimistic days. 3.8 on extremely pessimistic days. After reading some of "the concerned citizen" posts found here though I find myself at about a 1.1.

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), December 24, 1999.

I've gone from a 10+ to hovering around a 6-7. I know a wide range of people in diverse tech fields, and most of them (from a major alarm company, FDIC, telco switches, oil, etc)do not anticipate a problem. Still, as someone posted, Y2K is a microcosm of many other things that can go wrong, worldwide, so my idea of preparation is to use what I store. THAT WAY, the actual cost of preparation is greatly reduced, and so is the lost sleep.

-- Mr. Mike (mikeabn@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

Richard, "If someone comes down with dandruff in Alaska its a terrorist plot". Are you a terrorist polly?

-- Butt Nugget (catsbutt@umailme.com), December 24, 1999.

7 to an 8.

-- Billy Boy (Rakkasan101st@Aol.com), December 24, 1999.

5.

Safe middle road......

-- Forrest Covington (theforrest@mindspring.com), December 24, 1999.

"...for the last time..." ? That seems unlikely!

I currently have no idea what to expect. Never did, anyway.

One minor prediction: Geography has been destiny in the past, & probably will continue to be. To quote Infomagic: "Get out of the cities. Get out of the cities. Get out of the cities. Get out of the cities." (He really said that. Still gives me shivers.)

Enjoy the holidays, folks.

-- prepare for bad (hope@for.good), December 24, 1999.

û i

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), December 24, 1999.

Severe depression but no martial law and the lights stay on. I guess that is a "7".

P.S.: No significant terrorism or virus problems beyond the norm.

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), December 24, 1999.

62

-- spider (spider0@usa.net), December 24, 1999.

3-4. But that because I am trying to believe all the reports the gov and corps are releasing are true.

Six more days until it starts.

-- hamster (hamster@mycage.com), December 24, 1999.

We seem to know less now than we knew a year ago. Back then I was a 7. Now I'm focussed on my responses - how my neighbors are doing, my emergency communications work, my family, my community.

I've predicted 50k dead in the US of cold and hunger, up to 300M dead of famine alone, worldwide. Haven't seen any reason to change those numbers.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), December 24, 1999.

After carefull review and research i remain a 2-3.... Their are still the unknown areas of terror and global interference that play a roll in our lives . With no major systems down for more then ten days we will make it>>> Or at least my family will... See you on the other side of 1/1/2000.....PEACE

BLUE

-- BLUE (BLUEFISH@thepond.com), December 24, 1999.

I'm so sick of the whole damned subject that, "Frankly my dear, I don't give a damn."

-- gilda (jes@listbot.com), December 24, 1999.

It changes from day to day and today it feels worse than ever. 7-10 God, I wish this would just go away.

-- Mat (Stillnot@sure.com), December 24, 1999.

No, I am not a terrorist Polly. Just think that one excuse is as good as another. By no means do I discount terrorism. Seems like every government across the globe is getting ready for some really big problems. I feel our government is using one problem to cover another.

-- Richard (Astral-Acres@webtv.net), December 24, 1999.

Still a 7, has not changed from over a year ago.

-- Ray (ray@abc.com), December 24, 1999.

Expecting a 6 but prepared for an 8.

-- Stars and Stripes (stars_n_stripes@my-deja.com), December 24, 1999.

I am still at 6 to 8 so I guess you can put me down as a 7. I was getting hopeful for a while, then the reports of all the government preps came out.

Bill in South Carolina

-- Bill Solorzano (notaclue@webtv.net), December 24, 1999.

As the days march determinedly toward 01/01/00, I find myself becoming less and less certain that I know what's coming.

Slowly the magnitude of what I've been preparing me for is coming into focus in my mind, and I find myself recoiling in horror and fear. Denial is flashing his seductive smile at me.....I try to ignore it by reviewing my preps and different scenarios in my mind and pondering the difficult questions that arise. Will all my loved ones survive? What have I forgotten? Do I *want* to survive to face whatever life has in store?

Can this *REALLY* happen? Nothing bad has ever happened to me before....how will I react? Will I have the strength of character I hope I pocess?

I find myself hungrily puruseing every *good news* article I encounter, wanting desperately to believe it. Then experiencing almost unreasonable anger when I *can't* believe it.....

I'm soooooo tired of every conversation Hubby & I have starting with "IF Y2k is bad.." or "IF Y2k isn't bad.."

I JUST WANT THE @#%! WAITING TO BE OVER!!!!!

Ok, sorry....rant over.....

My *short* answer is, unfortunately, I think it will be an 8-10 by June.

I wish you all a PEACE-full, JOY-full Christmas. May God abundantly bless our magnificent planet.

-- Sheila (sross@bconnex.net), December 24, 1999.

Hey man, since the gov says to take this in a layed back position, and to not worry. I have read them for what they are, I am preparing for 10 or higher. I trust our gov as much as I feel I could win the lottery jackpot, biggame.

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

I'm hoping for a 0100, but I expect a 1000 to 1001...

"The flames of technology burn at one end, while the flames of human nature burn at the other..."

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), December 24, 1999.

I trust the government as much as I feel you could score over 60 points on an IQ test.

-- IQ TESTER (no@business.here), December 24, 1999.

A 10 was never possible, (barring nuclear war which is not y2k related) anyone who says a 1 or 2 doesn't work in IT, (we're already at a 2 and have been for some time, where have you been?) so I say a 3 to 6. A handful of terrorist type attacks, one or two major, more power outages than most think, 5 or 6 areas is my guess, JIT problems which in fact I think just boost the American economy. Look around you, every other thing you own made in China, Korea, etc. Those who can help fix problems relatively quickly, those who can't sit on sidelines, those who think they know it all continue to criticize, I can not fathom anyone so arrogant as not to prep at all unless you simply can't afford it. To many terribly intelligent and experienced poeple still say at best it's an unkown. I was really surprised yesterday at a party how many absolute pollies had started some preps, mostly water and 2 weeks worth of food.

-- Howard (roark@not.now), December 24, 1999.

IMHO, at CDC probably a 2-4, then by 2/1, probably a 5-7 due to petro problems, then as small companies billing and scheduling impacts large manufacturers by 3/1, JIT system fails and the trucks stop rolling, an . . . 8 . . .9 . . . 10 . . .

It's human nature to be in denial of disaster as it approaches, but it's not realistic.

-- elskon (elskon@bigfoot.com), December 24, 1999.

I believe it's roughly going to be a 8.3720198473628173648578392209847719286453, or thereabouts, give or take a smidge.

Retentive Kook

-- Y2Kook (y2kook@usa.net), December 24, 1999.

Still expecting a 4-6 unless oil takes a very big hit or .gov screws things up as they are wont to do. I have (hopefully) prepped enough for an 8.

-TECH32-

-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), December 24, 1999.

Useless question without a frame of reference. One person's 7 is another person's 2. For ex: what Gus calls 7 I call 2.

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 24, 1999.

Still a 8-9 after 2 years.

-- Jim Bob (izzitover@yet.com), December 24, 1999.

Those of us working in IT/IS already are pretty confident of mulitple disruptions. The wildcards are still the embedded isues, JIT, WATER/SEWER and oil. If we survive that all we have to worry about is the financial sector. Now everything should be clear. 6-7 in the US 8-9 most other places. The house of cards comes down over the next 1.5 years.

-- Polly-Morphic Doomer (greenem312@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

Agreed IS, what will TEOTWA(T)KI look like to a person in a $300,000 home and a salary to afford it, if a soup line is in their future? Not the same, I'm sure, as to the people who've already been there.

-- spun@lright (mikeymac@uswest.net), December 24, 1999.

O.K. So lets say it's a 3 in the U.S. but say in Japan it's a 5. And say the Japanese panic which causes a HUGE hit on their stock market. Considering that NBC will be having 24 hour coverage of global stock markets that day, how do you think Wall St. will take that, especially knowing that an economic tsunami is headed their way in just a few hours. This could easily cause what would normally be a 3 in the U.S. to a 6-8! I think one has to look beyond the actual glitches themselves and realize that the stock market is driven by 2 things, facts and/or emotions. I'll bet the emotions win out on this one!

-- Rich (rubeliever@webtv.net), December 24, 1999.

Using the scale of 0 as a non-event(ha!), 1-2 as a bump in the road, 5 as a 1982 recession, 6 and the 1972 recession, 8 as the Great Depression, and 10 as TEOTWAWKI, where are you?

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 24, 1999.

7-8

barring global thermonuclear catastrophy/war and oil disruption at only 10-15% for a month or two

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 24, 1999.

8 and climbing by the minute...

-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), December 24, 1999.

Survey Says! 4-6

Evidence Says! 0-1

Common Sense and Personal Experience Says! 1.5-3 in US with some vendors going under. Outside US will be worse, but how much nobody has a clue.

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 24, 1999.

Told 10, expect a 5, get a (3)???? Prepped for a 7+

-- RJ (LtPita@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

If we loose power for a long enough time nationwide: 10+

If not 2-9, depending on the economics and oil situation.

In 8 days of normal activity without eating, you will be unable to move without extreme effort. Even after 3 days without meals (normal activity) you will still be in a desperate state. We need food to stay warm, to act (move) and think clearly.

Water, heat.... We cannot survive in this world without the basics.

-- Lonelyroads (lonely@faraway.net), December 24, 1999.

I have upped my expectation from a 5 to a 6 but prepared for an 8. I have sufficient ammo and a garden for somethine > 8 or 9.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 24, 1999.

Still seems to be some confusion about what the levels mean.

 

Scale	Economy	Business	Infrastructure and Utilities	Society	Government
0	Irrational exuberance; DJIA breaks 12,000 in 1Q2000	A lot of money spent, but improved quality and efficiency	Everything works just fine	New era of good feelings and optimism	Federal and state governments come out looking superhuman
1	Y2K's impact on economy is lost in the noise	Some small to medium enterprises (SMEs) have Y2K problems	Some failures, but all caught quickly and handled well	No impact	No real problems or impact
2	Some market adjustments (stock index down 10%) but recovered within 6 months	Businesses are jolted a bit and scramble to recover; a few supply chain issues	A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas; air traffic slowdown due to consumer caution	Y2K jokes in late night talk shows trigger an inadvertent panic or shortage	At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems
3	Stocks down 20% and don't recover until the end of 2000; growth flat through 2000	Businesses have Y2K 'holidays' during January to get things fixed	At least one regional brownout/blackout (2-3 days); most airlines scale back flights for Y2K	Surge in stockpiling at end of 1999; drop in consumer confidence and spending	Y2K issues dominate 2000 elections
4	Economy contracts 1% over 3 months; unemployment rises to 6%	Bankruptcy/acquisition of at least one Fortune 100 company due to Y2K problems (internal, supply chain, foreign, legal)	Transient interruptions in utilities (3-7 days); cutbacks for at least a week in various transportation systems	Isolated social incidents, including discover and prevention of militia-type terrorist plot timed to coincide with Y2K	At least one major gov't agency (HCFA, IRS, FAA) requires that significant contingency plans go into effect
5	Mild recession (-2.5% over 6 months); unemployment rises to 8%	Major disruptions in production, processing of raw materials, supply chain, manufacturing	Scattered infrastructure & consumer supply problems lasting up to two weeks	Some population shifts to states and regions that appear to be better prepared, milder climates	HCFA not ready for Y2K; Federal government comes under criticism
6	Strong recession (-5% over 18 months); unemployment to 10%	Most businesses suffer Y2K impact; significant die-off in small to medium high-tech firms as funding, markets dry up	Urban infrastructure, supply problems lasting 2-4 weeks; lesser problems elsewhere; significant transportation disruption	Widescale stockpiling starts earlier in 1999; protests and isolated looting in some cities over Y2K weekend	IRS not ready for Y2K; Congress votes in flat tax, but deficit explodes due to reduced collections, increased social services
7	Severe recession (-7.5% over 2 years); unemployment to 15%	Widespread layoffs, cutbacks; one of the Big 3 auto mfgrs is acquired or collapses	Regional infrastructure, supply problems for 1-2 months; at least one major environmental disaster	"Peoples Needs" movement organizes community groups to distribute food, other necessities	Widespread gov't problems; both parties blamed; centrist party arises and denies others a majority
8	Depression (-21% over 3 years); unemployment to 25%	Major meltdown, with massive consolidations and closings in manufacturing and production industries	Infrastructure, supply chain crippled for 3-6 months	Protests, riots in several large metropolitan areas; at least one foreign terrorist attack on US soil timed for Y2K	Curfews and/or martial law imposed in many large cities
9	Profound depression (-40% over 5 years); unemployment over 30%	Radical cutbacks, mergers, or failures of 50% of the Fortune 500 within 3 years; 80% of SMEs fail within 3 years	Collapse of infrastructure, supply chain (6-12 months)	Widespread social disruption, including internal terrorist from militia groups	Widespread but ineffective martial law; election in 2000 disrupted or cancelled; de facto seces-sion of at least one state
10	Collapse of economic system (currency, banking, financial mkts)	Collapse or radical transformation of most mid- to large-scale enterprises	Long term (>1 year) shutdown of infrastructure, supply chain	Social chaos	Radical downsizing, transformation, splintering, or collapse of the US government

-- bw (home@puget.sound), December 24, 1999.

God Only Knows. sooooooooooo

-- Tess (preparingfortheworst@prayingforthebest.com), December 24, 1999.

We are currently operating in a 2 environment. Momentum is quickly moving us towards a 3 and we still have 7 days until the rollover, when the big problems hit everywhere all at once.

Looks like we go from a 2 to the unthinkable...in a matter of days.

Prepare.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

Good Day all!

Been down with flu/bronchitis for some time now...back up now!

Economically, I figure it'll be an 8

-But don't forget all that sabre-rattling in Asia.

-- (Kurt.Borzel@gems8.gov.bc.ca), December 24, 1999.

As a scientist, I have had to look at a huge amount of data. I have also had to reject spurious or ridiculous stuff. I also have to make a judgement call on the reliability of the source of the data. If the source has been reliable in the past, I tend to weigh the source's input more highly than a less reliable source's input.

Reliability seems to drop in direct proportion to the amount of "face saving" the source of information needs to have to remain in a position of social strength. Examples would be elected government officials, fortune 500 companies, and social services. If someone has "nothing to lose" in speaking the truth--and would lose little if any social strength, then I weigh the data more heavily.

After reading about hundreds (if not thousands) of y2k related glitches and outright failures that have already taken place, I've come up with an analogy. Think of the current world economy as a person going through a mosquito-infested swamp. Each bite corresponds to a computer-related failure. When the person stops to scratch the itch or swat at the mosquito, a hesitation of the person's move through the swamp takes place. To a microscopic scale, the economy has slowed just a hair, for each y2k-related problem so far encountered--but not enough to stop it.

Now imagine about a million mosquitos landing on this person all at once, with a few hornets and wasps thrown in. The effect on such a person would be he would be blinded and in shock from all of the pain. Whether the person survives depends on whether he is allergic to mosquito bites or hornet stings. The world economy on 01/01/00 (or 2000) will take millions if not billions of such y2k computer-related 'bites.' What isn't known is if the economy is "allergic" to these bites or not.

Based on that analogy, I say we're in for an initial 5 which probably will ramp up to somewhere between 8 and 9 by March or April.

-- One of the Pair (PairoDocs@eworld.com), December 24, 1999.

hmmm... 7-8

-- joe (joe@adeveloper.net), December 24, 1999.

I think we'll start at a 4.5 (above scale, but end up at 10) You see suppose we're lucky and we end up with "just" a level 4.5 event (which to me means, no power for 5 days, no water and sewer for say 5-10 days, extensive problems with oil, and therefore transportation of food, etc. for 14 days due to industrial problems as well, a normal winter (i.e. its cold), and schools closed.

My guess is most people are going to stay at home to look after their own (as to me any situation where there is no power, heat, water, sewer for 5-10 days is serious to most people to make them adjust their priorities) and there will be less people actually doing any fixing. In this event I think the situation would escalate to a level 6-7 event (what ever that means). I think once we reach that threshold the event will take a life of its own as cascade effects of lack of people, failing systems cause a feed back loop to continue an escalation upto some stead state level at 8-9.

You see most people do not realize that any dynamic system does one of two things - self-destructs or reaches steady state. While the system is not at either one of these situations, it will move there. The point is will y2k give a starting point that is "over the edge" so steady state will come with catastropic consequences as we topple over, or will y2k give a starting point from which we can right ourselves?

I believe that a starting point of 4 to 4.5 on the above scale is over the edge and steady may mean we in the developed world have to dissappear for all practical purposes. TEOTWAWKI (i.e as WE know it) but it will go on just fine for those on farms in the third world.

Also any speculation on how much the non-mission critical systems that have not been remediated are going to corrupt the "compliant" ones?

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 24, 1999.

Firmly entrenched at "7" and have been for a long time. The possibility of 10+ exists for the following:

1) The Northeast. The electricity could be off for a LONG time and the potential for widespread suffering and death due to no heat is massive.

2) Upper Midwest: Same as above.

3) If Oil also goes down large scale...by this I mean gas over $3 per gallon if available at all and heating oil at $2.25 per gallon with the same caveat.

4) Widespread social breakdown prompting TPTB to go for Martial Law resulting in civil warfare.

5) Nuclear war...IMHO, HIGHLY UNLIKELY.

I am prepped for 8+. Hoping for a BITR or less. Fully expecting a 7.

Miracles aside, the next few months are not going to be good.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 24, 1999.

I've said 3-4 all along, but given the terrorist issues, petroleum issues, and whatever the weather brings, it could well go to a 5-7 by summer.

As I said in my earlier post, start testing your pc now! It took me about 10 hours just to wade thru the Microsoft fixes. Haven't started on Adobe or Quicken pages yet...

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), December 24, 1999.

I dealt with a 10 in my mind when I GI'd 10 months ago.

I've prepped for a 10, but prepped "in place", a small city.

I've preached a 10 to family and close friends all this time. Lost half of them.

My desperate search for anything to prove me foolish - oh, how I want to be foolish! - has turned up one tiny ray of hope for my own city's electric power, delivery of a 3 month supply of coal, in all this time. I was so excited about the coal I cried for days. But it's a small thing.

Someone on this thread said "It's human nature to be in denial of disaster as it approaches." Nope, I said, not for a minute. Nope, not me. I'm too busy keeping my wits about me. Until right now.

Today, with a week to go, I broke down. I can't face it for one more minute. It can't happen. Does saying it can't happen put me at a 1 or 2? I must look at the chart again.

Please God, let all of us be humiliated. Let all of us be wrong. I like the words "it can't happen."

-- Scat (sgcatique@webtv.net), December 24, 1999.

Psychologically it starts next Friday. On the East Coast with gas stations running out of gas and the Stores running out of some food. Masses will get a little spooked and will begin to focus in on "what if". Then once the masses are at that state we will roll into the New Year where all of the cyber bugs will be loosed along with some horrific show stoppers from terrorists.

And this is before there are any noticable problems. So now everyone is jittery and a little more than nervous. On monday Stock markets falls and people line up at banks etc. Some imbeds pop which compounds the fear.

Then everything rolls down the hill gaining momemtum.. fear,glitches,more fear,more glithches,... who knows where the bottom will be????

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

This to those who assume a 10 and prepped for it:

To me this means that regardless of how we get there (i.e. we start at 10 or reach 10 within say 6-9 months) then within 3 months after that:

a) most people in the cities will be dead (citizens, armed goons, etc. due to lack of water, food etc.

b) the military may be around for 3 months longer assuming discipline has not already broken down.

c) those outside the cities that did 1st world preps (i.e. stock-piling) are dead.

So if you planned for a 10, the only way you could continue to survive is that you have prepped to continue life without anything of the modern world (i.e. back to living off the land). Is this what you have done? How do you plan to protect yourselves for that long - if you're found then your ammo will not last too long? Second have you considered that you'll probably end up as "slaves" (since you know how to live off the land and they don't) for the armed goons that took over graineries, bakeries, and other large stashes of food at the main food manufacturer's and are therefore still alive causing havoc?

If you haven't planned for this, then am I correct that you have really just delayed your own demise?

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 24, 1999.

Geez, There's so many Newbies I've never seen,that I was wondering where the forum regulars are. But anyway, I still think it's a 6-8 on anyone's scale.Could be a little worse here in Bermuda, but maybe we're the "8" and you lot are the "6". I haven't changed -really- in the last 12-18 months.On another note,MERRY CHRISTMAS you lot,I'm putting Y2K on the back burner for tonight at least. Have a blessed Christmas, If His birth was what started the day we are celebrating, then how much more I anticipate His return! All the Best!

on de rock

-- Walter (on de rock@northrock.bm), December 24, 1999.

GoldReal:

According to the chart bw provided, we aren't as high as a 2 in any of the 5 categories. So where does your 2 come from? I suspect this is preparation for a strategic rearward advance. Enough such "grade inflation" and people can claim as much as a 6 or 7 without 90% of the population even noticing it!

Incidentally, according to that chart, I don't see anything worse than a 3 at the most, and a 2 looks most likely.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 24, 1999.

4 to 6

-- gary (a@a.com), December 24, 1999.

BTW, I meant for the last time THIS year, I feel that some of the net might be up next year, at least part of the time, so I'll ask where everyone thinks it is at that point. We are in a 2 now, So, we can't go any lower.

-- Crono (Crono@timesend.com), December 24, 1999.

Haven't wavered for 2 years still a 7-10.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), December 24, 1999.

Still 7ish. Still optomisticish.

-- I'm Here, I'm There (I'm Everywhere@so.beware), December 24, 1999.

Snort! The chart has five categories, and we have not reached as high as a 2 in any one of those categories, even momentarily. So both GoldReal and Crono have us at an overall 2 already. And last week, someone had us already up to FOUR!

When they have to choose between reality and their fantasies, some people here choose to deny reality. Sometimes this is more subtle, but even when faced with the chart itself, they STILL do it. Hey, dodos, commitment is great, but try tempering it with, like, kindergarten-level thought, OK? You can do it!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 24, 1999.

Put me down for a 10, although it may take until the middle of the year to get that bad. Of course, I could be wrong. If nothing extraordinary happens by the middle of February, I'll revise my estimate significantly and will post it here.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), December 24, 1999.

Flint,

* Some market adjustments (stock index down 10%) but recovered within 6 months.

Within the last 4 months, the stock market indeed had a 10%+ correction. However, it has since bounced back nicely, due to manipulation by the Fed.

* Businesses are jolted a bit and scramble to recover; a few supply chain issues.

Hershey's comes to mind here. There are numerous other examples.

* A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas; air traffic slowdown due to consumer caution.

Again, numerous examples. Just check the archives. As for air traffic, most airlines have already announced they will not fly due to "lack of public interest" in flying between December 31 and January 1.

* Y2K jokes in late night talk shows trigger an inadvertent panic or shortage. Okay, this one hasn't happened and wasn't ever going to happen, in my opinion. J.L. and D.L. are no Johnny Carson.

At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems. What was the number of States that Congress recently said wouldn't be able to provide essential services to the needy, after the rollover? Was it 9 ?? or 17 ?? Sure, they are currently holding up. If not, we would have heard about it. Just read about a Driver's License problem. Isn't that State Government? Sure it is. I'd consider that a "serious" problem.

Flint, since you pulled my string, I'm going to take this opportunity to wish you Happy Holidays. And in that frame of mind, let me also say, I admire you for your courage. It takes a strong constitution to brashly stand in the path of what appears to be imminent physical harm.

However, you have miscalculated and your position of reasoning away the problem will soon be cut asunder, leaving you hanging in the wind without a base to stand on. You see, you have mistakenly identified the culprit as having human morals, when in fact, the culprit has no morals. It won't care how many people it causes to suffer. It won't even care if it self-destructs.

Your courage is admirable. Your belief that the tank will stop, then turn aside and not run you over is flawed reasoning. You see, this time, the tank is on autopilot with no human controlling it.

I bid you farewell.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

hmm, by the chart provided above, I'm an 8. I fully expect (at least) a Global Depression.

-- Dan G (thepcguru@hotmail.com), December 24, 1999.

The term "supply chain" seems a misnomer. "Supply ring" would be more accurate. Moreover, our society consists of not one, but a multitude of intersecting supply rings. One break in one ring can compromise not only that particular ring, but cascade to others, with the total effect not necessarily bounded. Therefore, 10.

-- David L (bumpkin@dnet.net), December 24, 1999.

7-8. I'm fairly optimistic by nature. Have a nice Christmas, all.

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 24, 1999.

Predictions by sector, using the WDCY2k scale referenced above:

Economy: 5-6 US, 6-9 foreign Business: 5-6 US, 5-10 foreign Infrastructure and Utilities: 2-3 US (only sector improvement since last year), 3-7 foreign Society: 4-9 US, 4-10 foreign Government: 4-7 US, 4-10 translated to foreign gov's

The US will NOT be an "island of prosperity". I expect the economic impact to last years. Utility disruptions in the US more severe than the 2-3 level changes everything.

Hoping for the best...

-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), December 24, 1999.

I didn't consider myself a polly until I saw the other responses. And I've been pounding the table at work and to my friends since July of 1998 that Y2K would be very serious (8 or 9).

I'm preparing for a 6 ... but expecting and hoping for a 3 (at the worse) in most ex-urban and rural areas of the country. Probably a 3.5 in the cities.

Then cascading troubles until a 4 or 5 by 12/2000.

FWIW....

Lara

-- Lara (nprbuff@hotmail.com), December 24, 1999.

Overall globally I expect at least a 6.5 - 7.0 Am praying for nothing more than a 4; but, God only knows as no one else does.

-- justme (justme@myhouse.com), December 24, 1999.

Imfomagic was right all along,....it's coming to be a "10."

This does not mean that it will all happen on Jan. 1, 2000 but that will be the starting point.

-- Sure M. Worried (SureMWorried@bout.Y2K.coming), December 24, 1999.

Two quick updates to my earlier post on this thread.

a) Scat: A great post. I think a lot of us feel that way.

b) Flint: I respect your committed Polly status. You know what??? I want to be WRONG about Y2K...so utterly and completely WRONG! Contrary to what some might think, I have no interest in seeing innocent folks freeze to death, starve to death, get shot by gangs or any of the countless horrors anticipated in this forum. The serious difficulty facing me presently is that I have yet to see any evidence that I actually will be proven wrong. All we have been getting is spin and news releases written or at least monitored by corporate lawyers.

I reserve my right to be worried.

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 24, 1999.

Preped for 7+, expecting 5 - 6. Expecting a lot of resiliant, non- quiters with backbone to step up to the plate and solve some harry problems. USA is STILL the best place in the world! It got that way by a lot of good people working their butts off. Things have gotten raggity and a bit rotten the last few years, but I'm betting there are enough heros of the old breed left in this country that we will pull through. I'm counting on some of you here to fill these shoes! We MUST NOT ALLOW civilization to end here and now!

-- ds (ds@deepsoth.com), December 24, 1999.

Crono: Level 7 by March.

-- Neil G.Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), December 24, 1999.

A "3" A bump in the road....BUT "ONE BITCH OF A BUMP"

-- Prepared (Lurking@the edge.com), December 24, 1999.

it will seem like a five economically, but will be a twelve spiritually. Cast your gold and silver into the streets and beg for mercy from the Lord.

-- Nikoli Krushev (doomsday@y2000.com), December 24, 1999.

GoldReal:

I appreciate your addressing my point. I think I should reply as well as I can, and maybe we can understand one another a little better.

[* Some market adjustments (stock index down 10%) but recovered within 6 months.

Within the last 4 months, the stock market indeed had a 10%+ correction. However, it has since bounced back nicely, due to manipulation by the Fed.]

Well, permit me to consider this special pleading. The market is exactly where it was 6 months ago. It is WELL above where it was a year ago. Yes, it has fluctuated, as always. But I don't think fluctuations ending up above where we started is a "correction" by any stretch of the imagination. Even if you're right and the government has somehow "manipulated" the market, that still doesn't constitute a correction.

[* Businesses are jolted a bit and scramble to recover; a few supply chain issues.

Hershey's comes to mind here. There are numerous other examples.]

Yes, and there always have been. Is it unreasonable to look for an *abnormal* rate of jolting and scrambling? Because we haven't seen anything abnormal. I think this category refers to businesses generally, rather than a few carefully selected businesses. You can *always* carefully pick a few jolted and scrambling businesses. There have been NO supply chain issues. My interpretation of the description here is a fairly widespread pattern of scrambling, rather than a small number of isolated cases well within normal, everyday ranges.

[* A few short-lived (1-3 days) problems in certain areas; air traffic slowdown due to consumer caution.

Again, numerous examples. Just check the archives. As for air traffic, most airlines have already announced they will not fly due to "lack of public interest" in flying between December 31 and January 1.]

And again, aren't we looking for something *unusual* here? You could pick any time at random over the last 50 years and find "a few short- lived problems". You could find numerous examples. But we're talking about problems outside the range of the ordinary. I concede airlines have been declaring an 8-12 hour hiatus in flights, but I don't think this really constitutes an "air traffic slowdown due to consumer caution" so much as a prudent why-risk-it policy due to airline caution.

[At least one state government runs into serious Y2K problems. What was the number of States that Congress recently said wouldn't be able to provide essential services to the needy, after the rollover? Was it 9 ?? or 17 ?? Sure, they are currently holding up. If not, we would have heard about it. Just read about a Driver's License problem. Isn't that State Government? Sure it is. I'd consider that a "serious" problem.]

Your definition of "serious" is seriously stretching things. Not one single person has been denied driving privileges or unemployment insurance. As for problems with essential services *after* the rollover, I agree. Your claim was that we are at a level 2 *now*, not after the rollover. Predicted problems with services are not a current problem.

[Flint, since you pulled my string, I'm going to take this opportunity to wish you Happy Holidays. And in that frame of mind, let me also say, I admire you for your courage. It takes a strong constitution to brashly stand in the path of what appears to be imminent physical harm.]

I wish you happy holidays as well. However, to praise a man for what he does not possess is to make him appear foolish. It takes no courage to stand in the path of what I consider a figment of your imagination.

[However, you have miscalculated and your position of reasoning away the problem will soon be cut asunder, leaving you hanging in the wind without a base to stand on. You see, you have mistakenly identified the culprit as having human morals, when in fact, the culprit has no morals. It won't care how many people it causes to suffer. It won't even care if it self-destructs.]

No, I'm not basing my arguments on human morals (just ask Big Dog [grin]). I'm basing them on as careful an assessment I can make of *likely* impacts of date mishandling by computer software. And of course, I'm well prepared to be wrong.

[Your courage is admirable. Your belief that the tank will stop, then turn aside and not run you over is flawed reasoning. You see, this time, the tank is on autopilot with no human controlling it.]

You are looking at a toy tank through a telescope. Y2k problems are genuine, and will cause plenty of grief. I don't doubt that at all. But there's no need to exaggerate the problems either. If you believe we're at a 2 now, then you must believe we have *always* been at least at that level. To me, this is highly misleading at best. Yes, the world wobbles along, filled daily with whole newspapers full of misfortune. My take is that *normal* conditions must be considered our baseline -- a 0 on the scale.

What you're doing with your special pleading is the same thing you've been doing to blow y2k all out of proportion -- carefully selecting your evidence, carefully ignoring the rest, carefully assigning self- serving interpretations to what you have selected, confusing predictions with current realities, on and on.

I predict harder times to come for many, as a direct result of date mishandling errors. But those times haven't started yet whatsoever, no matter how hard you try to pretend they have. And why rush it, it's coming soon enough.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 24, 1999.

I'm hoping for a 7 (best case) though am on record for saying 10+ if we go into a "poisonfire" situation i.e. nuclear skirmishes, possible nuke meltdowns, chemical and bio leakages etc.

Yes it takes a big leap of the imagination to envisage a 9 or 10, but tell me what those folks in Hiroshima were thinking back in '45 as they went about their business? Those folks in Pompeii? Who would have predicted the end of the cold war (ha!) and the dismantling of the Berlin Wall?

No - a 7 to 10+ are all TOO possible.

Fingers crossed.

"As a net is made up of a series of ties, so everything in this world is connected by a series of ties. If anyone thinks that the mesh of a net is an independent, isolated thing, he is mistaken..."

Buddha

"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination. But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism to a certain collapse. In this way the end of the world will be brought about."

Sufi Prophet Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan's prophecy (Complete Works, 1922 I, pps. 158-9)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 24, 1999.

OK, I'm off the fence. I'm a 6.0, and this wasn't an easy decision. I've been a solid 6.5 for almost a year, and I was a 9.0 a few years ago!

I just hope, that all of the "good news" has been enough. I hope that folks like the GAO are crazy. I just hope that some of the "spin" is true.....

Tick... Merry Xmas, almost, (AKA T-7, depending on how you count)... Tock... <:00= ...

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), December 24, 1999.

I would say 5 to 7, with possibly some elements of 8. This is pretty much where I've been all along, except for some occasional dips to 3 or 4 along the way (when I was overwhelmed by happy face news) and spikes up to 8 or 9 (when I happened across a run of especially alarming news).

But I still don't have any really good sense of what's going to happen. And still, when looking in my pantry or eyeing my stored kerosene, I don't know whether I've over prepared or under prepared.

A year and a half ago I would have laughed if someone would have told me that I wouldn't know any more now than I did then....but they would have been right.

All very humbling and I'll be glad when the situation is finally clear.

-- dhg (dhgold@pacbell.net), December 24, 1999.

Though a newbie here, I've been a opinionated Y2K-prep presence in several other forums - most notably http://www.kitcomm.com/cgi-bin/comments/gold/display_short.cgi#start and http://webm926e.ntx.net/protection/ and, again, the Y2K prep e-mail forum.

THAT SAID

I VOTE FOR 6 over the New Year's weekend, rising to a 7 by mid-January and 8 by Jan 31st, with 9 by Feb 29th and 10 by April-May.

Personally I'm prepared for 10+ or several years. I won't need much to survive that long IF the bandit gangs don't come out in force. (which may be unlikely here due to climate & topography)

Compared to our resident "homeless" person {living in an old mine shack outside of town} I figure that shelter, food, water and warm clothing are all that are truly necessary. But, for those now living the comfortable life of microwaves, videogames and shopping malls, such a come-down would be the end of civilization as they know it.

-- Joe, aka "Squirrel" (solitar@chaffee.net), December 26, 1999.