Here I am visiting another doom and gloom Y2K site. I must say that this one seems a little more lively than some (more refernces to UN stormtroopers and giant conspiracies).

Well we sit on the verge of the year 2000, all the predictions thus far have proven false. There has been no stock market crash, no food shortages, no computer problems that will shut down society have reared there head (which you would have begun to see long ago). I've noticed good old Gary is now touting that the problems will most likely not be noticed right away, but will grow in the coming months (probably wants to pick up a few more subscription bucks before the whole thing blows over completely).

I love a good conspiracy story as much as the next guy, and that is what Y2K is. Take a little fact, a lot of B.S., and a dash of end of the world tales and you've got a great recipe for for the Y2K phenom. Have you ever heard it said, "follow the money trail." Doesn't it strike you odd that the same people who have preached the coming doom of Y2K have all attempt to cash in with books, newsletters, consulting and guest appearences as so called "experts?" Seems kinda like a conflict of interest to me... the more I make outrageous claims and scare people the more interest I'll generate and the more stuff I can sell.

This leads to my questions which are really three questions

1. What will all of you people who actually believe this worldwide shutdown hoopla do after January 1st when it becomes apparent to even the staunchest survivalists that this was one of the biggest and best scams of the century?

2. Will you at all be embaressed by how easily you got drawn into the scare or scam?

3. Will there be a wave of denial after Y2K? I mean nobody will claim that those 200 boxes of freeze dried food in the basement were for Y2K, "just preparing for the bad storms we get". It is interesting, a lot of former Y2K cult members are all ready jumping ship and the denial is all ready begining. You can't find too many people who will admit those 5 skids worth of MRE's were ever bought with Y2K in mind... they just don't trust the weather ;)

I do want to say the thing I will miss most about 1999 is the gaint laugh this whole thing has give me! One more question... what is the best Y2K stockpiling (hoarding) rationilization that you have ever heard? - - - The one that has given me the best laugh is; "You buy fire and life insurance don't you?" That one gets me everytime!

Happy holidays and have a great 2000 Stefan

-- Stefan (orenford@ameritech.net), December 23, 1999

Answers

First of all, I will NOT deny that I made preparations for y2k, nor will I be embarrassed. I don't feel taken in at all. After much research, I made a decision to prepare for our family based on the information (or lack of) available.

If y2k turns out to be a non-event, I will get on my knees and thank God. First of all for showing me the need to always be prepared and giving me the ability to follow through. Secondly, I will thank Him that I learned so much about the world around me and how fragile society really is. I will never go back to the "fairy-tale" that I lived before.

Also, I will go forward with excitement in looking for a newer home. Our family has outgrown the one we have and it would be a treat for us all!!

-- Kimberly Hott (k_hott@urec.net), December 23, 1999.

Stefan: if one follows the big money, one would notice that our government has spent billions, banks have spent billions, insurance companies and big business have spent billions on y2k remediation and contingency plans...why then do you think nothing will happen? Do you think these organizations are spending just for the heck of it? And what makes you think that all their remediation will be finished and tested and implimented ON TIME and on budget when rarely in the history of our country has any computer project finished on time and on budget. And you don't excpect problems? Well, you ARE one of the problems, and now our tax dollars are going to have to take care of you and your family because you did not buy YOUR INSURANCE. But, don't go out now and buy any extra food and batteries; that would add to the problem. It is too late for people like you to buy. You have been aware of the possible consequences and you have chosen to do nothing, so leave the extra food for someone who is just now realizing the problem. Marcie

-- Marcie (clark@charm.net), December 23, 1999.

Stefan,

I can only assume from your post that you are about 16 years old and have never gone through a period of stress in your life any greater than worrying about how you'll get rid of those pesky zits before prom night.

Always assume that everything will be working just right in your life, that your toilet will flush, that your lamp will come on when you touch the switch, that food will be there in the market anytime you want. Never believe that anything could disrupt your comfortable existence. Always hold high trust in the thousands of invisible workers who make it possible for you to live a sheltered life, a life that allows you to surf the net, looking for Y2K sites to ridicule. May you always have so much free time on your hands. And may you never have to rely on any form of insurance -- ever.

-- (Ignore@reality.com), December 23, 1999.

Stefan,

I heard you are not as dumb as you look.

but I must refute that report!

why don't you venture over to the other forum where all of the information exists, instead of hiding over here???

The dress shop called they need your measurements.

-- d----- (dciinc@aol.com), December 23, 1999.

Stefan, you are obviously a liberal idiot. Y2K is no scam I think you are crowing a bit too early. Come back here and crow Jan 2nd. Except you wont be able to since the internet will be down and you will be freezing your butt off due to power failures and starving and trying to avoid mobs of looters and cannibals.

Then our King Mr. Clinton will send in the troops and you no doubt will be so happy that the governemnt is "helping" your miserable little life and you won't mind living under the New World Order dictatorship that is coming for all to see. You laugh now but wont be laughing when UN troops are taking your weapons and raping your wife and violating all norms of civilized behavior as Clinton grabs power for the liberal and NWO conspiracy.

You have got another week Stefan. Better enjoy it. Two weeks from now youll be in a concentration camp providing special services for some African UN solider named HoogaBooga and you'll wish you had a big enough brain to arm and prepare.

-- NoWay@NoSpam.com (BillSha2@aol.com), December 23, 1999.

I too hope and (seriously) pray that your prognosis is correct, Stefan.

I do not find it comforting that you and those of similar ilk keep harping on the (evil) profit motive of the y2k information distributors. The anti-business anti-profit anti-capitalist language strikes me as part and parcel to the one-world mindset...government can do no wrong and anyone pointing out the cracks in the status quo is evil and should be castigated.

Your trust is not in God. Your trust is in your intelligence (if any there be): but you think that your intelligence is wisdom. The beginning of wisdom is the fear of God.

I have been wrong many times in my life. Don't like it but don't mind admitting it either. Again, hope I'm wrong this time too. Would like to continue raising my babies and kissing my wife in warmth and comfort. But to believe that NOTHING can disrupt my life, and to gloat to others that I know better than they and that their personal preparations are insane and foolish...this is not wisdom. It is self evident: Your purpose is to belittle. Your pride exceeds even your foolishness. Go back to sleep. When you wake, God himself will discuss your life, personally, with you.

May the blood of Jesus Christ be recognized by you for what it is: Your salvation. He is the rock upon which we trust. NOT this world based upon sand, silicon sand perhaps, but sand nonetheless.

Vito

-- Vito Barbieri (BArbieriV@aol.com), December 23, 1999.

I read an article by Lane Core Jr in which he proposed the situation that not much happens in January, most doomers get laughed at, and then they start eating their preps or give them away and then by mid-year serious shortages start showing up. In this situation the doomers get burned twice ( they received extreme ridicule for preparing, then receive even more extreme ridicule when nothing happens post-rollover, then having eliminated their preps, start suffering from shortages like everyone else ).

Actually that seems more like three times burned.

Folks, don't foul up now, please hang onto preps thru the new year, you don't have to buy one more damn thing, just use from your stash and replace.

As for being foolish, I'd rather be a fool who bought stuff he didn't need than be a fool who didn't buy stuff he should have.

-- Stanley Lucas (StanleyLucas@WebTv.net), December 23, 1999.

Wow, some of you lost touch with reality a looooong time ago.

I must respond to some who seem to think this is some kind of liberal/conservative thing. It isn't. How some of you can even think that this has anything to do with those affiliations blows my mind. I am actually a very conservative licensed firearm dealer and avowed Clinton hater. I have also refused to sell firearms to people that were attempting to purchase them solely for Y2K preperations... that is all the pro-gun movement needs is a bunch of inexperienced, scared, survivalist wanna-bes out there. Heck, could you imagine if the power did go out for a bit in one area? You'd have Wild Bill blasting at anything that moved, just positive it was a hungry mob looking for his MRE's. The Clinton would have little problem collecting our guns after that fiasco.

We have enough problems in this world without trying to invent more. Hey, I've eaten my share of MRE's, and if you really like them there is no problem with buying skids of them... when Y2K flops you enjoy them to your hearts delight. Better you than me!

You won't like this, but I'm very thankful that most of the people you tried to convert to end of the worlders just laughed at you. It was a non problem to begin with, could you imagine the real problems you could have caused if your panic took off.

I also wanted to respond quickly to one post that brought up the problem is real because so much money was spent on it by government and industry. I should just leave it at the above statement, because that one sentance answers it all but I will try and give a brief and easy explanation on the sequence of events:

1. Late 70's early 80's a few computer insiders ponder the effects of 00 down the road.

2. Nothing for years.

3. Mid 1990's... the internet and web take off.

4. Around the same time a few "experts" begin to use the web to predict the end of the world with 00 (do I really need to name names).

5. The "experts" begin to gather a cult following. The facts twisted, the truth mangled. Let's mix religion into the fray to make it even more mixed up... forget the fact the Christ never follwed the Julian calander and his year 2000 was a couple of years ago.

6. By late 1997 the myth of Y2K had grown so big on the net, the rumors so wild that it begin to spread into the main stream. Companies and governemts began to ask the... what ifs? Then the billions flow, tear this apart... test this.. etc. etc. Billions are a blink of the eye when you are talking thousands of companies testing systems. Guess what, a lot of these industries have been working with the year 2000 for quite a while. Problems exsisted and were fixed, might there be some glitches...sure. Will you need that Bushmaster Shorty AR15 with the muzzle break and 5000 rounds to to protect you when the grocery store automatic doors won't open correctly? No.

7. 1998 and most of 1999, a real hay day for the "experts." They all have something to sell, it's scary and designed to bring more people on board. Freeze dried foods and solar powered (fill in the blank) is the hot item, rational thought is thrown out.

8. Late 1999, the predictions begin to fall apart. There have been no massive computer failures that would precipitate 2000, no panics in the street, no food shortages, the stock market just hit a record high.

9. Late December 1999 all but the most fanatic... i.e. New World Order people, conspiracy nuts, religious nuts or those that believe the moon landing was actually filmed in a studio in Texas begin to distance themselves. Denial sets in.

It is truly funny that by the sound of most of the posts I've seen here some of you are so deluded that come July 2000 and nothing has happened, you'll still be preaching the the delayed end of the world via Y2K. Mankind has faults, but you'd be very niave to write him off so easily. It seems a little frightening that some of you almost seemed disappointed that this is trying out to be a hoax. Were some of you actually craving the end of society?

I don't want to make this too long so for know I'll skip the the faults of the better to be prepared and insurance arguements.

Happy Holidays once again...

Stefan

-- Stefan (orenford@ameritech.net), December 24, 1999.

Greetings from one Stefan to another!

First, for the record let me say that I have never earned one penny of money off of anything even remotely related to Y2K. I also do not have any MREs in the basement, and extremely little, if any, freeze- dried stuff. I do have a well-stocked pantry. Always have, always will. We live in a small town in a semi-rural area, and that is just our lifestyle. We have a wood stove and a couple cords of wood put up, some oil lamps and candles, a coleman stove and fuel, a first aid kit, flashlight/radio/batteries -- all the usual stuff to cope with a multi-day ice storm (which we HAVE had before, WILL have again, and CAN shut down everything here in the mountains).

I have always been on record in everything I have said on the net and in public fora that I am a moderate on the Y2K stuff. I know that a lot of hard work by competent people has been applied to the problem, and that there will be substantial success prior to 1/1/2000. Having been peripherally associated on the management side with major IT projects in the past, I have also been aware that projects DO have a way of ending up past deadline, over budget, and quite buggy. So, I have maintained a healthy amount of scepticism to counterbalance what I perceived to be incredibly naive optimism on the part of "official spokespersons" and an unusually out-of-character non-adversarial press. I do NOT expect Y2K to be the end of the world. I do NOT even expect all that much to happen 1/1/2000. I do expect that more than a few messes will crop up in the days, weeks, and months following 1/1/2000. A significant portion of those messes will not be due to the Y2K problem itself, but rather to repairs and replacements rushed into service to "fix" the Y2K problem with inadequate development and testing effort. Thus, I predict that you will be right: we will hear of very few systems disruptions due to "Y2K". However, I also predict that we will be amazed at the number of disruptions that occur IN the year 2000!

Everything above refers to the good old USA, as does your original comments. Overseas is another matter altogether. There are very reliable reports and analyses from multiple governmental sources which indicates that many of our important trading partners may experience significant Y2K-related disruptions. They got a latter start on remediation than we did, and don't have the resources that we have to throw at the problem, so it is inevitable that many of them won't get the job done in time. This won't impact your typical subsistence farmer in a mud hut besides a dirt road, but it will impact their export industries and the supporting transport/communication/financial infrastructure. This will not impact us on Jan 1st. Indeed, given the usual lack of international news coverage here, you are unlikely to hear about 99% of whatever problems will be experienced overseas on Jan 1st or thereafter. But we will eventually see the impact as some of our imports are disrupted. Oil is the big one -- think replay of 73/94 Arab oil embargo -- but this time around we will be looking at other stuff at well. We'll survive, but it is not correct to say that it will be "nothing". I know people whose plants or mills closed in the wake of the 70s energy crisis who are still alive, but to this day are not making as good a living as they used to. There will be losers when all is said and done.

Enjoy your holiday.

Stefan Stackhouse

-- Stefan Stackhouse (stefans@mindspring.com), December 24, 1999.

Stefan's chronology makes a lot of sense, if you're on the outside looking in. Computer folks clearly failed to show the layperson what the problems were and how they could affect us all. Being on the inside, looking out at Stefan, it's like watching The Gods Must Be Crazy, where the non-tech aboriginal thinks a Coke bottle is some kind of sign from God. He can't understand it, so he makes up a story to explain it. It doesn't mean he's stupid, he just has a different background.

Thanks for your input Stefan, you probably did good keeping firearms out of the hands of idiots. Sorry that you weren't able to see the problem, and I hope it works out ok for you.

Our preps are good for y2k or earthquakes, and we're overdue for a 9, so preparedness feels pretty good out here.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), December 24, 1999.

You in your cockiness remind me of those on the Titanic who said "No Problem! Full speed ahead!". Those of us who have prepared will look out sadly at the struggles of those who didn't.

-- John Littmann (JTL9700@JUNO.COM), December 24, 1999.

OK... Here's a word from a former, current and (hopefully) future programmer who has been in the thick of this mess for the last two + years.

First of all, to say that the whole thing was a lot of "hype" is pure crap. When I began working on the project, the systems at the bank that I work at were run through a "mock 2000" run. You wouldn't believe the problems. In the most mild cases, the transaction dates on statements were inaccurate or sorted incorrectly. In the worst cases, accounts were purged from our files or the systems just "blew up" (the program died - kind of like windows shutting down on you) and could not be restarted. Anyway, suffice to say - there WERE problems and left unattended, the "hype" would have left us in pretty bad shape.

Over the last two years we have upgraded, tested, re-upgraded, retested, etc. so much that I am sick and tired of the whole mess. But, I can tell you that our systems are in great shape. I can assure you that without the money and time that was invested in this we would be hurting. So when this thing (hopefully) blows over - it doesn't mean that it was all a bunch of hype that was overblown. It means that a genuine problem was recognized and appropriately attended to by a lot of people. If the vast amount of attention aided in that regard - then great.

All of that being said though I am still only cautiously optimistic (with the emphasis on cautiously). That is, it has recently been my misfortune to have my organization purchased by another. As I hear more and more about their Y2K preparations (or lack thereof) it makes me VERY nervous. For example, they are running versions of software that I know to be non-Y2K compliant (via my own testing at my bank). Now, maybe they have manually corrected all of the problems themselves - maybe not.... regardless it's a little too late for them to start now.

I guess the bottom line is - I think a lot of organiztions have put in a lot of excellent effort to get their systems up to snuff. But, their sure are a lot of different organizations out there.... If there were breakdowns in even a small percentage of those companies I have to wonder what kind of domino effect that may cause. For example, even though my bank's software works - it won't work too great without power; or, you may have difficulty getting money from the ATM without phone lines.

Oh well, I'll be babysitting in the computer room on December 31.... but if the lights go out - I'm going home.

Good luck guys!

-- Will See (holdmybreath@jump.com), December 24, 1999.

If nothing comes of Y2K, I will donate SOME of my goods to a Food Pantry, for folks who are cold hungry and homeless even when the electricity IS working. The rest will be for a fun camping trip for my family. So what have I lost???? Pride cometh before the fall....and I'm an atheist.

-- Jamie (Jamie42861@aol.com), December 25, 1999.

Those of us who have prepared will always have one precious knowledge in our memories in later years. We will know that we tried, the best we were able, given the information and resources available to us - to nourish and shelter ourselves and our families. No one can ever do more.

-- Jim Young (jyoung@famvid.com), December 25, 1999.

Hi Stefan. Your hiding your head in the sand. Here in Egypt we found many problems while testing in both government and private sectors. The alarming thing that sme know that they many problems but there is no time or money to solve them. Suez canal declared yesterday that it is reusing its manual systems because there is no time left to implement or test complaint systems. International bussiness is very inerconnected and you can figure out the rest for yourself.

happy holidays

-- Sherine from Egypt (sherine_200@yahoo.com), December 26, 1999.

Stephan,

Facts are Facts.

*Some Software will break. *Terrorists are on the prowl. *Cyper_punks are on full swing with distributing Y2K viruses for your disk and server crashing pleasure.

You must have a direct line with God to know just how much will and won't happen... and to know just how fast we all can fix it for you... wish i did!? ;)

-- KaliHE (KaliHE@hotmail.com), December 26, 1999.

Terrorists are always on the prowl. Cyber Punks are alwas creating new and distributing a deadly new virus.

You are all getting a little carried away. Calm down and crack open a can of SPAM. I'm actually one of the few who do not claim do have a direct line with GOD or a secret understanding of the bible.

I know this is all exciting for some of you. There will be some problems, glitches and the ilk... but your pathetic (hate to say it but for most of you it is true) lives will continue very much the same way they are now and you can each plan for the next end of the world. I beg some of you to make sure you do not have mental breaks on Jan. 1st and end up using your weapon stocks to blow away any party goers who happen to flow onto the street. I can just see your defense now, "Your honor, they were attacking my non-hybrid seed stocks... I had no choice."

-- Stefan (orenford@ameritech.net), December 26, 1999.

Cyber_punks, viruses are always on the prowl etc...

Hi Stefan,

Ya they are pretty much always around, but what has led us to these interesting times ahead, are that this all is happening at once, and exponentiated, pretty much without precedence... sort of like a web curse - may your web site be met with unexpected success... basically a crash and burn your server wish...?

Personally, I am looking forward to the end of this brief Y2K era, as are most of my esteemed collegues... so we can get on to better, far more interesting things. And the last thing I enjoy doing is organizing my basement with extra water and and medical supplies, some extra food, matches, batteries, and a little cash, just in case the storm lasts longer than expected. Yuck!!

And am VERY much hopeing we can zoom in, faster than a speeding bullet, like superman, Fixing all the Bugs/viruses that pop up and newly introduced bugs caused by the Y2K fixes, ...fix everything in the flash of an eye with no reprocussions what so ever... not likely but it's a terrific goal.

Deny it all you want, regardless of your denial, the storm is comming. Expect the unexpected. Certainly remain calm and watch history unfold. We will be writing history whatever it may be, i am somewhat amused, myself, to be in the middle of it. ;)

-- KaliHE (KaliHE@hotmail.com), December 26, 1999.

Hi Stefan,

Sounds like you're psychologically set for business as usual in 2000. I too, and prepared for that and would be ecstatic if that were to occur. I'm also prepared, both psychologically and with preparations, for situations that are less than all roses to occur. Whether you are or are not prepared is your choice. In answer to your initial questions:

1. At work, fixing problems that were missed (our IT department has been primarily focused on this "biggest and best scams of the century" for years now.) Even software vendors are changing the previously compliant version to non-compliant daily.

2. Absolutely no embarassment - since there's no scare or scam, only real live problems. Have already had to deal with massive data corruption due to this "biggest and best scams..." - but our company would never admit that openly. (small company ... $10-20 billion/yr)

3. I don't believe you'll find denial from the preppers' camps. Personally, I've never felt more in control of my life than now. I could never go back to the same lifestyle I had prior to GI. So, in answer to "Will there be a wave of denial after Y2K? " the answer is "quite possibly" ...but any denial that occurs likely won't be coming from GI's.

I've worked long enough in IT to understand systemic problems with applications, hardware, etc. Computers are far from infallible, as are the people who operate them (myself included.) It might be very difficult for you to understand computer problems that have been a fact of many of our working lives for years.

Likewise, happy holidays and I do hope 2000 is good to you.

-- Ford Prefect (bring@your.towel), December 26, 1999.

Stefan, it would appear that having failed to get the reaction you seem to want by using your rather unfounded arguments, you resort to such rude bullshit as:

No matter how uninformed some of us, and possibly you, I would never say that we, or you, have "pathetic" lives.

I personally have based my preparations on my research of many different data bases. I'd love to believe, as you profess to believe, that it's all a bunch of bunk. I did believe that, at first. But after reading all the government data, all the data put out by the power companies, pipeline companies, communications companies, universities, and others, I decided that it's certainly not a bunch of bunk. Certainly there are a lot of bullshit slingers (Gary North perhaps fits this bill), but these guys actually are a part of the problem. Lots of people are so turned off by these fools that they think the whole y2k concern is stupid, just because there are lots of idiots saying that it's going to be TEOTWAWKI. It's a shame, but it's true.

As for you, I suggest you quit whistling past the graveyard, and do at least a modicum of preparations. It isn't all that hard to do, and it's not even necessary to buy anything you won't use later anyway.

What's wrong with the life insurance analogy? I don't expect my house to EVER burn down, but I still shell out over $400 per year, just in case. That's a lot of moolah, which is all a total loss, in comparison to the food I have bought. And it's not MREs. Yuch. I only bought stuff we eat anyway. If you want to hear what foods I've bought that taste GREAT and have a long shelf life, let me know your real email address, and I'll send you a list. I don't use my real name, because when I did, a year or so ago, I started receiving lots of junk email. No more.

ALK

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), December 28, 1999.