A prediction for the December 28th (FWIW)greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
With 8 days to go, I thought I would go ahead and make a prediction. I was thinking about the hearsay thread on this board concerning the bank teller who said she was ready for the 28th. Along with that thread, we have all seen the scuttle that something is going to happen on the 28th.
Some folks believe that Clinton will declare a state of emergency in each State and deploy the military. I dont believe that. Heres why. Clinton is really only interested in the one legacy he has left: a booming economy. I dont believe his secret motive is to be a dictator under martial law. Additionally, all we have heard from TPTB is that the only real danger is public panic. The NUMBER ONE FEAR that Clinton, Kosky, Greenspan and all the rest have is that the public will panic. Specifically, the biggest fear of all is a bank run in the last days of 1999.
The White House is working under the assumption that Y2K will be a BITR. They have to work under that assumption because they waited to long. Any action they take to address serious Y2K problems will be reactive versus proactive. Any pre-rollover action they take will address their biggest fear. Deploying the military before the roll-over does nothing to address a bank run. Further, if Y2K ends up being a BITR, deploying the military will only given credence to Clintons biggest critics.
Only one action would address a bank run: Close the banks from the 29th through the 31st by declaring a bank holiday. In order to do that, Clinton would need to declare a state of emergency.
Lets look at what we have heard in recent months:
- "Y2K will be BITR if anything." The bottom line is that if Y2K is more than a BITR, it wont matter if they closed the banks in the final week of 1999.
- "The biggest thing we have to fear is public panic." If Y2K truly is a BITR, then this is true. As I said, the WH is working under the assumption that Y2K is BITR.
- Recently, FEMA and Kosky have said that we should prepare early. However, they know that most Americans will wait until the very last minute.
- For months we have heard that we should prepare for a 3 day storm or a long weekend. I have never been able to reconcile this advice with the possible post roll-over scenarios. If Y2K is BITR, then preps arent necessary. If Y2K is more than BITR, three days supplies will do little good and no one believes that anything would be fixed in three days. The only rational I could come up with was that recommending any more than 3 days would harm the economy (but even that justification never seemed adequate.)
Most everyone assumed that the 3 day storm Kosky talked about was from January 1 through January 3. But what if he is REALLY talking about the three days from December 29 through December 31.
Here is how it might go down. On the evening of Tuesday, December 28, Clinton addresses the nation. It will be after the banks and markets have closed. He tells us that while Y2K with be nothing, a bank run in the next three days could destroy the economy. Everyone would be hurt by that and all for nothing because nothing is going to happen due to Y2K. So, he will declare a state of emergency and declare a 3 day bank holiday starting on Wednesday, December 29.
He will tell us that on Saturday when we all see that Y2K is nothing, we can lift the state of emergency and the economy will have been saved.
What about credit cards and ATM cards? I dont think these will be affected. What TPTB are concerned about are large withdrawals or transactions out of bank cash into hard currency or some other instrument. In order to perform the kinds of transactions that could lead to a bank run, the banks have to be open. Additionally, while there may be runs on ATMs come late Tuesday night, the banks control the amount of money available. It is a known amount. Besides, ATMs usually have daily limits of a few hundred dollars. Someone with $50,000 in the bank would only be able to $900 to $1200 over three days depending on the limit no big deal.
You might ask what if Y2K is more than a BITR? Well, if it is, it wont have mattered that the banks were closed. For Clinton, it is win/win.
So, there it is. The only prediction I have ever made concerning Y2K. Flame away.
BTW, I believe Y2K is going to be more than a BITR. Therefore, I believe that ultimately the administrations plan is inherently flawed. However, I understand that given the late date, they have to make a bet. I think they bet wrong.
-- no (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 23, 1999
"The White House is working under the assumption that Y2K will be a BITR. They have to work under that assumption because they waited to long. "
Have you considered inept?
-- goldbug (email@example.com), December 23, 1999.
One possible reason for declaring "fill in the name here" (it won't be called martial law) on or near December 28 would be the shut down of nuclear reactors.
There has been much discussion regarding the 'cooling time' (or whatever) required to safely shut down such a facility. From what I have been able to gather, while several months of cooling may be required, it is the first 48 hours when things could get critical.
A prudent move might be to shut down the nukes at least 48 hours before the rollover. The order could go out by 8 pm on December 28. This would provide the 48 hours of 'guaranteed' outside power to complete the critical initial cooldown of the core/rods.
Prior to shutting 'em down, Clinton would make an appearance and say whatever he wants to. It's terrorists, for safety, whatever. This action, shutting down the nukes, might cause a general panic/stampede. So, in addition to the nukes being closed, the market, banks, etc. (add what you will) are also closing. Everyone will be asked to stay home.
I believe this is likely only if the assessment reported to be from "Mr. CEO" is accurate and TPTB are aware of it (and I believe both are true).
At any rate, we don't need to wait long to find out.
-- Me (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 23, 1999.
We are living since years under a declared state of emergency,
Klingon does NOT need to declare a new one he can basicly do what he wants.
Why do you think the "terrorist" dread is played up so much?
We are under a declared state of emergency for terrorist attacks.
He knows that declaring any NEW states of emergency esp for Y2k would
get him nowhere and would possible even be counter productive with the masses really going.
He has everything he needs in place since a long time... and the
media is helping him to spin it just right to the right point in time.
-- RickJohn (email@example.com), December 23, 1999.
"No" -- good analysis!
I agree with most of your points, but I'm not discounting a huge market drop (engineered or not, for you conspiracy theorists
) that will be the primary "public" cause for the Prez to do what he has to do legally to ultimately declare a bank holiday. I admit that I'm a little fuzzy as to the steps he has to go through -- I know that he just can't declare one -- but ExecutiveOrders have paved the way for him to have a lot of power. FWIW,I don't look for a major drop before Christmas.
Flame away if you want to, but I'll be offline watching the water disappear at the local stores -- Deb M.'s observations are right on!
-- (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 23, 1999.
--no, Yours is a very well thought out and quite plausible scenerio. Makes a whole lot of sense IMHO.And it doesn't even contradict the replies from "Me", "goldbug", or "ladybuckeye".All three of those fit in to make your theory even more likely.We shall all soon see!
on de rock
-- Walter (on de email@example.com), December 23, 1999.
I was thinking bank holiday, too. Pre-emptive...
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 23, 1999.
Hmmm..what happens the next day after a bank holiday, another bank holiday?
-- ~~~~~ (~~~@~~~.xcom), December 23, 1999.
Couldn't it be that the teller was referring to some sort of in house memo? Or even a memo from TPTB at the federal reserve?Something like, "from surveys we have learned that Americans plan take out an average of $2K just before the rollover. We are advising all banks to be prepared for greater than normal customer visits from the 28th through the 31st, yadda, yadda, yadda..."
If this was the case, the local bank honchos would call everyone into a meeting and say, "guess what, we're going to have to schedule more of you tellers for those days, and some of you lower level managers will probably have to pitch in." Knowing corporate American, this sounds logical. The idea of keeping a pre-planned bank holiday quiet for this long sounds implausible to me. If bank tellers knew about it, how long do you think it would be until their families and friends knew it, and so on?< /p>
-- CD (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 23, 1999.