***Grace Period Before the Grip Tightens***greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I have done a lot of thinking on this topic and just to put my thoughts up for some constructive criticism here. The topic is on the possibility of "community lock-down", i.e. Martial Law, Exec. Order or whatever you prefer.
I have planned for just about all possible scenarios. Including a "lock down" in my community. My plans eventually include getting the heck out for safer retreat if this occurs.
I have factored in that my community will be primarily "reactionary" in any plans to do this and given an emergency. Extra Police will be deployed beginning 5pm on the 31st (already public with this info). I have studied all other possibilities but the only one which demands my attention is the Police response. NG deployment in my community is a slight possibility but I see no preps for this at this time. In fact, equip has been pulled to an unknown location, possibly larger neighboring metro area 45 minutes out.
Anyway, I factor that I SHOULD have a grace period before full lockdown can be effectively employed. Time from a major event to full lockdown would be probably 30 minutes to 1 hour. We have ONLY 4 points to exit our community and get to an interstate. Last years floods eliminated 3 of these so I am fully aware of how quickly we can be shut in, or others out.
Question is, how do you see it given this info ? Is 30 minutes reasonable to plan ? Also, have you looked at your scenarios and analyzed a possible play-by-play for your plans ? How quickly do you think they can mobilize and correlate an effective, 100% shut-down of the streets given they have planned for one if necessary ? I know it will be drastically different for each community.
If I stay on top of local events, I can get out before a full effectual lock-in occurs. But after that first 30 minutes I will be in deep poop. Just thinking (and thinking and thinking).
-- Rob (email@example.com), December 22, 1999
if you leave your home it will be ransacked!
-- ... (...@...com), December 22, 1999.
I don't have a safer-retreat, bug-out, fall-back location.
If I DID, I'd sure as hell BE there already when the 31st rolled around. Probably as early as the 28th.
What on earth are you waiting for?
If things don't get ugly, you simply return. What's all this agonizing? If you don't feel safe where you are, vamoose.
-- head em up (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 22, 1999.
Yes, but my family is more important than the goods.
-- Rob (email@example.com), December 22, 1999.
Rob, real simple, enjoy the heck out of the holidays with your family and friends through the 25th, say your goodbyes and wish everyone the best, and "BUG OUT" shortly thereafter. The writing is on the wall, read it and weep. Things are going to get unusual very shortly after that. Good luck dude!!!! (and obviously, any ladies, too!!)
-- Michael (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 22, 1999.
Thanks Michael, but can't quite yet.
And to "DUH", I guess I simply overlooked the obvious. Man. With all due respect DUH, I just can't do that as I'm not just by myself. Son is mandated to work until midnight that night. Other family members in the same boat. I can't just leave and forget I have family before the fact so I have to consider more of a reactionary plan to events as they may unfold. So, in effect, the upfront consideration of scooting before zero hour is out of the picture. Most others in the family are DWGI and I and my brother are the most qualified to mop up after the fact. Sad but oh well.
Anyway, thanks again Michael and to DUH, you shouldn't make assumptions in such haste. Makes ya look kinda, DUH ? (All in fun though, huh DUH ? ) LOL
-- Rob (email@example.com), December 22, 1999.
I think that allowing yourself only a 30 minute window is cutting things awfully close. Have you forgotten that a Martial Law decree would more than likely "lockdown" the Interstate highways as well? Even if you could access the highway, you might not have enough time to reach your destination before the barricades and road blocks appeared.
BTW...I'm not speaking for or against bugging out. That decision must rest with each individual and be based on the situational realities and concerns of that person. Me? I'm staying put, only because my health is shaky and I would have to leave too much good stuff behind.
Keep thinking. Good Luck!
-- Irving (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 22, 1999.
If you haven't left by now to a safer haven, it's too late. Better hunker down, and stay put. There will be a mad exodus out of the city and you don't want to get caught in it. But I would like to know where are all those people going to run to? Get plywood board up your home except for two exists in case of fire and hope for the best. My play-by-play scenario will be to hunker down and defend our home. Your safer at home than on the road.
-- bardou (email@example.com), December 22, 1999.
I think you're all flipping out big time. Even in the event of martial law I would presume the biggest restriction to anybody's travel plans would be a curfew. You can't just ban travel to and from cities arbitrarily, it would force the country to a grinding halt and they know this. Forcing everyone to "just stay put" would be worse than any Y2K bug imaginable, even for as little as 48 hours. People need to work, and they need to GET to work. People will be stuck on the roads during the post vacation days and they'll need to get home. You really think the army or NG is going to put a blockade up on I95 and tell everyone heading southbound or northbound to just turn around and go back the way they came? Think of the logistics! Think of the traffic snarls!! Like I said this would only complicate the situation ten times worse than it is, and it's just *not* going to happen. Even during the LA Rodney King riots they had only set a curfew, and had NG escorts for the emergancy vehicles.
Just imagine trying to force one of the most heavily armed countries in the world to go home and sit tight on New Years Eve of the New Millenium (*)!!! It's just so unimaginable in terms of manpower, energy and finances that it's a wonder how this subject has ever gotten so misconstrued.
(*) Of course it's not the new millennium but that's what the ads all say so that's what the partying will be for.
-- (don't@believe. the hype), December 22, 1999.
See my post "Decisions" on the old posts on the Survivalist thread.
It will be 8 am Eastern, 5 am Pacific when it is Midnight in Sydney, Australia. Monitor the news coming out as Midnight marches around the globe. If Tokyo has terror or Hong Kong is in havoc, have your kids drop their tools and run like mad. By 1 pm Pacific time, New Years will have passed the India/Pakistan border, the Holy Land, and the Russian nuclear reactors.
I belong to the "Hunker Down" crowd. Unless you have a wonderful place at least 20 miles from an Interstate and 100 miles from a large city, stay home.
Most of the senarios of Survivalist fiction is based on husbands trying to find wives or families trying to get back together after TSHTF.
-- gov comm (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 22, 1999.
1) If you are planning on getting out, and have a place to go to, be SURE that you can do this without the use of an interstate!!
2) 30 minutes may be a LOT MORE time than you have. Mrs. D and I have SUE's (see Greybear's posts undewr Bug Out Bags) on our own cars. As we are going to a NYE party come H**L or High Water, we will have the 870, the BOB's (both of them) in the car we use to ge to the party. MY prayer is that if the Interstates are locked down, they at least let us into town long enough to grab and toss the cats into the car so we can hit the back roads out to site B. I REFUSE to leave them in the house to starve/be tormented by looters. If I don't have the time then they go down. snap snap snap. NO choice. 'Course I will have to drive through the tears but that's because I'm WAY too sentimental and they have been part of the family for 10 years.
3 Spend some time this week LOOKING for the back way out and the back way to your bug-out site. I will TRY to hunker but that may not be an option.
4 As to the "realization" that the interstates can't be closed down. DON'T kid yourself. CIVILIAN and NON-COMMERCIAL traffic can be tossed off Interstates at WILL. (They ARE Federal Highways, remember).
-- Chuck, a night driver (email@example.com), December 22, 1999.
Given the scenario of curfew and controlled access to the Interstate Highways, if only military and commercial transportation is allowed on the Interstates does that mean that the access roads will be closed to civilian use also? Or would civilians be allowed to use the access roads for local traffic?
-- snooze button (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 22, 1999.
We're right off of A1A. If we can't use A1A, all we can do is walk along the beach...that's it. On the other hand, it will be nice to feel that no one can come HERE.
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 22, 1999.
I think when the panic hits small cities and rural towns will close themselves off from interstate access so they don't get swamped refugees. The trick probably won't be getting on the interstate, but rather getting off it when you what to.
BTW I think we'll see hoards people trying to drive INTO big cities to go looting, or watch to the places go up in firestorms. Don't think people are stupid enough to do this? Well, they've done it in other disasters.
-- Ocotillo (peeling@out.===), December 23, 1999.
Bad boyz, bad boyz, watcha gonna do when they come for you?
-- (email@example.com), December 23, 1999.
I know we are staying put! We have got no where else to go! Why should we go somewhere where we are exposed to every "bug" & whim that comes down the pike!!!!!NO THANK YOU! IM SAFER,WARM,FED & WELL AT HOME!! I can stay as long as no one breaks in, then they'll have a couple of serious problems...me,my wolf-dog,family & 'friends'... (as long as the "officials" dont "break IN" we are not 'GOING OUT")
-- feather (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 23, 1999.
don't believe is an example of someone who doesn't think thing through. The interstate highway system has always been -- from it's inception -- a system that can be used by military/government forces. In the event of severe y2k problem or in case of simultaneous terrorist attacks a lockdown of the interstates serves several valid purposes.
First it keeps the urban population in urban areas. Important because you don't want the inhabitants of a large city spreading out into the countryside. Does closing off the interstates do this? No, but it shuts down the immediate and quick routes. This also confines any terrorists and prevents quick get-a-way.
Second a confined population can be more easily cared for (food and water distribution set up) than can a dispersed population.
Third in the event of terrorist action it's a lot easier to capture the perps if everyone is denied access to the interstates. They have to come out some how, and road blocks set up on secondary highways serve as filters.
Fourth it's fairly easy to set up a system where the ON ramps are denied......no one gets on......but the off ramps are left open for a while in order to allow people enroute to reach their destination. BTW, the assumption that millions of people will be struggling to reach home assumes that gasoline rationing has not been imposed. If I were considering a lock-down of this nature I'd also consider making it hard for people by setting up gas rationing. If you do this on the 28th or 29th, you avoid the panic effect from those who intend to 'top-off' on the 31st.
Fifth once the Interstate system has been partially cleared.....only a few hours after access is denied.....then the system can handle heavy military movements, including everything from relief columns in the event of carnage due to terrorism or severe y2k problems to troop transport to bring in population control, all without strain. If this lock-down is implemented before December 31, then by the rollover the highway system would be clear of civilian traffic, and any FEMA response is expedited.
Sixth if you are traveling to a large city, you can probably get in to it. Getting out would be the problem
Seventh Those mapping out routes that don't use Interstates may have topographical problems. Examples: going from NJ to PA there are only a few choices (called bridges across the Delaware river). The best of those choices are also interstate highways. Bummer. Likewise, how does one get from the Northern DC suburbs out into the Virginia countryside -- without crossing the Potomac near DC? NYC is an island, separated from the mainland by a bunch of tunnels and bridges.
Finally, expect the back roads to jam up in a few hours. It will take some time because most people will be like deer caught in headlights and will sit for a few hours scratching their butts. A few will be ready and will be able to get in their cars and go, ala Chuck and Mrs D. Those few will be able to leave.
Conclusion: can be done, might be done. Only those who are prepared will be able to take advantage of a brief period of time in which to 'escape.' They'd better know where they're going, and how they intend to get there -- and they had better have a good set of maps, because the journey probably won't be a piece of cake.
-- (email@example.com), December 23, 1999.