Ok, what if we have a Level 4 event and everybody stays home to take care of families?

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Since there is no real consensus of a level 1, 2, .. 10 event means, I'm wondering, suppose we're lucky and we end up with just a level 4 event (which to me means, no power for 5 days, no water and sewer for say 5-10 days, extensive problems with oil, and therefore transportation of food, etc. for 14 days due to industrial problems as well, a normal winter (i.e. its cold), and schools closed.

My guess is most people are going to stay at home to look after their own (as to me any situation where there is no power, heat, water, sewer for 5-10 days is serious to most people to make them adjust their priorities) and there will be less people actually doing any fixing. In this event I think the situation would escalate to a level 6-7 event (what ever that means). I think once we reach that threshold the event will take a life of its own as cascade effects of lack of people, failing systems cause a feed back loop to continue an escalation upto some stead state level at 8-9.

Also any speculation on how much the non-mission critical systems that have not been remediated are going to corrupt the "compliant" ones?

Comments?

-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 22, 1999

Answers

It could be that Y2K WOULD have been a 1 or 2, but some raghead wacko (waving a chicken's foot dipped in blood and screaming 'Death To Amelica') pops a backpack nuke at the Tiems Square bash. THEN everyone is surely too scared to go to work, especially in big cities.

Then you could have a similar escalation as FOF remediation doesn't happen, if it was possible in the first place.

Lotza things to go wrong. Mr. Murphy is a'fixin' to get his long deserved Nobel Prize.

Kook

-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), December 22, 1999.


Your description of a "level 4 event" roughly equates to what one gets from an -average- hurricane. Damage from a nasty hurricane like Andrew would probably fit, so check out what happened to the folks that lived through that, and extrapolate to planetwide.

It'd be -very- easy for a "4" to degrade to an Infomagic 10 if it's planetwide...

O d d O n e, who has always been ready to weather weeks of disruptions since he lives in the southeast... Think hurricanes again..

-- OddOne (mocklamer_1999@yahoo.com), December 22, 1999.


Spectator, I am fortunate enough to live near where I work, so I imagine I'd check in and do whatever I could at work (not much, without power) and secure whatever I could. I also have an alternate cache of preps. in the office. This is probably the exception, and I could see how things could degenerate, but it is all pure speculation. We'll see...

-- No Polly (nopolly@hotmail.com), December 22, 1999.

Spectator,

The lack of consensus is mostly a lack of awareness. The levels are well stated in the WDCY2K survey materials, have been stable for several years, and this is probably the most authoritative group for Y2k info. Unfortunately, they also have guest speakers like Kosky. Oh well.

Let's try to stay with what's already been defined, for consistency.

-- bw (home@puget.sound), December 22, 1999.


We have no worries folks. Midnight Dec.31 falls on Russia before it falls on the U.S.A. Should they have a malfunction an their nuclear weapons are launched. We will never see Dec.the 31, because most of their weapons are aimed at us. We will all be nuclear dust falling down on their heads, and then they also cease to exist. No problem

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 22, 1999.


We heard a female lieutenant in the National Guard on public radio a couple of days ago. She says the guard is gearing up for major riots, because "if some drunk hits a power pole and knocks out the power, or if everyone tries their phones at midnight and gets no dial tone everyone will panic, jump in their cars, and head for the hills".

After I finished laughing, I asked ms. ALK if she would panic and head for the hills if she couldn't get a dial tone at midnight. She said, helpfully, "no, we are already IN the hills.

Anybody else going to "run in circles, scream and shout" if they can't get a dial tone at midnight?

Personally, I'll be more interested in getting a kiss at midnight than a dial tone...

ALK

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), December 22, 1999.


Didn't an earlier article or story on London preps impy that becuase of the potential overload of circuits TPTB might drop access for emergency only communications. Any phone tech's have knowleadge of the potential work-arounds and cut-offs. If so that may explain the constant chatter on the "if everyong picks up there phone..." maybe its not the overloaded circuit maybe its TPTB cutting off service as a contingency plan.

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 22, 1999.

Notforlong, I *personally* don't worry about a nuclear launch, because in order for that to occur the launcher would have to malfunction, but the arming device, guidance system, etc. would all need to function to make things go boom. Anyway, seriously doubt it will happen.

Hopefully,

Frank

-- Someone (ChimingIn@twocents.com), December 22, 1999.


yah. we always panic when we don't hear a dial tone. sounds like total BS to me... who knows, maybe the national guard person has been snowed too!! i totally expect to NOT be working for at least a week depending on how ready the high-rises are!!!!! there are sooooooooo many variables that have to be successful in order for us to go to work?!!

-- tt (cuddluppy@nowhere.com), December 22, 1999.

IS:

You have touched on a major point here. The most overlooked item in contingency planning is people. Will your employees show up if they have an emergency situation at home? Will they still be there after a prolonged crisis? Is your organization going to care for your 'mission critical' personnel and their families so they can resume work when order is restored? Have you advocated personal preparedness for your key people?

Sadly, the answer is NO, in most cases, as you surmise.

Godspeed

-- Pinkrock (aphotonboy@aol.com), December 22, 1999.



Well, I'm a software engineer working on a small phone system with known Y2K problems. If TSHTF, there's no way, no way at all, that I'm leaving my family. Make of that what you will.

-- Servant (public_service@yahoo.com), December 23, 1999.

you got it right Servant.
I'm a PC tech, mate is a Nurse w/2 kids, we will NOT be leaving home if anything blows up.

-- Dan G (thepcguru@hotmail.com), December 23, 1999.

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