won't that cause severe problems (1) while they're powered down, or (2) when we all try to power up at about the same time?

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 22, 1999

Answers

In some of the Y2K presentations by PNM (the major gas/electric utility in New Mexico), this was mentioned as a significant concern -- i.e., if several large plants and businesses power down abruptly (either deliberately or accidentally!) and/or power-up abruptly after the millennium rollover, it could cause power fluctuations that might be difficult to control. Fortunately, in New Mexico, there are not that many BIG customers of electricity, so PNM has had the opportunity to coordinate plans. As for the rest of us, turning our hair-dryers on or off, or checking to see if our microwave oven suffered a Y2K problem, I don't think that's going to cause any noticeable impact...

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), December 22, 1999.

Yes. It will destroy what's left of the grid.

-- (gridman@martek.net), December 22, 1999.

An uncontrolled loss and restoration of load of that magnitude would be likely to make any potential Y2K failures seem like a non event. However if carried out in a controlled fashion COULD be manageable, but would would still cause a major headache for the power suppliers.

As I have often said, it is unlikely that Y2K will be the issue that needs to be addressed, but rather it is peoples perceptions of Y2K that is likely to cause the most problems.

-- Malcolm Taylor (taylorm@es.co.nz), December 22, 1999.

Where did you get the idea that utilities would power down for the rollover?

-- Buster (BustrCollins@aol.com), December 22, 1999.

I think he means:

What happens at 00:30 on 01-01-2000 when everyone on the power grid powers up their unplugged appliances to see if everything worked? Will it cause a huge surge of demand and cause a blackout? Will the loss of all that power load cause problems?

-- Powder (Powder@keg.com), December 22, 1999.

But remember. It is a weekend. Some will power up within minutes of the rollover, others the next morning and so forth until Monday.

Most prudent businesses will power up a little at a time. Why bring up everything at the same moment if you unplugged because of concern over the power being fed to each unit causing damage to begin with.

Finally, each morning here and entire town starts flipping on lights, powerup up kitchen facilities, computers, razors, hair dryers and the like between 6-7 am. And it's like that thru-out the time zone. Never seen any brown outs caused by it yet.

The 'turn it back on' power-up issue might not be an issue unless there really are grid troubles.

-- Empty Head (Iforgot@whoknows.com), December 22, 1999.

You know, I plan to not be connected to grid power starting about noon EST) on the 31st. If you have say 10% of the commercial users shutting down their motorized equipment at any given time, then you will see huge swings in voltge, spikes and phase issues. But that is not what concerns me as much as the STARTUP after the rollover..with brownouts as these motors demand huge surges of power in order to start up again...sounds like 'dirt power' to me. And dirty power can kill yer e-powered stuff. Low voltages breed current sucking which breed low voltages. Heat goes up and connections get too warm... arcing and sparking...now that I think about it I may start this a day earlier than I planned.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), December 22, 1999.

Mr. Yourdon beat me to the PNM story. . . .

On average, U.S. electric demand in January is only 55% of July peak demand. Near rollover, as *many* companies and plants go offline (including even the main SSA database center in Baltimore and all of MIT's computer systems) we may see historic *underload* conditions. If there are also some SCADA/EMS problems and power plants & bulk control centers have trouble adjusting plant generating output quickly and correctly to this lowered demand, you might see some nasty power surges.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), December 22, 1999.

I run a chem lab with a lot of juice-sucking appliances. We are unplugging everything (except those we pray will not turn off.) This is a lot more juice than the average house. Now take the big-mother industries that consume huge amounts of power. Seems to me that grid synchronization issues must be real even in the absence of Y2K glitches. Still pondering....

PS--Take a look at the zipper on your clothes. Supposedly 90% are made by the same company and say "YKK". (My Levi's do.) At least something will be compliant.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 22, 1999.

Yes, you got it! Powering down could cause the grid-wide problems that we need to prevent!

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 22, 1999.

I'm not a "power guru", but according to the HVAC contractor who does my HVAC work (my favorite, most honest and reliable and intelligent sub) the way the power company comes back to speed after a blackout caused by heat waves (too much demand from air cons), the power company can't "turn the power back on" in a normal fashion, because most air cons and fridges are in a "start mode", which means way more power needed than for normal running.

So the power cos. send out high voltage surges, two or three times. They keep doing this until enough motors' relays are destroyed that they can resume normal operations. Sounds pretty extreme doesn't it?

Any power "gurus" care to address this?

Thanks,

ALK

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), December 22, 1999.