Does anyone have any info on how much effect the recent floods will have on that country, and it's already questionable ability to make timely oil deliveries? With possible embedded chip problems in the oil industry, the current political upheaval, and now this incredible disaster, it looks as though Venezuela got the triple-whammy. Any thoughts?

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 21, 1999

Answers

Just wait for the devastating earthquake in Mexico.

-- St. Francis of Asissi (not@afterthe.lasttime), December 21, 1999.

We won't be getting oil from anywhere in 2000! It is very obvious what will happen in 2000! The handwriting is on the wall! Look at what is happening in the world. We are already starting to have Computer problems. They will escalate and compound upon each other and cause a gradual domino effect! Y2K cannot be fixed! It is not fixable! We have only 500.000 Programmers doing the repairs. We need one Million Programmers to do the job right!

Saddam Hussein has shut down his oil production, because he knows it is no use. He knows he is doomed and that the oilwells and refineries are doomed. OPEC knows it is doomed. For the first time in 25 years they have been able to stick together and stick to their plan to cut production in order to raise prices. This is the first time they have succeeded! The price at the gas station will tell you I'm right!

Y2K will be a 2 at the end of January and then move up one or two notches every month until by May it will be a six or seven when the Banks close in Gridlock because of Cascading Cross Defaults. All Banks claim they are Y2K ready. None of them claim to be Y2K COMPLIANT!

By June or July unemployment will be at 80%. Nobody will work when the Banks are closed, because nobody will get paid. We will have until April to continue preparing and stocking up food bigtime. You will need at least 5 years of food so you will survive. Maybe even ten years!

By August we will be at a 10 and we will have an economic collapse and lack of oil will have caused it. All oilwells all over the world will shut down January 1st, 2000 because of date sensitive Embedded Micro Chips!!! Our oil reserves will not be of any use to us, because the oil wells will not operate. No Embedded Chip replacement parts are available for oil wells.

By October 2000, millions will have died from hunger all over the World. Real Estate prices will crash bigtime because of millions of empty homes! It will be a cold winter next year December without Gas or Electricity! We will have no Electricity by next fall because trains cannot deliver coal from coal mines to power plants without diesel fuel!

Food cannot be delivered to Market without diesel fuel! Food will rot on the farmers fields! Perpare for a 10 year depression!

Warn your friends and family! E-Mail this message to all those you care about!

-- jean (jfarnworth@aol.com), December 21, 1999.

Exactly how they are going to execute their contingency plans has now become "as clear as mud," especially since thousands of their work force are now dead.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 21, 1999.

Not withstanding Jean's rather frenetic post above, the Vens appear to be desparate to sell bbls. due to this crisis. It is one of their only sources of major funding down there, and they are in need of some serious funding. I heard there were bbls. being offered all over by the Vens today.

Hope that helps.

PS-Jean I'm currently estimating a 10-15% reduction in crude oil production globally which will be partially offset by a ten to 20% reduction in refining capacity. My personal preps are geared toward a 7 on a scale of ten. Not quite the end, but damn closer than I wanna be. And I hope to hell I'm wrong.

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 21, 1999.

Gee whiz jean!!!!!!! Only 22 exclamation points in that last post of yours!!!!!!!!!!!! I was asking for specific information on the condition of the Venezuelan oil industry, not a rant about how we're all going to die!!!!!!!!!!! Your post looks like a headline in the Chicago Sun-Times!!!!!! I realize what "NO OIL" will lead too!!!!!!!

Sorry everybody....I just got a little excited.....!!!!!!!!

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 21, 1999.

Gordon, what do you mean that oil production will be offset by reduced refining capacity? How is this an offset? It seems to me that this will only make the oil more scarce.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 21, 1999.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!NO OIL MEANS NO OIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

GET IT?????????

-- jean (jfarnworth@aol.com), December 21, 1999.

TM, go easy on Jean, I think the period key on her keyboard is broken. Either that or she is an aspiring DiETeR!

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 21, 1999.

Settle down jean......PLEASE! I am looking for verifiable news reports on any relationship between this current disaster and Venezuela's ability to get the oil out of the ground and onto ships. Screeching about an Infomagic type meltdown is not what I'm looking for. I think that anyone whose been around this forum long enough is very familiar with the "NO OIL IN THE WORLD" scenario.

It's my understanding that most of the oil that we do import is from that country...I think it's important enough to get a realistic understanding of their current situation. Don't you?

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 21, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Solar flares, contrails, quake in Taiwan (the chip capital), horrific mud slides in our prime source of oil imports, Russian leader falling down drunk and threatening with nukes, leaders headed underground, richest man in world leaves northern hemisphere for rollover, California poised for the big one, and tomorrow's the brightest full moon of the century. Truth is stranger than fiction.

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), December 21, 1999.

Here are the reasons why I find this situation in Venezuela so important:

1. If Venezuela IS our largest supplier of imported oil, then any conditions that may restrict, or substancially delay her ability to export oil would have an adverse effect on the U.S. economy. Those conditions include (among other things)embedded chips, political turmoil, and natural disasters. And that says nothing of possible shipping, navigational, supply/delivery, and refining problems that may be caused by Y2K issues.

2. We know that natural disasters of this magnitude can wreak havoc on a developing countries' economy. (Remember the hurricanes in central America a short while back?)It may take them years to recover from this disaster even with the aid of many other nations. Will they be quick to rebuild industrial infrastructure? Will oil deliveries remain stable?

3. We also know that natural disaster many times leads to civil disorder and political unrest. It is true that this Chavez guy seems to have popular support now, to the point that he's convinced enough people to allow him rewrite the constitution. Unfortunately, he's beginning to consolidate power like previous tin-horn dictators, and the political future of that country in light of this disaster seems tenuous at best.

4. Which way will Chavez go? Can he be influenced by the military pressures of communist Columbian insurgents who threaten his border. Is this guy a Castro wanna-be?

5. If we see greatly reduced imports, can the U.S. ratchet up it's own domestic supply industry quickly enough to make up for the loss of imports? How quickly will our own reserves last?

In light of this, rationing of oil products is the BEST case scenario, and even that will lead to quite a recession.

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 22, 1999.

Sorry...that should read -- How quickly will our own reserves be depleted?

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 22, 1999.

TM,

At our current rate of consumption there is enough in our reserves for about 4 weeks. That is assuming that it is in good condition after being in the salt mines, and of course any significant military activity would probably consume more than normal.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 22, 1999.

Hawk,

This may be a bit far-fetched, but entertain this question.

We currently have somewhat tenuous relationships with some oil suppliers around the world (middle east Islamic nations). Other suppliers (Nigeria & Venezuela) are unstable politically. If TSHTF, could you ever see the US military taking the Venezuelan oil fields by force?

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 22, 1999.

TM,

Good question, and I hadn't really thought about it. I tend to think that we would be more likely to work out something through the United Nations, IMF, World Bank fronts to, in essence, "steal" it from them, sort of like we do with Iraq (oil for food). But the New World Order machine is not going to allow itself to be slowed down, so if it came down to that, yes, I've no doubt that they would create some kind of a scenario that would make it look like we were justified in going in there and kicking some ass. That's really what the Kosovo thing was all about.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 22, 1999.

I think you've got something there...Under the guise of humanitarian assistance to the Venezuelans, we send in the "troops" to help "rebuild" and maintain civil order....maybe even incorporate a 2000 version of the Marshall Plan (only with strings attached to their oil industry).

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 22, 1999.

Jeeezzz TM, that would be something if even the storms that caused these floods were planned for that reason, eh? Hell of a conspiracy theory! Maybe that's what they've been doing with all the chemtrails, setting up a way to get control of Venezuelan oil... the timing sure looks suspicious. Hmmmm... who knows, the truth is stranger than fiction. :-)

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 22, 1999.

Hawk...LOL!...don't you just love playing the game RISK with the real world. I bet that TPTB sit in a boardroom somewhere and still play that game; rolling the dice to decide the fate of billions.

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 22, 1999.

The American Red Cross has reported that flooding and landslides have occurred in 9 northern states of Venezuela. Among these states are Zulia, Falcon, Yaracuy, Carabobo, Federal District of Caracas and Miranda.

These states make up most of the coast and include some of the most industrialized parts of the country.

Yaracuy contains, "One of the largest oil refineries in the world," according to http://venezuela.mit.edu

Falcon, is also close to two important oil refineries on the Paraguana Peninsula.

With current estimates of 30,000 dead and 150,000 homeless, there has been little time for economic evaluations. The rescue mission will continue well into the year 2000 (think North Carolina).

It also appears that no election will be held today and that Pres. Chavez will remain in power.

I certainly hope that the Ven's will make it through this but I do not see how they will continue to sell oil in the next few weeks and months.

-- Cant Say (Chicken@NoWay.com), December 22, 1999.

Cant Say,

Thanks for the info...the situation there really doesn't look from any angle. Hopefully there's better news ahead.

-- TM (mercier7@pdnt.com), December 22, 1999.

I thought Canada was the U.S.'s largest supplier of oil, not Venuzuela?? We'll send you an extra bucketfull if you ask nicely :)

-- Laurane (familyties@rttinc.com), December 22, 1999.

TM,

If you lok at the price of crude oil it dropped immeadiately after the Venezuela diaster (and most of the week). At the time I saw short blub that traders were reassured when Venezuelan oil producers saw no impact from the flooding. So, short term I'd say it has little to no effect. Just slightly longer term, we have a country with serious questions on the state of their Y2K preparations in the oil industry that is now reeling from its worst natural disaster in modern history. Realize your worry is genuine and well-placed but I feel a little slimy even discussing this and as I've shown I have been following it, but 30,000 people were snuffed out in a horrific manner and we sit here talking about its economic impact.

-- PD (PaulDMaher@att.worldnet.com), December 23, 1999.

60 days supply...

The U.S. government set up a reserve in 1975 to provide an emergency supply of oil in the event of a crisis, such as the Arab oil embargo of 1973. It currently holds about 573 million barrels of oil -- equal to two months of imports -- according to the Energy Department. The U.S. has tapped the reserve only once, in 1991, during the Persian Gulf War.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 25, 1999.