I've been lurking for the last year and have found the information and discussions in this forum INVALUABLE. Thanks to people like Ed Yourdon, Gary North, Mike Adams and many of the members of this forum I became a GI big time. I started preparing in earnest a year ago and am now comfortably ready to be self-sufficient for at least two years.

Before you identify me as a mindless doomer, let me say that I always thought that Y2K was an issue of risk-mitigation and responsibility. (I'm not an IT person, but have a PhD in the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty from the University of California and have worked as a professor in MIT) Bottomline: there is enough information to be concerned about and not enough information to disregard concerns, therefore, it is only prudent to prepare. The combination of the technological, economic and geopolitical situation of the world is serious enough to warrant contingency measures.

I believe deeply in personal freedom and its foundational response-ability, therefore I refuse to put my life (and the ones of my loved ones) in the hands of government authorities or social institutions. You see, although I live now in the US, I come from Argentina and had the unfortunate opportunity to experience what happens when people relinquish their freedom. (If you're interested in details, e-mail me, my address is real.)

As part of my spiritual preparations I debated how to communicate the information I was collecting to others in my country. If you think that there is little info here, you wouldn't believe how little has been said in the Argentine media. In fact, 99.9% of the news are happy, happy, happy. (The problems will happen in the US, you know, we don't have as many computers, plus ours are new, blah, blah, blah). Therefore I asked myself how would I feel if something happened, I was prepared, and had not told anyone else about my assessment. I realized that in that scenario I would feel like a coward who had worried about his own welfare instead of possibly helping (or even saving) others in the face of great possible hardship.

The problem is that I have a fairly high profile in Argentina. As an international academic working with several universities, being considered a crazy panic-monger is not a comfortable position. My livelihood depends on my reputation. I feared that if I presented my findings I would arise the irate responses of all those who are too comfortable with the status quo to consider its inherent risks. I agonized over this dilemma for a while and decided that I could not live with myself if I didn't report the risk. Notice that I said "risk", not certainty. I don't know what will happen, but I do know that it is not impossible for something serious to happen. So I talked with friends, associates and students. I gave interviews to the media. I wrote some essays. I started a mailing list where I pasted (and translated) much of what I read here.

The results have been mixed. A few, very few (like 4 families) have prepared for a 7-8 scenario. Some others thought it was amusing that "the professor" would have turned into a paranoid schizophrenic about this Y2K thing. These simply laughed behind my back but continued to relate to me in a quasi-friendly manner. The large majority, however, did not come to my conferences or read my serious papers but only heard about me through second-hand info (with a pretty negative spin). These people have written me off, and some have even withdrawn their support from some research centers that work with me.

I know, I know. This was always a possibility. But today I received an e-mail from a friend telling me how much damage I have caused with my outspokenness to some of the people working in these research centers. Simply by being associated with me, they have become suspect in the eyes of those who consider that I've lost my mind. I feel sad about that because these people are my friends and colleagues. I would not do anything different if I could go back in time, but it still hurts to have reached so few (but how much is each life in these four families worth?) and to be scorned by so many.

I still pray that Y2K turns out to be a BITR. I have never been invested in the outcome. Like putting on my seat-belt or buying life insurance, Y2K preparations are fully self-validating as an act of responsibility and love for those you care about. But I know that if nothing happens I will be a sort of outcast in many circles in my country. Ironically,if Y2K turns out to be a serious pothole (you should see the ones we have in Bs.As., we call them "washing holes" because you could do your laundry in them!)I bet many people will remember my talks and articles.

Any words of wisdom from those of you who have struggled with this issue will be much appreciated.

-- El Argie (el argie 1@aol.com), December 20, 1999

Answers

One of the lonliest jobs must be being a prophet of doom! Even if you are right! But be encouraged that at least you got 4 families to prepare... The fact is, most people don't want to hear bad news. They'd rather hear predictions of good things...even if they are not true.

Many of us have taken some level of ridicule. All we can do is to keep our heads up and know that we are trying to alert people with the best information we have.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), December 20, 1999.

Hi El Argie! I can't speak for anybody else, but your post rates as the most thoughtful and well reasoned approach to Y2K that I have ever seen put forth by an ordinary citizen, i.e. someone not selling something such as a book or video.

Thank you and Good Luck to you and yours!

-- Irving (irvingf@myremarq.com), December 20, 1999.

Congrats El Argie,

To realize ahead of time, the potential ridicule, and still stay true to your beliefs and analysis of the potential trouble ahead is commendable.

I myself, had nowhere near enough to lose, it was easier for me to attempt to be the voice of reason (Also, unsuccessfully, I might add). To recognize the ramifications of our inter-connected society, the so called "butterfly effect". For better or worse, having knowledge of "what could happen" and not at least attempting to share it would be almost criminal.

Unfortunately, for reasons I am still unable to discern, this seems to be the route selected by pretty much every government and major corporation on earth. I'm not looking forward to how they expect to ensure the safety and well-being of the most, and I mean most.. unprepared population ever in our history. Even this BITR scenario with the so called "prepare" for a "three day storm" has almost everyone you or I know personally, ignoring anything but the upcoming Holidays. Even victims of hurricanes, tornados, typhoons, flooding, forest fires and all ilk of disasters usual get some type of reasonable warning (Obviously, earthquakes, with our current technology, is a tough one to predict). Not Y2K, nope, not here folks, the masses, (sheeples as they are "lovingly" referred to here), the general populace aroung the world haven't done didly to prepare in case they are wrong about the havoc that may be "just down the road.

I guess I'll sum up and just say "thank you" for making the effort. Your qualifications for understanding seems self-evident to me. Not quite what anyone who "believes" "nothing is going to happen" will believe are crediable, but I can sympathize with how you feel.

I'd do the same thing again, it doesn't much matter to me how I'm perceived as long as I stay true to the information I receive. I've always tried to assimilate the info I'm getting vs. Past Experience and best analyze how to apply this new knowledge.

I realize you already know this, so it will be somewhat redundant, things are going to change, we're not going to like it....not one bit.

El Argie, may you and yours be safe and sound, fortunately, the weather shouldn't kill you in your neck of the woods. Good Luck!!

-- Michael (michaelteever@buffalo.com), December 20, 1999.

El Argie,

Things now are not so different than they were then. For wisdom, I recommend the key of knowledge. These verses of scripture show that human nature doesn't change when regarding truth. The children of Israel did exactly the same thing several thousand years ago. Isa 30:9 "That this is a rebellious people, lying children, children that will not hear the law of the LORD: 10 Which say to the seers, See not; and to the prophets, Prophesy not unto us right things, speak unto us smooth things, prophesy deceits:"

People then would rather hear and believe a lie because it is smooth. Those who do not learn from history are condemned to repeat it. I've read somewhere on this bulletin board that 90+ percent of the people are followers, 3-4% predators, and the rest leaders. Your frustration is the same of the many lurkers who post here. Perhaps this helps. God bless

-- trafficjam (roadwork@ahead.soon), December 20, 1999.

Hi, El Argie.

I became serious about the possibilities more than two years ago and told my wife of my concerns.

Unfortunately, we were having marriage difficulties at the time and were arguing frequently.

My wife had never used a computer in her life (she is mid 40's, and I am 52). She could not believe that the powers-that-be (governments, big business) would allow something like that to happen. She consulted with her father (in his mid 70's) who was also computer- illiterate, and they both said I was crazy. Her dad asked me, Did I think God had warned me, or something? I said don't be ridiculous... (I have since changed my mind about this and been Baptised.) I told my wife we were going to sell up the house and leave Sydney, at least for a couple of years. Then if nothing bad happened after a decent time period, we could come back. My wife told me not to sell the house, so when I did she took her share of the money and moved in with her parents. The children went with her, because they were frightened of the scary things I had been saying. In October I came back to Sydney to earn some money. (I work in PC Support.) So here I am in the big city with just a few days to go. I have a safe (r) place in the country (southern Queensland) for them to all move to, but they won't even talk to me now. If the sh*t hits the fan, then I just hope it will get bad enough to convince them quickly, and then maybe, I can save the kids (both 14 year olds). That assumes we can even get out of the city; and we have 1,000 kms to travel. Life's a strange thing. I hope the good Lord looks after you and those you love. DAVID HARVEY

-- David Harvey (vk2dmh@hotmail.com), December 20, 1999.

Thank you so much for responding to my request. I am amazed at the sense of fellowship I feel with so many posters at this forum. At the same time I am saddened by the sense of alienation I feel with so many old acquaintances that have decided to stay blind. In Argentina we have a saying: "the worse blind is the one that does not want to see". I may coin another saying for this forum: "the best seer is the one that sees into his/her heart". So many of you have demonstrated such wisdom and open-heartedness that I am honored to share cyber- space with you.

Thanks again for your comments.

-- El Argie (el argie 1@aol.com), December 20, 1999.

El Argie,

I am really glad that I read this post today. I have a feeling that you are correct about the problems that will arise from Y2K. You may have done your part for your society in general. Be encouraged. There is a reason for all things.

God bless you.

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), December 21, 1999.

Denial is a very strong reaction. For example, have you ever known a person who got in a car accident and then complains that they have to go to traffic school. "This is ridiculous. I know how to drive." Or have you ever tried to convince an old person to give up their license after a couple accidents. "I just wasn't thinking. Normally I have no trouble driving."

Denial that something is wrong seems to be almost as common as denial that you have done something wrong or that something is wrong with you.

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), December 21, 1999.