OT - regarding DOW going south

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I left a message this morning at 6AM. I said the Market would begin it march south today. Just intuition. Well I stand behind my prediction. It is going to HAPPEN. Today the dow performed as my intuition said it would. Get out now. YHBW! Peace. Lenny C

-- Lenny (Chmielecki@worldnet.att.net), December 20, 1999

Answers

Well I can tell you the pollies will say the Dow almost always goes down 100 points and bounces back. It will come back just because it always has before in the past.

We've never been nuked, therefore it will never happen.

There that should settle it.

-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), December 20, 1999.


Sorry, what's the meaning of YHBW?

-- Rainbow (Rainbow@123easy.net), December 20, 1999.

Lenny,

I cashed out several months ago for reasons other than Y2K, so I'm watching from the sidelines, but there are several members of my family who are still quite heavily involved in the game. They won't be pleased with today's showings, I'm afraid.

-- (ladybuckeye_59@yahoo.com), December 20, 1999.


Rainbow: YHBW equals "You Have Been Warned."

Merry Christmas!

-- Liz (lizpavek@hotmail.com), December 20, 1999.


Lenny,

I hope you don't make your living as a financial advisor. Market results for Monday, Dec 20, 1999 are as follows:

DJI = 11,144.27, -113.16 (1.01%), NYSE vol=902,233,000

Nasdaq = 3,783.89, +30.83 (+.82$), vol=1,316,812,000

S&P 500 = 1,418.1 (+.21%)

Peace, Lars

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), December 20, 1999.



Oops, S&P was MINUS .21%. Lordy, Lordy

-- Lars (lars@indy.net), December 20, 1999.

Lars -

You left out the really fun part: Negative breadth on big volume.

New York Stock Exchange: 1,292 advancers, 1,816 decliners, 902 million shares. 85 new 52-week highs, 279 new lows.

Nasdaq Stock Market: 1,870 advancers, 2,419 decliners, 1.3 billion shares. 193 new highs, 168 new lows.

This market is paper-thin...

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), December 20, 1999.


I also heard an analyst utter those famous last words today. "People always wait till the last minute." No kidding, he really said that.

-- (Dollar@bills.com), December 20, 1999.

Lenny.......

Intuition my ass!!

Bottom line......Dow started the year around 9300. It's still over 11,100 now......do the math buddy.

Sure, there are correction that occur and my guess is that it will end this year lower than it is today. SO WHAT!!

The Dow could have gone up, down or stayed about the same today. One chance in three........that does not make you a prophet.

I wish you guys would leave out all this market collapse shite until at least you have some CREDIBLE evidence. The Dow could lose 1000 points tomorrow and still end up with a respectable gain over the year!

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), December 20, 1999.


A 1% move is hardly an Earth shattering event. Now, that being said, I am expecting a significant market correction, in large part due to Y2K. But it is more likely to happen over a longer period of time. I believe it will take longer for supply and trade issues to impact earnings projections etc. In terms of people getting spooked by a grid failure in Italy, or a terrorist bombing here or there, etc., most people will ride those types of events out. You must remember, it was the individual investors that stayed the course during the asian crisis. When institutional investors sell, individuals buy on the dips. And by the way, they don't give a crap about gold. It seems that the individual investor has become somewhat of a market buffer. There are approximately 5 million people actively day trading. There are also many people with large amounts of $ HOPING for a significant drop. It is these dollars plus the flight to quality $ from over seas markets that will keep the US markets from going in the tank. These are my opinions, and like everyone else's opinions on this forum, they are limited by my own ignorance of the things of which I speak.

-- for real (for@real.com), December 20, 1999.


I too had/have long expected a drop in the stock market(s) - but have, as up to this specific date, been proved wrong.....but have seen that the "market" collectively - reacts to news.

BUT - what I learned, from reviewing the endless financial news and columns and magazines out there for year 2000-related analysis (and finding none!) is that the market absolutely cannot "predict" the future at all.

NO one predicted the current level, the dips in the early fall (August-Oct) the rebound in Oct-Nov, the doldrums in the summer - or the reactions to any single piece of economic news on a week-week basis.

HOWEVER - Every blip, every burp, every quarterly report was seen as flip-flopping the DOW, every interest rate change was salivated over by the analysts, and every quarterly report of anything was stripped apart and digested for comments and trends - only to see the latest trend get demolished two weeks later.

THUS - I conclude that any efficiency drop from computer or process failures will be exaggerated and cause even larger changes in the market. People will not "ride out" the transition, but are more likely to cause the swings to be even worse.

Overseas disruptions appear likely to remain "invisible" to investors until the quarterly reports come out in late March, early April - then, unless we've been "innoculated" by endless failures in January, February, and March - we will get hit another wave of trouble and panic sales......

There are three ways these panic over-reactions can be avoided at this stage:

if sales are frozen;

if (as the Clintons hope/expect/want) absolutely nothing happens;

if all failures are concealed by the press ... until they absolutely cannot be submerged any longer in late March and early April; by which time, the quarterly/monthly reports of true losses will be a real shocker - but by that time the primaries will be over and Gore re-nominated.....which may be the main goal as well.

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 20, 1999.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ