Let the (oil) chips (embedded) fall where they may. UN says Arab oil nations are toast?greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
I don't know how many of you caught the latest Bloomberg Financial News story about Y2K and the Arab Oil Producing nations in the Persian Gulf but this newswire story IS a major admission and a vindication for those of us here who've been warning that it would come to this point. Someone posted a thread on this earlier, but it is a ways down and this story is simply too major to let it slip from view of many who might have missed it. See the URL for the printed story in full and a link to Bloomberg.
Bloomberg cites UN and US officials for sourcing. Of course we note that they quote Koskinen with a "rosy" statement of optimistic hope and Kosky's phrase of "wish they'd started a year or two earlier"... This is a between-the-lines admission that the Arab oil kingdoms are still a year or two behind. So why the optimism, now Kosky? Answer. There is none just smoke and mirrors now for another few days til it's time for the command bunker lockdown where they'll be safe from prying reporter's uncomfortable questions.
I love this next statment for its irony and telltale signs of more than just oil co's in trouble: "Oil companies doing business in the Gulf and local officials in the region said they are concerned about the lack of progress being made by government-run utilities, such as power and water."
Of course they claim it won't affect the refineries. Yeah right. Well then why are officials soo concerned? Because it's more than just utilities. The oil is in trouble. Why do I say that? Check out the last part of the article. The statement about Mobil Exxon was:
"U.S. companies are joining in the fight against time in the Persian Gulf. Exxon Mobil Corp. said it is working with its joint venture operations in Saudi Arabia to prepare for the bug...``We have organized training workshops and set up different in-house committees to tackle this issue,'' said Curtis Brand, chief executive officer of Mobil Saudi Arabia Inc. ``We are ...comfortable with the progress.''
Note the phrase "joining the fight"... its a little late now to be joining. AND what are they doing? They've "organized" training workshops, set up in-house computers and they are "comfortable with the progress"...
Of course the telling comments comes from a computer Y2K consultant over there named Ron Nelson. He tells it like it is:
"``As far as some of the oil companies in the area, a lot of them have just looked at what we call the front-end IT systems, and have not looked at the embedded systems,''
AHHH ... Vindication for our sources telling us the same thing not only over there but elsewhere too. Let's face it... if these companies didn't do it in the biggest oil reserves what makes us think they did it in the USA?
Ron Nelson also says:
"``Everyone considered Y2K as a PC-based problem, when in reality it was much larger,'' he said.
What does that tell us ? It says they missed it, completely...everyone including the oil companies. Nothing was done about embeddeds.
I've been saying that for the past year. Of course, the pollies never believed it. They wrote off "anecdotal" evidence. They even wrote-off the facts when by their requests I came up with lists of embedded systems for oil wells that the manufacturer published as non compliant. What happened? Well Factfinder squirmed and wiggled and came up with all sorts of excuses and the polly chorus did all sorts of Ad hominums. But in the end, I've been right all along. And we're seeing bits and pieces of it coming thru in news reports like this one. What have been the others? Well the NIST report from the US Dept of Commerce, the Koskinen Memo of 11/29/99, the Mr CEO story from Jim Lord. We also had another remediation co. offer $50,000 to any company if they would let that remediation company come in and recheck and verify that the remediation contained less than 50 lines per million lines of code. No takers. And of course we recently posted the new Dept of Energy "Watch List" of Oil Producing Nations having troubles.
I could provide a long list of stories out there that should have together conclusively stopped the rational mind from questioning, but pollyana's never have had rational nor logical analysis about this. I still wonder how many pollys came in here at the bidding of the government to quell public concerns. My point is that we've had the proof. The obstinate (if not downright criminal elements within Pollyanaism) Pollies essentially interefered with trying to provide life-saving information that might have helped more folks prepare far in advance.
Well folks, that wraps it all up in a nutshell. The entire Persian Gulf Oil situation is now confirmed as "toast" once you read between the lines. That explains a lot for the reasons why we're seeing such odd behavior out of the administration. They know the score now. I wonder, don't you, when they really knew? I just have a hard time believing that they didn't know all of this about embedded chips problems until just recently. They've had to know for perhaps a couple of years or a year and a half when Y2K began to really hit the radio talk-show circuits. Even a 2 year lead time to get people prepared would have been enough to really pump up the economy in a very healthy manner and still had time to have forced business to make unpleasant decisions. Ultimately, the blame rests with the Clintonistas and their cronies in and out of government and the corruption they created. It's not just Democrats, Republicans are equally guilty too. They are fellow cronies with Clinton. After all, Senator Robert Bennett is a a Republican senator and he chairs that Y2K committee. It's all so sad, so very sad.
I guess this story like many tells us that it may be a lot, lot worse than we feared, if the chips fall where they may.
What are your thoughts? Is this story pivotal in the oil story status?
-- R.C. (email@example.com), December 20, 1999
One quick announcement for those of you who've been inquiring to me privately about when I'd do another review of the oil industry. I am in process now. In fact I'm waiting on 2 critical sources to respond and confirm so information that has just come to me that is shocking. this information comes from a very, very high level exec within a top major oil co. I can't provide details yet. I want to provide one final article and not scatter everything out. I'm hoping to get final incoming feedback within the next 24/48 hours. When I do, we'll come here with it ASAP. One thing I'm trying to do is get some sources to permit full name disclosure of themselves and their companies. (I'm hopeful but I'm not holding my breath).
So keep watching, I hope I can tell you a lot more soon.
-- R.C. (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
hmmmm....but wait, the Flint Oricle, er orifice, has not yet spoken...
-- (@ .), December 20, 1999.
Remember this post on Saudi Oil back from Sept 30.
Update on Saudi Oil Ports--not good
Here is an update filed this morning by the same contact who has provided us previous updates on the Saudi oil ports.
"Allow me to offer some first hand, in the trenches, up close and personal observations. In case you havn't kept up with current events I am curently in the mid-east at the behest of a major petroleum company frantically attempting to alleviate the Y2k impact here.
Factoid: here on the Saudi Peninsula there has been little to no Y2k work done at all. Reason? There has been a perception that it isn't a problem because the American Media has consistently disregarded it. So, it isn't a problem for the international set. The Mid-east is now awakening to the potential and will have it fixed soon right? Ehhhh... Wrong!!.. most of the oil ports here rely nearly 100% on computer (PLC's not COBOL) controlled systems for the preliminary cracking of the crude and for the control for shipment. These are the "embedded systems" that we keep hearing about.
First problem...identification. over half of the systems are in areas that do not allow ready access to the unit for testing. So we have to use statistical analysis of type failures. Bad news. 100% infant mortality of the most common PLC. So replace them, right? Ehhhh... another wrong answer... at this rate you will never win the Ronco electric dog polisher... The ONLY way to replace them is to take the WHOLE facility off line for about hmmmm.. 4 months... Now, it should be noted that this is the "premier" facility in the mideast accounting for about 45-50% of petro shipments. Contingency plan.... BUILD (yes I said build) a series of work arounds that could be put inplace with manual controls to attempt to keep the facility running. But even with that we are going to have to let the master system fail and the cut the manual valving into the system one location at a time (manpower problem)Otherwise we are right back at the same problem of taking the whole facility down.. OBTW we can't test this first so it is gonna get dicey as we attempt to guesstimate pressure and flow (previously handled by the computer) and will probably have the system operational in 30 to 40 days. THEN we will begin to replace the PLC's. And just in case you haven't caught on yet that means NO Crude from this facility AT ALL!! for at least 30 days. The Iraqi facility up at Basra is gonna crap out as well as the Yemeni port. Oh yeah, it is only a three day storm cum "bump in the road" right??"
-- Interested Spectator (is@the_ring.side), December 20, 1999.
For 18 months when someone asked my opinion of y2k I replied with the following: "Think four words, no oil, no go." It is as simple as that.
The personal effects are staggering for moi. And for all of those who have to make their living on the road, well public transportation is just not viable.
Our biz is county fairs. We travel five western states. Fuel for the vehicle beasts is all important. our travels next year may well be curtailed as we start in AZ, the NV, then CA then OR and WA. Sends shivers up the spine.
We have about 300 gallons here on the farm, but I can't take it with me--those RV beasts suck it.
I am one of those small businesses that can not prepare for y2k. For one thing, I dont use a computer for business.
-- Peace Farmer (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
once again, excellent thoughts you brought up.
I guess, Yardenis expectations on a 70% chance of a gloabal recession / depression are based on the same issues the bloomberg's article is ponting to.
OIL is - IHMO - one of the three motors driving todays world. The others are financials (bubble economy) and Joe Sixpaxs belief in the all-time-supply (24x365) of more or less necessary goods such as water, power, gas, food & TV.
The speacial about oil is that only oil discussions would be albe to reach the sheaples. All other is to complex.
But it's to late.
I have my rescue boat prepared.
-- Rainbow (Rainbow@123easy.net), December 20, 1999.
How about just an itsy bitsy preview, just in case we can't tune in later? Sample of the shocker(s), please?
-- TA (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
RC -- You are completely correct that this article confirms the gist of what you and Gecko have been saying for months. The IMPACT remains unknown but the fact with respect to the process track your expectations so far nearly perfectly.
-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 20, 1999.
Once again Thank-you for your work RC...---...
-- Les (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
Thanks R.C. You're time, effort and contributions have always been appreciated.
John Wayne 'cyber style'......
-- Will continue (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
Oh yes, Thank you for bringing that up, I meant to and got sidetracked yes... this story vindicates the anonymous poster doing remediation in Saudi Arabia. I remember the Polly's doing vicious attacks on his character also and essentially saying it's insane to consider not only the reports but that it can't be true because the Saudis essentially wouldn't lie about it.
I just want to know one thing ... you pollies... how will you sleep at night knowing your comments may have prevented innocent people from preparing because of your smartass comments. How will you live with that blood on your hands??? I'd really like to know?
-- R.C. (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
Thanks for all the thank yous but you guys all do as much as I do and probably a lot more, as many of you are here daily providing support. That is what I see this forum as being about, support for surviving the Y2K issue. We simply support each other and that is what makes this forum unique among the Y2K forums.
TA... I'd love to, I've practically bitten my tongue/ no tips of my fingers off wanting to get it out... but I'm still waiting for all the news and a clarification to come forward. I gotta wait til I've got it exactly right. Hang in there... it may be sooner than you think.
-- R.C. (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
I not only stand by those earlier posts, but I had them confirmed again this afternoon, in more detail. I'm not going to reveal more, because it could put people at risk. I know, BS unattributed rumors... Only they are not rumors.
But I don't care. It's too late to do more than grocery store kind of preparation.
No Saudi oil for quite some time. Get used to it. Fact.
-- Dog Gone (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
And to think--this will start just after the sheeple follow the gov. orders and all run to the gas station on 12/31/99 to fill their tanks.
Gee wonder how thats gonna look???
-- d----- (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
The person who posted from Saudia Arabia posted another message about the Saudi port. He said they had come up with a plan to lay some pipe so they could bypass the main Saudi port and ship oil from ports of adjacent countries, which are not computer controlled. That person posts frequently on the freerepy2k list, but he is in the US now.
-- Dave (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
If everything else was 100 % remediated and tested worldwide and just this oil situation remained, this, by itself, is enough to shock and debilitate the world economy. Thanks for your great work in getting to the truth. I'm getting very jittery, like this can't be happening.
-- PJC (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
Hey, Peace Farmer...does your company name have a precious metal in it? I think I may know you..traveled some of the same routes and shows. EMail is real. Taz
-- Taz (Tassi123@aol.com), December 20, 1999.
Anybody remember what happened the last time American oil interests were threatened (08/02/1990)? We had a little war. Whaddaya thinks going to happen this time?
-- Phread (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
Good job. Your ongoing contentions do seem to be getting some confirmation via some voiced concerns. But you are claiming total vindication a tad early. Voiced concerns from a few individuals do not mean all Mideast production and loading facilities are TOAST.
In my humble opinion, the Mideast remediator has made other statements that aren't credible (ie the Saudis are going lay pipelines and pump through neighboring countries). This makes no sense. So where does that leave his other contentions?
If you were the Saudis or the Kuwaitis and you knew your loading facilities were a tad toasty, what would you do? You'd time charter from this glutted tanker market and you'd bang out as many barrels as you could before rollover. The Oil and Gas Journal just had an article on how many tankers are getting scrapped because there's no market for them. As long as oil is produced and stored, and not sold, its not a violation of OPEC's quota system. OPEC, predominately Mideast producers, have had 'floating stockpile' programs in the past (like during the Iran Iraq war) that had racked up as much as 80-100 million barrrels. So the one ongoing question that I continue to ask- If the Mideast producers know they're toast why aren't they stockpiling crude in advance or taking other measures? The oil info services track this kinda thing. There's zero evidence that any Mideast stockpiling is going on. Even the 20 mil barrels the Iranians had stockpiled has apparently been sold into the Far East.
Y2k rollover probs forthcoming? I'm with you, especially power probs and in the 3rd world backwaters that have fessed up to doing nothing.
But all the Mideast is totally toasted? Its a tad early to make these kinda claims and crow about it.
-- Downstreamer (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
I can't say a whole lot on this, but I have a credible source from a very well-placed source indicating the Gulf is "non-compliant."
I can't go into more details at this time but this individual has been a leader in the industry for embeddeds. A world-expert. I'm working to get a public statement from this person. You'd know his oil co. name if I gave it. I just don't know that he could be convinced to go public with what he knows. His comments are "chilling" to say the least. I will post more on this later if I'm permitted. We shall see. I've got a lot of other sources also reconfirming various other aspects of this situation but none with the credibility of this one key source. Patience.
-- R.C. (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
I almost forgot,
The pipeline story is valid. It has been discussed as far back as a year ago or so as part of backup plan in case of any kind of problem. I don't know how seriously it has been acted upon if at all. But it was being talked about. So, don't consider it to be so crazy. Whether or not Y2K was a motivating factor back then, I don't know.
-- R.C. (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
Some recent articles did say that certain mideast suppliers are stockpiling in tanker ships...
-- Mad Monk (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
I would like to add my thanks to the work you do and it is posts like yours that make this forum valuable to me. I await your next one R.C.
-- ghost (fading into firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
May I add my voice to the chorus of "thank you's." Since I've seen so many threads following your issue today, I went to the IEE site I first read in the spring of 1998, the one that clued me in so successfully to the embedded system problem. They have added many examples of failures since I last read there.
If you follow the "Petrochemicals" link from the link I've given here you will see one example of how bad things can get. And, if you follow the "Updates" link, you will see a discussion of "reasonableness" in terms of date of knowledge of the problem.
I realize that most of you are well ahead in knowledge of this problem, but given that the trolls are still around, it may also be time for a reality check.
-- Rachel Gibson (email@example.com), December 20, 1999.
Hot Damn! Got out of that business 30 miles away just in time, and my wife's new job is 2 miles from home. And we kept that tiny Toyota that goes a month between fillups. But oil goes into the prices of all consumer goods, so we can only wait for the joys of 1979 inflation to return.
-- jor-el (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 20, 1999.
While we "Brace for impact".
The rest of creation is still buying action figures for Christmas.
They won't believe it until it runs over them and then backs up and does it again.
-- snooze button (email@example.com), December 21, 1999.
No Flint yet on this thread. Flint? Hello?
-- Forrest Covington (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 21, 1999.
In terms of thanks, I can't think of anything that hasn't already been said. Nonetheless, thank you. I *greatly* appreciate your input.
Regarding your question "What did they know and when did they know it?" Perhaps some day we will find out. Until then, I consider it sufficient to assert that they had both an obligation and an ability to 'know' as of (at least 2) years ago.
Our leaders, both Republican and Democrat, have abrogated their fiduciary responsibilities. And though I have previously considered myself more of a Republican than Democrat (no longer) I believe that on this issue Bennett has done far more to betray the American People than Clinton has. What sickens me is that to this day Bennett compares himself to Paul Revere. How immodest. How untrue.
Perhaps there was something in Bennett's FBI file which his Mormon constituency would not have approved of - who knows. But his warnings have been so muted as to be worthless.
We're going to hit the wall at 100 mph. Who knows what happens then? I don't think we'll like it.
May God bless America.
-- Me (email@example.com), December 21, 1999.
-- patiently_waiting (not) ;-) (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 21, 1999.
RC - add my thanks to growing list. :-)
Fuel rapidly being added to this ever-growing fire! 2000 is gonna be an interesting ride, that's for sure!
-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 21, 1999.
Thanks so much, R.C., for your valiant efforts. You're precious.
-- eve (email@example.com), December 21, 1999.
Got Mountain Bicycles?
-- Diane J. Squire (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 21, 1999.
This Forum has been invaluable in presenting fuel considerations. RC, we have thanked you many times before, and are grateful you have stuck with it and continue to provide timely information.
Got locking gas caps on our cars.
We are fortunate to live in an area covered with multitudes of excellent bike paths and an increasing committment from the entire metro+ area to provide more 'n more 'n better routes / access for bikes.
Based on all the reports, and the risks they represent, we did buy 2 mountain bikes, and have been relentless about accessorizing them, riding (weather allowing), and just got them tuned up. Has been a fast and intense ramp-up in an area we knew nothing about. Another Y2K College Course :-) Still a lot to learn! Now the only worry is, if they are as necessary as we think they will be, how will we prevent marauders from knocking us off and seizing the bikes? Got pepper spray.
And if it gets to the point where there are roving packs of wild dogs ... *shudder*
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (email@example.com), December 21, 1999.