link at

http://wwfn.com/crashupdate.html

This index just hit -10 Which suggest a strong posibility of a crash in the next two weeks or so.

Can you say CONVERGENCE ... :o)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 19, 1999

Answers

Yep, I predict major crashes as soon as the market opens after rollover. A lot of investors have been nervous about inflation, Y2K, possible recession, etc. but they have been holding out to avoid having to pay the capital gains taxes within this tax year. The first week of January they will take their profits in the new tax year, wait until the market bottoms out, and then buy back in.

-- Hawk (flyin@high.again), December 20, 1999.

It's what I would do - problem is - you have to sell out BEFORE everybody else does.

If you wait just one day too long to sell out your buddies who are staying in, you loose your money, and "they" keep their money, ready to re-invest .

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), December 20, 1999.

Andy,

The crash index gave its initial -10 signal on 8/3/99. The S&P has risen by 7-8% since then and has missed the most dynamic move of the year, so far. This indicator also gave a bad sell signal a few months before August. I don't know what comprises the index;it hasn't worked so well this year.

-- mike (maples@voy.net), December 20, 1999.

Right Mike...

this is what I think is going on..

The FED, PPT, AG etc. are moving heaven and earth to keep the bubble alive until rollover - they have flooded the markets with liquidity to do this - they have a lock on gold and silver to convince the sheeple "investors" that all is ok - they have cooked the books with the CPI and RPI figures (The Economsts magazine recently said that the USA had a 34% - repeat 34% inflation rate!!!! - The FED said, ahem, something *slightly* lower - (!!!!!!!) - they have dicked with the Companies representing both the DOW and Nasdaq to give them more oooomph! -

All in all - 2 weeks to go

THEN

POOFT! Blame it all on y2k - "oil shock" - Bloodbath...

You know the rest...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

Andy, Andy, Andy,,,

The Economist said 34% inflation??? When did you say that issue came out?

This is a serious Question...I've watched the cheapest milk go from $1.99 to $2.99 this past year, yet officially inflation doesn't exist.

Andy, any reference you could supply would be greatly appreciated!

-- Losing it (Losing it @ Lost it.com), December 20, 1999.

i know the 34% is hard to believe - I saw it on a recent gold forum... sorry don't have a link, I think the Economist has a web page...

Remember that the FED now computes inflation CONVENIENTLY leaving out food and fuel etc...

Come on - you know inflation is above 2% or whatever crap number it is thay are asking us to believe...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

Andy or anyone. I am not finance savy AT ALL, but what could the possible financial ramifications be of a terrorist attack or a series of them? I would assume that it would depend on what was targeted. If someone blew up an oil refinery or something along that line, I would imagine that could have quite a negative affect.

-- B.Clark (mrmomx6@aol.com), December 20, 1999.

BC,

yes you are right - the alleged terrorist recently caught on the Canadian border may have been better served to hit the Alaskan pipeline if he wanted to inflict serious damage - I'm sure that the USA has many enemies that are eyeing that pipeline and the likes of refineries, oil docks etc. for any initiatives...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 20, 1999.

Sure glad I don't have to worry about such garbage as the stock market. I am on a fixed retirement income, that the government saw fit to cut in half, so my family and I must live at a poverty level. Of course I know I will suffer the consequences of all you big guys suffering your loses with much higher grocery and fuel prices. But I sure don't have to worry about the money socked away in investments or in a savings account. I am not poking fun at you, you worked hard for yours the same as I, in fact I feel sorry for you. I wish you good luck in your investment decisions to beat Y2K. Good luck and God bless.

-- Notforlong (Fsur439@aol.com), December 20, 1999.

Not for long,

Maybe if you hadn't decided to rely on the government, you wouldn't be living at poverty level.

I'm not poking fun at you. You worked hard for your money like I did. I just invested some of it in the right place so I don't have to eat at the trough of Uncle Sam.

-- (OffThe@tits.of the gov), December 20, 1999.

Andy, can you or someone else list the major components of the "market basket" that the .gov uses to figure the inflation index? If memory serves, it seems to me that the method has been jimmied in the past six years (read: current administration/greenspan et al) to show a less than honest inflation reading. Has fuel been taken out, too? Might explain why the recent increases in gas and fuel oil prices here in New England (regular gas went from under a dollar to $1.39 in less than a year) haven't been reflected in the index. And you're right, everyone knows the official inflation numbers are bogus, but no one seems willing to do anything about it as long as so many people are watchng their Dow index funds rise.

-- Cash (cash@andcarry.com), December 20, 1999.

If you follow the markets over the past year then you might have noticed that the "statistics" seem to massage the markets. Just when they get skittish, behold good inlfation numbers. When the market starts to hyperventilate then "robust" housing starts etc.. etc.. This is the same administration that stole FBI files, created an enemies dbase at the Whitehouse with civil servants, and basically pulls all the strings at the Justice Department. There comes a time when the big money goes to the sidelines. This distribution has given just the opportunity for the big players to start cashing in their chips. DO NOT BE THE LAST ONE AT THE TABLE. If y2k is no big deal you can enter for the January rally and cahs back out before the pre- announcements hit. The safest play is to sit this dance out (IMHO).

Thanks as always for the information Andy,

-- Squid (ItsDark@down.here), December 20, 1999.

Anyone notice that the OCT PPI was about five times as high as the OCT CPI? Then in NOV, they were both low. This made me doubt the credibility of the numbers. Are we to believe that producer prices rose about 10 percent, but out of the goodness of their hearts, they only raised consumer prices about 2 percent? BS They pass on every cost they can find, even some imaginary ones.

-- MegaMe (CWHale67@aol.com), December 20, 1999.