Is anybody else suffering from the fact that you've spent the last xx years (xx = 2.5 for me) trying to understand the problem and could find out that you were simply off-the-wall wrong? My job requires that I sort through some very complex scientific problems and I pretty good at it. Such a conclusion would/will be a little rough for a while.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 17, 1999

Answers

I thought for sure that MORE would be obvious by late December. Instead, I'd say that much less is obvious.

I now have NO idea what to expect.

I know only that, if it's bad-bad-bad, very few people will be prepared at all.

-- off-the-wall is a (way@of.life), December 17, 1999.

I have the same problem Dave.

Analysis might as well be my middle name. I am VERY good at it, both in the field and on tests. I can zoom from the big picture to the finest of detail.

While I expect that there will be problems, the disconnect for me is when I look at others' reactions. How can other people not show at least SOME concern? I want to scream at people, "Why aren't you storing any water?!?!?!?!?!"

I have absolutely no idea at this point what WILL happen.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), December 17, 1999.

After spending 30 years in the computer business, I retired about 5 years ago. Started tracking y2k about 18 months ago. Large systems are very, very complex. If you are a typical 'successful' person in government or business and not sure what's happening, you bluff and BS. That is what has happened BIG TIME with y2k. That is why there are doubts about the outcome. You have seen the biggest media BS blitz since WWII. Just a little time, time, time, time, time and all our problems will be solved.

-- LongTimeLurker (Old@MensaMember.com), December 17, 1999.

No way to be "off the wall" wrong.

For starters, the world as a "system of systems" is still so ill- understood that anyone could be "sincerely" off-the-wall wrong, whether predicting 2 or 10.

The available systems data is poor, methods for standardized descriptions of it (the infamous compliance percentages) are non- existent and the ability to interpret (rationally) the data midst a flood of media and PR spin is impossible.

I might actually be more surprised to find out I had been right (8.5), given the factors I just named above! After all, how COULD I have been right? What tacit knowledge (cf Polanyi) was I using without "knowing" it? Why was I right and so many other people wrong?

The Y2K process has resembled a cat scan of the world's technical, political and philosophical culture that no one can read.

Because the post-Y2K landscape is likely to be replete with the same data-crud as pre-rollover, I suspect that we will never understand WHY it was a 2 or a 10 ....

That is disappointing for people like ourselves but c'est la vie.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 17, 1999.

If I need any of my preps, I will be very surprised. If I need all of my preps, I will be stunned. Kind of like if my house actually burned down, or I actually had to do the Heimlich manuveur on someone. You prepare, but you really don't believe you will ever have to use it.

Small businesses will definitely be having problems. The larger and the stronger may be okay. What happens to government will most likely be funnier than watching the three stooges.

Nobody knows.

-- Amy Leone (leoneamy@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

Dear Dave,

You are very sane! I can tell you this because of my life's experiences and lifelong observations.

I was instilled with grim reality almost from the day I was born; therefore it's difficult to mess with my mind.

After not having watched TV "news," and such, for many years, I have begun to do so again just recently. To me, almost every "news" segment is WEIRD. Even many Y2K programs mix entertainment type fantasy with reality. Have you noticed that many of the movies during the last few years have been based on real current events intermingled with fiction? Too often facts get mixed with fiction and fantasy!

All of Switzerland has been prepared for massive, potentially grim events for a long time. Same with Mormons. Are they all paranoid? Based on my first paragraph my answer to this is that they are not.

It is not the other way around, that those people who are in denial about what has happened, is happening, and might happen, are paranoid?

My entire youth was totally destoyed, to within a hairs' breadth of my death, needlessly, by people in denial. Self-delusion is as common as garbage along our highways.

Hang in there, Dave.

-- Not again! (seenit@ww2.com), December 17, 1999.

I know what you're getting at Dave, but I spend much more time worrying about being right. if it does turn out that the impact of y2k is laughably (sp?) small compared to my doomerish assessment, then I will quite happily hang up my cerebral cortex and quit the inductive generalisation business for quite some time. I worry much more about what I could've/should've/might've done to help people out, in the event of severe local problems.

-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), December 17, 1999.

The laws of God cannot be circumvented for any long period of time. History shows waves and cycles. There are severe metaphysical consequences to evasion of Truth. Lies do not lead to good in the long run.

Dave, you are trying to keep a clear and alert mind against a rushing racing tidal wave of spin, lies, BS, denial, propaganda, hired PR campaigns, mass thought stagnation.

The fact that you are still struggling to fairly evaluate Y2K possibilities shows a mental fortitude and strength of character rare these days!

The Law of Cause and Effect is still inexorably operating behind the scenes ...

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 17, 1999.

>> My job requires that I sort through some very complex scientific problems ... <<

First, science does not deal well with falsified data or even just lax data. It depends on rigor. The types of information that are widely available about Y2K simply are not adequate for a scientific analysis.

Second, Y2K is embedded in a non-linear and non-determinative system. Even with good data, it would be impossible to make predictions about, except perhaps in a statistical or probabalistic sense.

Third, there have not been enough observed instances of Y2K to generate meaningful statistics about it.

My conclusion: it doesn't matter how good you are at scientific analysis, predictions about Y2K will never be more accurate than the kind of analysis the CIA does, when it tries to predict what a country's politics will be like five years out. It is purely seat-of-the-pants stuff, backed up by whatever data you can glean out of the noise.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 17, 1999.

Dear Ashton, dear Leska,

I'm glad to "see" you again. Hope you've fully recoverd. I've learned much from your posts; your observations and conclusions often match my experiences.

-- Not Again! (seenit@ww2.com), December 17, 1999.

Not Again!

We are so glad you have withstood the slings and arrows of life (and this Forum) and continue to witness to History. Denial goes forward and backwards, unfortunately. Many people do not want to hear about the reality of historical atrocities. Yet, the cosmic Repeat button has not been disabled.

It Will Happen Again, and thank God for courageous survivors such as yourselves who stand the test of time and keep the torch of remembrance burning brightly as a Light Tower for the clueless floating along merrily with the tide ...

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 17, 1999.

A&L -- correct. Sane people in their 70s, without any rose in their eyeglasses, are appalled at the sheer volume of deceit that, with public approval, permeates world culture. Indeed, it DIDN'T used to be like this. People lied, but lying was not considered a positive culture value. God IS. And the world will pay the price, whether next year, ten years from now or fifty years from now. The longer it goes, the steeper will be that price.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 17, 1999.

BigDog, absolutely.

80s, "greed is good."
90s, "lying is good."
Complete with 'studies' reporting that those who lie repeatedly are more popular, socially adept, successful, etc.

In a surreal dangerous world where everything is upside down inside out twisted and knotted,
There remains a powerful living dynamic rock solid Force and Source,

"Bear Not False Witness"

Amen to Thee, O Lord Immutable! Before You we bow. Thy yoke we take willingly. Remain with us forever!

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 17, 1999.

Let's see...

"God" created ALL.

"God" is perfect.

We were created by "God".

We are flawed.

This concept of "God" doesn't pass the laugh test. Still, I forgive you. Just keep it to yourself...and I will as well.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

>Just keep it to yourself...and I will as well<

What is it nowadays that so many people do not want others to speak of God, yet permit and encourage them to particpate in everyhting else? Regardless that such activities destroy morals, health, family, country. And earth.

-- Not Again! (seenit@ww2.com), December 17, 1999.

" ... Dull minds discredit the possibility of divine justice, love, omniscience, immortality. "Airy scriptural conjectures!" Men with this insensitive viewpoint, aweless before the cosmic spectacle, set into motion in their lives a discordant train of events that ultimately compels them to seek wisdom.

"The omnipotence of spiritual law was referred to by Jesus on the occasion of his triumphal entry into Jerusalem. As the disciples and the multitude shouted for joy, and cried, "Peace in heaven, and glory in the highest," certain Pharisees complained of the undignified rejoicing. "Master," they protested, "rebuke thy disciples."

But Jesus replied that if his disciples were silenced, "the stones would immediately cry out." (Luke 19:37-40)

In this reprimand to the Pharisees, Christ was pointing out that divine justice is no figurative abstraction, and that a man of peace, though his tongue be torn from its roots, will yet find his speech and his defense in the bedrock of creation, the universal order itself.

"Think you," Jesus was saying, "to silence men of peace? As well may you hope to throttle the voice of God, whose very stones sing His glory and His omnipresence. Will you demand that men not celebrate together in honor of the peace in heaven? Will you counsel them to gather in multitudes and express their oneness only on occasions of war on earth? Then make your preparations, O Pharisees, to overtopple the foundations of the world; for gentle men as well as stones or earth, and water and fire and air shall rise up against you, to bear witness to the divine harmony in creation. ..."

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), December 17, 1999.

"the stones would immediately cry out."

I have heard the stones cry out:

"Our bombings became ever more frequent and destructive. Nightly, at the wail of sirens, Ma and Pa scrambled over the masonry rubble littering the streets. They carried Little Brother and me in their arms, to find protection underground. Droning airplanes showered us with bombs that shook our world and everything in it. They liberated the people huddling in caves and basements. When the sirens announced the end of the rain of terror from the sky, upon the reign of terror on the ground, we ventured out to find the city in flames and bodies in rubble."

I'm hearing them again! Unfortunately, this time, they are screaming ever louder.

-- Not Again! (seenit@ww2.com), December 17, 1999.

Not Again!

If the popular "God" concept wasn't such a blatant contridiction, thinking people wouldn't mind including God in their life.

You have to "think" to learn about God. Once you learn about God, you're supposed to stop thinking?

I think not.

---------------------------------------------------------------

Ashton & Leska in Cascadia,

[" ... Dull minds discredit the possibility of divine justice, love, omniscience, immortality. "Airy scriptural conjectures!" Men with this insensitive viewpoint, aweless before the cosmic spectacle, set into motion in their lives a discordant train of events that ultimately compels them to seek wisdom.]

If God has predetermined the outcome, nothing you say or do can change it. Otherwise, God is guessing, just like you are guessing about the results of Y2K.

If God hasn't predetermined the outcome, then God doesn't know the outcome. If God doesn't know the outcome, then God isn't who God claims to be.

["The omnipotence of spiritual law was referred to by Jesus on the occasion of his triumphal entry into Jerusalem. As the disciples and the multitude shouted for joy, and cried, "Peace in heaven, and glory in the highest," certain Pharisees complained of the undignified rejoicing. "Master," they protested, "rebuke thy disciples."]

"Belief" does not make truth. "Faith" does not make truth. Objective facts make truth. You rail against TPTB for not providing you with "objective facts" about Y2K, yet you blindly follow a God who treats you no better.

[But Jesus replied that if his disciples were silenced, "the stones would immediately cry out." (Luke 19:37-40)]

The only Perfect "God" is a "Silent God". A "God" who knows the outcome beforehand. A "God" who doesn't have to return and "save" anyone or anything. Everything will achieve as set in motion to achieve, from the beginning.

[In this reprimand to the Pharisees, Christ was pointing out that divine justice is no figurative abstraction, and that a man of peace, though his tongue be torn from its roots, will yet find his speech and his defense in the bedrock of creation, the universal order itself.]

Divine justice? The laws of nature dictate. Those best equiped to adapt and overcome survive as history so harshly reminds us. It's rooted in genetics coupled with environmental factors.

["Think you," Jesus was saying, "to silence men of peace? As well may you hope to throttle the voice of God, whose very stones sing His glory and His omnipresence. Will you demand that men not celebrate together in honor of the peace in heaven? Will you counsel them to gather in multitudes and express their oneness only on occasions of war on earth? Then make your preparations, O Pharisees, to overtopple the foundations of the world; for gentle men as well as stones or earth, and water and fire and air shall rise up against you, to bear witness to the divine harmony in creation. ..."]

Again, what is "divine"? To "believe" and have "faith" in your thoughts, hoping for salvation to rid your miserable life of life itself? The grass looks greener on the other side of the fence. But it also looks greener on this side, from over there.

It is correct that your actions should speak for you. All words are ambiguous...a flawed form of communication. Even the so called "Word of God". When words don't mean what they say, they mean nothing at all. Again, you rail against TPTB for speaking to you about Y2K in the same manner "God" speaks to you.

"God" is a personal issue. Speak of personal issues with those you know personally else you open yourself to unwanted comment. Y2K is a global issue. Big difference. Let's keep God to ourselves and get back on topic, please?

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

Goldreal -- in past times, because people were aware of death as imminent and near, talk about God was everywhere. Some of it was inspired, some insipid, like all human talk. But because the subject was felt to be urgent, people talked about it. And argued about it. And, yes, unfortunately and wickedly, killed over it.

It may well be that this forum and this thread isn't the place for such talk but it is regrettable that talk about God is now "dirtier" than talk about sex!

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), December 17, 1999.

Are people are now afraid to speak of God?

Once, a lot of people became afraid to speak of, and about, Nazis. Later they would speak incessantly of Nazis.

"While driving south to Belgrade, we stopped in the town of Nis to visit a historical monument. It was a solid tower of human skulls. These human skulls were all cemented together, all looking outward. Their ghostly images peered eerily through a glass coffin that reflected the stained glass windows of the sheltering outer tower.

During the fourteenth century, armies had come from the east, killing millions of people and erecting skull towers as reminders as to whose god was in control. We learned on our travels that the people who created the most cadavers were too often in control."

-- Not Again! (seenit@ww2.com), December 17, 1999.

GoldReal,

>Even the so called "Word of God"<

There is something powerful about the Old Testament in that there are equidistant letter sequence codes beneath the plain text in the Original Hebrew. Yes this is no joke AND CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED by you or anyone else. World renouned mathematicians put the odds of these codes existing by mere chance as impossible.

If you really want to pursue this try the... Signature of God by Grant Jeffery.(although there are many other books). Also try a word search "Torah Codes" on the web.

Those that don't believe in God, attribute this phenomenon to aliens.

-- earl (ejrobill@pcpostal.com), December 17, 1999.

There is something powerful about the Old Testament in that there are equidistant letter sequence codes beneath the plain text in the Original Hebrew. Yes this is no joke AND CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED by you or anyone else. World renouned mathematicians put the odds of these codes existing by mere chance as impossible.

Please name one of these "world renowned mathematicians". Oh, you can't? What a surprise.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), December 17, 1999.

Please name one of these "world renowned mathematicians". Oh, you can't? What a surprise.

-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), December 17, 1999.

Harold Gans - Senior cryptologic mathematician NSA. In an attempt to disprove the original paper, he wrote his OWN ALGORITHM. He has since left the NSA and is in Jerusalem.

Doron Witzum - left graduate studies in general relativity to devote himself full time to the codes

Eliyahu Rips - has international stature as a group theorist. Came to Jerusalem a fierce athiest, now fully orthodox.

Gerald Schroeder - physicist, long at MIT, has worked for the US Dept of Defense, the Atomic Energy Commission and the UN. Personally owns the patent for the device used to detect and measure the intensity of airborne radioactivity. Published more than seventy scientific articles. Left it all to come to Jerusalem.

Professor Daniel Michaelson - maintained appointments both in the Dept. of Mathematics at UCLA and the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Began as a sceptic and is now fully orthodox, because of the codes.

David Kazhdan - full professor in the Math dept. at Harvard.

This list does not include the reviewers for the original publication in Statistical Science. There were an UNPRECEDENTED THREE PEER REVIEWS OVER FIVE YEARS.

The science held, the paper was published.

What may interest you is that as a group, theoretical mathematicians tend to be athiests. The fact that this held up to their scrutiny speaks volumes.

The Code is real, a lot of the claims about it are not.

The only really legitimate book on the subject is "Cracking the Bible Code" by Jeffery Satinover, M.D.

Read this if any daylight still gets into that closed mind of yours.

Regards,

Will

-- Will Huett (Willhuett@usa.net), December 17, 1999.

It's the code :-)

-- reality (rules@for.eternity), December 17, 1999.

Will: Steve asked you to name ONE, but you named a BUNCH. So, he was right, you couldn't just name ONE, could you now??? (Known as the Dorito Effect.)

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), December 17, 1999.

KoS, ROFL!

Not Again!, It is good to see you still here.

-- (RUOK@yesiam.com), December 18, 1999.

>Not Again!, It is good to see you still here. <

UROK, me too.

And I wonder why.

The following episode was my first little obstacle to remain alive. Soon to be followed others. There would be many more years of similar obstacles which were biblical in proportions:

"Our family lived with Mr. Y in his apartment. He suffered from tuberculosis. The hospital had given up hope for him and had sent him home, because like so many in this land, he was a goner.

.... Our rowhouse was located on a corner where a spoke joined this hub. It was built of concrete and clay blocks and was finished with stucco, like all the others. Its Mansard roof faced south and west to absorb the sunrays to boil us during the summer. I cooked too slowly, so Ma stood up my crib on the gutter and leaned it against the hot roof tiles. With me in it. High above the Platz, I burned, peeled and browned so well that Ma wrote me years later:

"people said look at that brown baby, and

he looks like a high mountain babe."

Strangely, I suffered a heatstroke. Ma carried me to a nearby doctor who saved my life. I don't remember and didnt ask her, but she also wrote in another letter that she heard our neighbors say:

"M walks around the city with a dead baby."

Thats what she wrote me. She wrote me that she walked around town with a dead baby. That baby was I. Maybe Im weird, but I would not have told this to anyone, and certainly not to the dead baby.

I was cooked, nearly a goner."

-- Not Again! (seenit@ww2.com), December 18, 1999.