I've got a couple of lignering questions that seem to be hanging me up at this late hour. Some have been asked repeatedly, but the target seems to move and I still can't get a bead on them. I'm gonna ask these as separate threads to maintain some sense of "thread purity"?

First: In trivial terms (yes, no or a sentence at most), do you folks believe that the tell-tale signs of serious problems will be evident starting December 31 or will it unfold slowly (days/weeks)?

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 17, 1999

Answers

I think it depends on communication. I believe the probs are here now, but hiddin in vails of misinformation.

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 17, 1999.

I think that major signs will be obvious by 12/31/1999, not that panic or disruptions will be anywhere near their peaks in time or amplitude.

Incidentally, Dave, would you mind having a little more restraint with initiating threads? That's 4+ nearly adjacent threads started you just this A.M. As this quickly pushes major pieces off the bottom, it is not to be done as lightly as some forum posters do it. For this reason, I personally try to have something pretty substantial to post on the occasions I start a thread Thanks.

www.y2ksafeminnesota.com

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), December 17, 1999.

My apologies for the posts. Don't start new threads often. Figured I had built up some credits over the years.

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 17, 1999.

Dave-re. the credits-you have a bunch stored up. Don't let the fussy scolds deter you.

-- Get Real (gaf@mindspring.com), December 17, 1999.

I agree with Hokie.

*We've been experiencing brownouts and total blackouts, lasting 30 seconds to one minute. This is happening on a random basis and more so recently, even though the weather is clear and the power drain is no different from normal. Official AEP (American Electric Power) line is that "nothing is happening" or it's "our" system (this is happening both a work and home, BTW). Unofficial word is that there are Y2K remediation problems, some big ones.

*Bank One, whom we've been with for 10 years and who has never messed up our statements big time, has given us wrong statements (to the tune of $250 short) for the last two months. Now, we have $310 too much. I will meet with a manager later this afternoon.

*The Ohio Department of Motor Vehicles has been having problems with sending out the wrong titles (I personally know five people who didn't get the correct ones), and when they went in to complain, the computers were down and keep going down without warning, as of last week.

At work, we are also experiencing crashes without warning, this from a perviously stable system. This is in addition to the random power outages.

These are my first-hand observations. I have also heard and read about many more across the US and in England.

-- (ladybuckeye_59@yahoo.com), December 17, 1999.

After studying this situation for a year, reading posts, threads, articles, etc., I think a most likely scenario will be initial isolated breakdowns over the turn of the year, followed by increasing "domino effects". The three-week time-span seems reasonable. Appreciate your threads, Dave.

-- Judy (jtruett@gilanet.com), December 17, 1999.

I agree with Judy--based on evaluation of various offerings. Some initial failures (embeddeds and some software) with more glitches by the end of January (both data and due to shortages, such as oil).

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 17, 1999.

My expectation is that little or nothing of a serious nature will be evident on Dec. 31, unless you count the fact that many time zones still in Dec. 31 will be able to view time zones already in Jan. 1.

A lot of companies are planning shutdowns for Jan. 1. Nobody wants to be the first to leave the sauna and run out into the snow. Utilities and phones will be shoved out there first, to see how cold it is. The rest will come out on Jan. 2 or 3.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 17, 1999.

My yardstick: watch POWER. If it turns unreliable or goes off between Dec 31th and Jan 3rd, it will be bad suddenly. (Nothing is more jarring to many people than losing power during the winter.)

If it stays on, corrupted data and non-compliant computing will slowly gum up our lives.

-- W (me@home.now), December 17, 1999.

So as not to start a new thread for a relatively trivial observation, I got the following email about submitting grants to the NSF (National Science Foundation)...

Y2K NOTICE from C. Miller at NSF FastLane

"Although NSF is confident that its systems, including FastLane, will function normally after December 31, 1999, for those people preparing their proposals on FastLane for submission shortly after December 31, 1999, as an extra added precaution it may be prudent to print out a hard copy prior to the new year."

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), December 17, 1999.

Dave,

The world economy could crash tomorrrow. Notwithstanding Jan.1 don't forget that CRUSHING DEFLATION BY ITSELF has the power to transform society.

-- earl (ejrobill@pcpostal.com), December 17, 1999.