GIs, Cowboy Up !!greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
One of the hardest things in the world is to take an unpopular position and then withstand the slings and arrows of the opposition. One of the easiest things to do is be in the majority. Y2K has fascinatingly unique circumstances because the GIs can offer no physical evidence while the DGIs wake-up everyday and claim: 1) Nothing has happened. 2) We've made great progress. 3) We have no information to conclude there will be significant problems. 4) 99% of our industry's mission critical systems are Y2K ready (as ready as they're going to be!!! - couldn't help myself). 5) etc, etc etc...
In the aggregate the DGIs have a massive PR machine that daily churns out good news. It is truly is an injustice to believe that the DGIs are a sinister cabal of Nazis bent on crippling the masses. They represent organized business and government institutions that I must believe want to get past the Y2K storm and get back to the great society (no pun intended) we call the USA.
It is equally untrue that the GIs are loosely aligned extremists that sleep with the latest issue of Soldiers of Fortune. The GIs are definitely a "rag tag alliance of freedom fighters" with no coordination. Meaning that the message could never match that of the GIs.
All this so called slippage in the past several months is the logical outcome the situation I've described above. Day after day of DGI PR in the face of the obviously smaller GIs. To use a sports metaphor, they have the MO. Nothing is going to happen until January. So no matter what they do or say the situation is unchanged.
I'm a 4 to 6er on the 1 to 10 scale. Said differently I agree with Yardeni - some of the reasons appear below:
1) The State Department report last fall stating that the US would experience significant economic disruptions went unchallenged. 2) The Taiwan earthquake last fall scared the PC industry blue. 80% of the world's motherboards are built in Taiwan. For a brief time this part of the supply chain was wounded and the collective gasp was very educational for Y2K followers. 3) With number 2 above in mind the large manufacturing enterprises (GM, GE, Ford, etc) will be severely buffeted. 4) Much of the global petroleum supply chain has stated in official documents (10Qs, 10Ks, etc) that they will FOF. 5) Lastly, as a barometer of other large and widely distributed government systems, the statements by Medicare in reference to their service bureaus could be useful. Doctors use a handful of service bureaus to process their medical bills for submission to Medicare and private insurance companies. In newpaper reports this past fall it was clearly reported that most of the service bureau's and doctor's software are not Y2K compliant. If this payment channel collapses it will put a considerable strain on the healthcare industry.
If I'm wrong - big deal. My life will go on. I'll eat alot of tuna, rice and beans no matter what happens and then look forward to summer.
"Cowboy up" is a term that rodeo riders use when the get ready for the rodeo.
-- gary (email@example.com), December 17, 1999
Wow, two for two. It's kinda scary. This stuff makes sense. But Gary, where do you factor in the human nature variable in your equation? Even if short lived, it must be part of the overall Y2K problem, isn't it?
-- Michael (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 17, 1999.
I'm not sure what you mean. I was trying to address the effects of the constant DGI PR. It wears on the resolve of the GIs because of circumstance not merit. I think who was right will be resolved by the end of January.
-- gary (email@example.com), December 17, 1999.
Gary, It will be an interesting "ride" for sure. I am curious if you have a theory about what will be the trigger for the DGIs to make their mass conversion to GI (if this happens at all). I keep wondering "what" and "when" this will happen.
-- No Polly (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 17, 1999.
I've try to think of how events will unfold. Its nearly impossible there are too many variables. We can't go to the Y2K weather map and see the approaching low pressure!!!
IMHO the chances of losing civil order accross the country is small. I think the DGIs will begin to convert when the daily routine of their lives is altered. Infrastructure disruptions will be one possibility. Drinking water, sewage, power, or telephone could experience sufficent failure in sufficient locations to send the wake- up call. Most people I talk with look at these things and shrug their shoulders thinking they can do without (temporarily) if they must - but it won't be TEOTWAWKI. What they don't think about is the threat to the industrial supply chains.
We'll begin to hear about parts shortages overseas and domestically due to non-compliant factories and infrastructure failures (overseas). When sporadic reports turn to a shower, the equity markets will sell off and the flight to government debt will begin. In a couple months when the parts shortages become acute, people will be laid off.
Just as a note: Indonesia has a population of over 200,000,000 people and is the low cost producer of a vast amount of high tech equipment both assembly and fabrication. Indonesia is also reputed to be low on the ready scale.
That's my single threaded, two dimentional humble scenario.
-- gary (email@example.com), December 17, 1999.