N.Korea's Y2K Preparation a Mystery

Updated 3:07 AM ET December 16, 1999

By KYONG-HWA SEOK, Associated Press Writer

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - The world is often at a loss about what goes on in reclusive, militarized North Korea. How the communist country is preparing for the millennium bug is no exception.

The prevailing school of thought: North Korea isn't ready for Y2K glitches and will suffer damage, but is so low-tech that there won't be major disruptions.

That's a relief to South Korean military officials who say it's very unlikely that a weapons system in the heavily armed North will accidentally swing into action. The two countries have been at odds since they fought a war a half-century ago.

But some in South Korea remain disturbed about their northern neighbor's Y2K-preparedness.

"We know so little about what's going on there. How can we not be worried, knowing that one accident, such as a missile firing, could lead to a war?" said Baek San-hum, a shipping company executive.

Earlier this year, the U.S.-led U.N. military command in South Korea proposed that experts from both Koreas get together to discuss Y2K problems that could affect the North Korean military.

North Korea dismissed the offer, saying it was slander aimed at denigrating its armed forces. Pyongyang has spent lavishly on its 1.1-million member military despite the famine and floods of recent years that forced it to appeal for outside food aid.

In a November report, South Korea's defense ministry said the chance of an inadvertent missile launch in the North was minimal, partly because Pyongyang's military hardware is outdated.

"There is little possibility that North Korea will fire a missile by accident because of the Y2K problem," a ministry official said on customary condition of anonymity. A Pentagon official, who also did not reveal his name, said human error would have to be a factor.

Most sophisticated weapons in North Korea, such as Scud missiles, were imported from the former Soviet Union or, like the Nodong and Taepodong missiles, were based on Soviet technology and built locally.

The South Korean report cited a recent letter from the Russian government to Seoul which says Soviet weapons in North Korea's arsenal do not have Y2K problems because most are not computerized.

"Based on the letter, we assume that North Korea's weapons system mostly depends on manual operation, not computers," the report says.

The millennium bug stems from programming in older software that expresses only the last two digits of a year. Uncorrected systems cannot distinguish between 2000 and 1900 and might suffer complications after Dec. 31.

North Korea's civilian computer technology is believed to be outdated because of a lack of imports, but that doesn't necessarily mean it is more susceptible to Y2K failures.

South Korea says the North can annually produce 30,000 personal computers and has held annual computer exhibitions since 1990. It runs several computer engineering schools and institutions, including one with 800 researchers that is developing Korean word processors and other software.

International Monitoring, a British technology consultant, said North Korea was "moderately prepared" for Y2K. South Korea, which is far more dependent on computers, was said to be well prepared.

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Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 16, 1999

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N.Korea said to be behind on Y2K work

Friday, 17 December 1999 8:36 (GMT), (UPI Focus), By CHARLES LEE

SEOUL, South Korea, Dec. 17 (UPI) - North Korea is not fully prepared for year 2000 computer glitches that could affect its weapons and command systems, a South Korean military expert said Friday.

"North Korea's heavily armed military seems not ready for potential fallout of the millennium bug, which has prompted concerns about malfunctions among missiles or other weapons," said Lee Jae-wook, senior researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul.

Worst-case scenarios involve an accidental launch of a North Korean ballistic missiles, he said in a report.

"North Korea's Soviet-made weapons system can be affected by a minor computer glitch," he said.

Lee proposed talks between North and South Korean experts and establishment of a Seoul-Pyongyang hotline that could help avoid a potential catastrophe.

South Korea fears the North's large military does not have funds or technology to deal with the Y2K bug. Seoul has asked Russia to help North Korea's military make sure its computers don't go haywire on Jan. 1.

The South Korean military is required to check the preparations of its missile attack warning system, Lee said, adding, "The South should be prepared to address any unexpected situation."

North Korea is said to have been slower to address the Y2K problems than many other countries because of the government's money crunch.

Famine-scarred North Korea has not publicly declared its state of readiness regarding the Y2K bug.

South Koreans' concerns increased recently, as the North has deployed ground-to-ground missiles just 3 miles (5 km) north of the demilitarized zone that separate the two Koreas, which remain technically at war. Seoul, the capital of South Korea, is 35 miles (56 km) from the border.

Earlier this year, the U.S.-led U.N. Command in Seoul proposed that experts from both Koreas get together to discuss Y2K problems. North Korea dismissed the offer, however, saying it was slander aimed at denigrating its armed forces.

"This is intended to create the impression that the quality of the North's military equipment is low and its control system outdated so as to impair the international prestige of the north's army," the North's official Central News Agency said.

But some defense analysts said the impoverished communist country is so low-tech that there would be no major disruptions. In November, South Korea's Defense Ministry said the chance of an inadvertent missile launch by the North was minimal, partly because the North's military hardware is outdated.

Meanwhile, Seoul's Defense Ministry said Sunday that all computer systems deemed critical to South Korean national defense would be safe from Y2K glitches.

A task force has identified hundreds of potential Y2K trouble spots in weapon and information systems but it was fully prepared to address them, a ministry spokesman said. The ministry plans to shut down most computer systems during the date changeover to avoid possible problems.

The spokesman said there was no possibility of accidental missile firing or other such mishap.

-- O O (O O@O O.O O), December 17, 1999.