I'm surprised this one hasn't been posted here already...

http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/1999/12/15/timfgnrus02001.html?1124027

Chernobyl 'is millennial time bomb'

FROM ROGER BOYES IN BERLIN

CHERNOBYL and two other ageing Soviet bloc nuclear reactors may help to fulfil prophecies of millennial disaster if work is not done swiftly to adapt their computers.

The head of the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency, Muhammad al-Baradei, has identified three nuclear plants that are lagging seriously behind in preparing for the Year 2000 software problem: the Medzamer reactor in Armenia and the Ignalina reactor in Lithu-ania as well as the still-functioning reactor in Chernobyl.

The locations have long been a headache for Western experts. Even after considerable investment, the safety standards are well behind those in the West. The Medzamer plant, consisting of two pressurised light water reactors, is in an earthquake zone.It had to be closed in early 1989 after an earthquake, but by 1995 it was reopened. Armenia is dependent on nuclear-generated electricity. Before the re-opening, residents of Yerevan, the capital, were rationed to two hours of electricity a day.

There are Western worries about the plant's ability to withstand another earthquake, about the level of staff training and the plant emergency planning. But Armenia's dependence on the reactor is such that politicians refused to close it for tests or maintenance.

Computers are central to nuclear plant safety: they gather, compare and contrast data received from the different stages of electricity production and monitor temperatures and possible leakages.

Dr al-Baradei said the "millennium bug" problem in the atomic energy sector of the former Soviet Union was due to lack of money - maintenance is chronically underfinanced - and lack of adequate planning.

The nuclear plant that attracts the most attention is Chernobyl in Ukraine. It was there that a meltdown in 1986 triggered the world's worst nuclear accident. The people of Ukraine and Belarus are still feeling the consequences of that disaster; much agricultural land is irradiated and there has been a sharp increase in certain illnesses.

The Chernobyl reactors are of the RBMK type - graphite-moderated channel reactors. There are more than a dozen such reactors still in operation in the former Soviet Union and the chief concern is about the lack of a sufficiently large steel or concrete containment structure to block large releases of radiation. At Chernobyl, the plant's accident localisation system could not cope with the force of the explosion.

Despite these and other misgivings, one Chernobyl reactor has just reopened. It was closed for six days after leaks were discovered in the secondary cooling system for radioactive water. Two other reactors have been out of operation because of serious technical defects. The fourth, which blew up in 1986, is buried under a concrete sarcophagus.

A Chernobyl-style reactor is in operation in Lithuania. The European Commission has demanded a closure plan for the Ignalina reactor, threatening delays in Lithuania's entry to the European Union unless it complies. The first block has been active since 1983, the second since 1987. Together they account for 85 per cent of the republic's electricity. For the Lithuanians, the plant guarantees their energy, and therefore political independence from Russia. Electricity exported to Latvia and Belarus is also profitable. There is no hurry to close the plant.

Despite the safety improvements, introduced largely with the help of the Swedes, the West is growing increasingly nervous about the reliability of the plant.

[the story includes a graphic map at this point]

Weak links in the chain reaction

The key Western reservations are:

Accident mitigation systems are very limited.

If cooling water is lost the reactors produce faster and less stable nuclear chain reactions.

All plants have inadequate fire protection.

Electrical and safety systems are poorly separated.

There is limited capability for suppressing steam in the graphite stack.

Only precise computerised control can deal with these problems. This will be under threat if the "millennium bug" problem is not solved in the next fortnight.

-- Anonymous, December 16, 1999

Answers

Thanks, Drew - just what I needed today. ;-)

Were I a betting man (hey, you didn't see me at the tables in Las Vegas, did you?), I'd wager that the operators of these plants will cross their fingers, and hope for the best. There's little chance that any of these facilities will be shut down prior to rollover. It's pretty darn cold in that neck of the woods right now, and these plants are "base load" for their respective regions. They can't get by without the power. That's why the undamaged Chernobyl unit was restarted in the first place.

The ex-Soviet bloc countries have been very emphatic that they're ready for any challenges. "We'll fix it if it fails," has been the mantra.

Bottom line: the plants have to be operating at this time of year, or people freeze to death. So, I think the governments in these countries are faced with very few options, and none of the options are particularly good. I do not envy the position in which the decision makers find themselves. They have little choice but to operate the plants and hope for the best. In as much as the international community has no jurisdictional authority over these facilities, at this point in the game (15 days and counting), there's little we can do but hope and pray that the gamble pays off.

Which way did you say the prevailing winds blow?

-- Anonymous, December 16, 1999

Heck, Rick, I didn't want you sleeping easy or anything :)

Yeah, I agree with your analysis. They don't have much choice.

And the trade winds- hmmm- New Jersey? Or Virginia? :)

You know, when you think about it, it really isn't funny...

-- Anonymous, December 16, 1999

Drew, did you catch Brian Williams on MSNBC quoting an engineer at Chernobyl- "I won't be caught any where near this plant on December 31st.?

-- Anonymous, December 17, 1999

Ronnie- hey, I was just thinking about you the other day.

Wow, no, I missed that quote- but sure wish I hadn't. I often catch Williams' show in the evenings; too bad I missed that one.

-- Anonymous, December 17, 1999