Y2K Forecasting and Weather -- Family Ramifications of Wrong Forecastsgreenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
It seems to me that as we all try to forecast the impact of Y2K (and so many threads here lately solicit forecasts on the 1-10 scale) we should remember that Y2K and the weather are related. Why? Well, it seems that weather is one of those topics that you can always use with which to engage a conversation. Seeing how this forum is devoted to discussing Y2K it seems that it has something in common then with the weather. It is something that could be discussed anywhere, just like the weather. Most everyone can have an opinion even if its an uninformed opinion.
Also, weather forecasting can involve the notion of percentages. So too with Y2K. In fact, notice how the 2 differing camps can relate their forecasts to a weather counterpart.
Pollies -- ___% chance of Sunny skies and mild temperatures today. High of 72.
Doomers -- ___% chance of Clouds and storms today; or -- Hurricane Warning in effect.
Of course, the Doomer forecast gets to use more exciting prospects like Hurricanes, Tornados, Storms, Hail, High winds, Dangerous lightning, etc. Does this mean that the Doomers have a PR advantage over the Pollies? Well perhaps, but then again, perhaps not. After all, a Doomer forecast can create a backlash effect among the great undecided or uninformed groups.
So with that in mind, perhaps we can provide a little advice to both camps as they make their final forecasts.
Pollies... perhaps you should spice up the terminology with some action words.
"Sunny" is good. But what else can we use to describe the Pollyanna position? Something to excite the masses and convert the Doomers? Hmmm. Well maybe there isn't anything else. Let's face it, Sunshine just doesn't stir the adrenalin like Doomer terminology.
Doomer's...The term Hurricane has perhaps been over-utilized. Perhaps we could move to F-5 tornadoes or twisters? Severe Storm Warning... or Tornado Warning has been issued. You know the drill don't you? With large hail, damaging winds, dangerous lightning and flooding rains." Maybe figure out a way to work in the term "Gale force winds"... ... or we could say "sustained winds of ____ mph." ... and of course the usual follow thru recommendations to go to a basement or place of shelter, avoid windows and doorways or if you're outside in the open seek a low lying area to avoid a tornado or stay in your car for a severe storm and don't drive thru low lying areas
The real fun part though is dealing with the numbers scale. I personally don't like the 1-10 scale. I prefer the simple Percent-ages scale. 50% chance of _______ . Or 30% or 80%. Or even use 0% chance... or No chance. Of course when using zero chances you should be careful. I recall an incident a few years ago that my wife will never let me live down. We watched the late TV news and weather. The forecaster said there wasn't any rain for 500 miles. i.e. not a chance of rain. So, we left the windows up and didn't bother to go out and roll up the car windows. About 3 am... we awoke to some rather disturbing claps of severe thunder and lightning followed by heavy wind and rain. To this day, my wife still recalls that phrase from the weatherman... "no rain as far away as 500 miles"... She can do that, I guess. She didn't have to get up, go out and roll up the windows, unplug the appliances and bring in a soaked cat.
Will Y2K be the same way? I suspect that in some households where opinions on Y2K are divided some spouses are going to be very upset with their mate who took the alternate view that didn't pan out. I wonder what it will be like for the Polly Husbands who didn't believe their wives and prevented prepping andY2K turns out to be the storm of the millenium. Or for Polly wives who prevented their husbands from prepping. BUT if on the other hand, Y2K isn't even a bump in the road... what will be the fate of a Doomer wife who forced her Polly husband to prepare? Or the Doomer husband who forced the family to prepare against the wishes of a Polly wife.
What of plans put on hold by Doomers and their spouses and the resentment that ensues if Y2K turns out to be less than even a BITR? Also too, there will be resentment from the perception that Doomer preparations should never have been made, money wasted, opportunities lost. Not everyone, mind you... I'm just referring to families where the spousal opinions are split and we know there are many. We know that already many divorces came about due to Y2K even before the event. But undoubtedly more will result thereafter one way or the other.
What will be the fate of Pollys and their spouses who didn't prep and society collapses with lots of people suffering (or maybe even die) as a result. How will the spouses relate to each other in those circumstances. Will the wronged spouse be forgiven as they may face Severe hardships or starvation or even death?
I can predict one thing... accurately... There will be a lot of post Y2K divorces (abandonments if TEOTWAWKI) related directly to Y2K no matter what the outcome of the rollover. I think we could put the percentages of that at 100%, but of course, it won't be for everyone, just those who figured WRONG.
So that is my prediction ... (high divorce rates among divided families) and this prediction is a flat-out guaranteed winner. No doubt about it. Not one iota. That is unless someone can convince me otherwise.
On the actual storm? Well, I'd say its at least a 50/50 proposition for no weather. Of course I'm a member of the Local Weather Bureau union Local Thirty point oh two and falling. Nothing like riding the fence is there? :-)
Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. OR Prepare for the best and Pray it doesn't get worse.
-- Dick Moody (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 16, 1999
So that is my prediction ... (high divorce rates among divided families) and this prediction is a flat-out guaranteed winner.
FYI, it's already happening around here, Dick. Several of my friends have left their spouses when the spouse refused to move from NYC or LA. They packed up their kids, brought them back to Ohio, and sued for divorce -- to be fair, I think suing for divorce was more to bring the partner to his or her senses about the seriousness of the move. Both women and men have moved back -- this is cutting across gender lines. I'll add that several other DWGI friends say that the returnees absolutely hated LA/NYC and used Y2K as an excuse to do what they wanted to do anyway.
I'm not taking sides at this point: I'm just trying to be as much help as I can in the time that remains.
-- (email@example.com), December 16, 1999.
I think Y2K will be used an excuse for getting out of a bad marriage, not the cause.
-- (Polly@troll.com), December 16, 1999.
Boy... did I ever misunderstand the subject line. I thought this was going to be about the risks we face if the weather forecasting services (heavily technology dependent) fail, so that we no longer get advance warning of "real" 3-day winter storms, hurricanes, tornados etc.
Another topic for another day, I guess.
As for families... also consider the effect on extended families. Who among us is not considered the crazy in our family. There are bound to be lasting effects from the GI/DGI rift no matter what the outcome.
-- Linda (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 16, 1999.
"So that is my prediction ... (high divorce rates among divided families) and this prediction is a flat-out guaranteed winner. No doubt about it. Not one iota. That is unless someone can convince me otherwise". Comments to above~ Provided the current materialistic lifestyle is maintained i will agree with you on this prediction. The "BITR" possiblility is long gone ( IMO ) ,and with that priorities will change. Depending of the severity of problems we will all face it make actually draw families together.
-- kevin (email@example.com), December 16, 1999.
From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California
On the other hand... marriages that probably would have naturally collapsed this year may be holding together in the face of hard times, even if only one spouse is a GI.
-- Dancr (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 16, 1999.
Oh yes, I agree... but I guess I was trying to bring home the fact that I think it will really be a factor on the otherside of rollover.
Sorry if the title seemed a little misleading. Sometimes you just don't quite know how to put something in a title.
I was trying to point out that no matter how Y2K turns out BITR or TEOTWAWKI there will be this Divorce factor related to how folks related to Y2K before the fact.
Dancer... Yes, this may be true too.
-- Dick Moody (email@example.com), December 16, 1999.