My forecasts for the year 2,000 ( focusing on Y2K's impact on the world and its infrastructure, social and economic order, U.S. election, etc.greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
My forecasts for the year 2,000 ( focusing on Y2K's impact on the world and its infrastructure, social and economic order, U.S. election, etc. (*These are not the results of some crystal ball) 12-14-1999
As usual, the following is one man's opinion and educated guess, based upon many writers' sentiments and speculations. I could be wrong. I hope I am wrong, because these are sad even tragic events. After about 1,000 hours of study in Y2K, this is my best forecasts.
1. 80% chance that computers will malfunction or stop working throughout the world. 0% chance it will be the end of the world. These problems will not occur just during the first week of 2,000. The domino effects may not be felt until the 2nd to 3rd week of January. In America 60% chance of regional power outages, some lasting average of 5-7 days. 70% chance rolling brownouts in many areas but only 20% chance the electric grid will be totally down . In numerous communities, water will become unsafe to drink and sewage problems will exist. 2. 70% chance gas will be rationed. Regardless, gas price will go up drastically, beginning January. 3. There will be an average 5-7 days of no telephone service nationwide in some communities. A few long distance companies will be affected. 4. In America and throughout the world, some Government services assistance will be interrupted or delayed. Hospitals will have significant problems . 5% of businesses here and abroad will fail . The blame game will begin in earnest. Lawsuits will skyrocket. 70% chance of a run on several banks here and especially abroad maybe as early as the last week of 1999 and especially during January, 2,000. Several banks here in America may fail. 5. 70% chance there will be many more brutal massacres at US schools, public places , and maybe a government building, resulting in outrageous calls for ban of firearms sale and even national turning in for guns or worse. One or more doomsday cult will be attacked/neutralized. More doomsday cultists commiting suicide in several parts of the world. There will be several major riots in big cities/nations like New York city, L.A.,, Detroit, Mich., Oakland, Richmond and San Francisco, CA., state of Mass. , London, Major trouble spots will be Jerusalem, Indonesia, Russia Certain right-wing extremists and Christian leaders will get blamed. 6. Starting 2,000, America will enter a dangerous era. 70% chance a major terrorist act will be carried out this year. (50% chance two or more will occur simultaneously in more than one US cities). 60% chance it will involve a neutron bomb and/or anthrax (or some biological/chemical agent). Terrorists will likely hit Jerusalem, Us installations in Europe and Europe itself. 50% chance the sacred Muslim Dome of the Rock will be severely damaged. There will be crisis in Korea and Russia and Middle East. 7 . 50% chance of a civil or racial war, higher if the government confiscate handguns. 8. I think there is a 50% chance martial law will be declared in several cities during January. 60% chance during the first 4 months. 70% chance before the November Election. Quite a few other countries will also declare martial law. National guards and Marines will be sent in to some U.S. cities , at the peak maybe 50-120 cities, mostly big cities. Some will be foreign troops and cops. 9. 50% chance one to two nuclear accidents will occur in the Northern hemisphere probably one in America. Some chemical plants will have problems, accidents. 10. 70% chance that scores will die in America alone by June 2000. 70% chance hundreds more will die in the rest of the world. Some will die from untreated illnesses or frozen or starved to death. Some will die because of unsafe handling of propane, gas, and generators 11. As to when the rush to buy supplies will occur. 50 chance by Dec. 26th , 70% chance by Dec.30. But the longest lines may not happen until the first 3 months of 2,000. 12. There will be above-average computer-related disruptions in China, Vietnam , Japan, Canada, Britain, Germany, Italy and especially Africa, Central and South America, Middle East and Eastern Europe like Latvia, etc. 13. 40% chance The U.S. stock market will correct during the last 2 weeks of December, 60% chance will drop 5-10% during January to February. 70% chance by April. 50% chance it will drop a total of 20-30% during 2,000. 5% chance it will totally CRASH. 90% chance that next years stock market performance won't be as good as 1,999. 60% chance it will turn into a bear market. 70% chance gold price will make another run up above $300. Many stocks, including utilities and Hi-tech stocks with Y2K problems will drop 30-40% in value. Some U.S stocks like IBM, Lockeed Martin, AT&T, GM may do rather well overall. 70% chance MUCH OF THE World will go through a recession to depression during 2,000. Overall, Asia and Latin America will have a rough time economically. 14. 70% chance George Bush Jr. will become the President, 30% chance McCain will win, 40% chance Al Gore will win, 30% chance Bill Bradley will win the Presidency. 20% chance Clinton will stay for a third term, because of martial law. 15. 60% chance China will flex her military muscle somewhere in the Far East, especially Taiwan. Higher chance if America has her hands full of Y2K-related social problems.
This is strictly educational only. Please consult with an expert before you take any action. No one knows how long and serious disruptions will be.
-- Ray (Ray@abc.com), December 14, 1999
I feel your forecasts are a bit too mild, maybe you don't want to cause more fear. But in many points, I agree.
-- Joseph (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 14, 1999.
"70% chance George Bush Jr. will become the President, 30% chance McCain will win, 40% chance Al Gore will win, 30% chance Bill Bradley will win the Presidency. 20% chance Clinton will stay for a third term, because of martial law."
Maybe I am just dumb, but isn't this 190%??? Other than that, sound like pretty good predictions!
-- IMREADYRU (email@example.com), December 14, 1999.
Ray, the truth is out--you're a polly.
-- StanTheMan (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 14, 1999.
"Scores" or "hundreds" will die? A bit polly, don't you think?
-- ivan (email@example.com), December 14, 1999.
13. 40% chance The U.S. stock market will correct during the last 2 weeks of December, 60% chance will drop 5-10% during January to February. 70% chance by April. 50% chance it will drop a total of 20- 30% during 2,000. 5% chance it will totally CRASH. 90% chance that next years stock market performance won't be as good as 1,999. 60% chance it will turn into a bear market.
What most people fail to realize is that if the broad market were cut in half (50% decline) IT WOULD STILL BE OVERVALUED!!! (This needs to be shouted).
The S&P 500 historically trades at around 13 times earnings. It presently trades at about 32 times earnings.
At 'the bottom' the market generally trades at about 6-8 times earnings.
Therefore, I predict a 75% drop in equity values over the next 12 months. And, of course, that's being optimistic (it assumes that the market is open.) The high fliers will do substantially worse.
-- Me (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 14, 1999.
A very thoughtful post. You're braver than I to put percentages on events occurring. While I don't agree with several of the points (mainly martial law and elections), I can see where you've come up with the numbers from the posted research on the various topics, and I think that your educated guesses are quite reasonable given the data we have.
Briefly, on martial law -- I officials are going to continue playing games with the language: it'll be a "state of emergency," not martial law, although in practice, it wouldn't surprise me if it turns out to be the same thing.
-- (email@example.com), December 14, 1999.
Only two things certain in life -- death and taxes...well, at least death.
-- Dave (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 14, 1999.
That's "I think" -- geez! ):
-- (email@example.com), December 14, 1999.
Yeah, really, "scores?" Don't go out on a limb here. Keep in mind that over 40,000 have died in this country just from car accidents (O great god auto): who knows, death rates may go DOWN in the event of oil shortages.
-- Spidey (free@last.Amen), December 14, 1999.
What are the odds monkeys will fly out of my arse in 2000?
-- T. Tubchun (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 14, 1999.
I put the chances that monkeys will fly out of someone's arse at somewhere in the neighborhood of 190%. But I don't want to cause you or your proctologist undue concern. It might not be you. And if it is, the monkeys might only fly out of your arse for 5 to 7 days, causing brief discomfort but no long-term consequences.
More important is the effect the increased monkey population might have on a limited potable water supply....
-- Dan (Dan@abc.com), December 14, 1999.
I think civilization is on the brink. We will steadily devolve for at least 40 years. Ultimately many societies will return to the horse and mule.
I base this outcome on the arguments of others who have relentlessly studied economic history and related fields. Also, the Bible points to devolution.
The significance of Bible can no longer be discounted by the academics and intelligentsia. The Old Testament equidistant letter sequence codes are numerous, amazing and mind boggling. Of one thing be certain, authors of the Old Testament had the utterly awesome power to encode current and historical events beneath the plain text. Some have concluded this The Signature of God.
-- earl (email@example.com), December 14, 1999.
....what amazes me is how ANYONE can possibly imagine our self- serving, instant-gratification, me-first society as having the maturity level to hold together against such odds.
-- mike (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 15, 1999.
Thanks for the post. Where am I? Toto, I don't hink we're in Kansas anymore....
-- (email@example.com), December 18, 1999.
Tubchun - bored with hamsters already???
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), December 18, 1999.
People, PLEASE stop trying to shove me up your ass. What is it with humans, rubber tubes, hamsters and a--holes ?.
Find another hobby people, we're tired of the abuse!
-- hamster (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 18, 1999.