Now that we are under 20 days to go to 1/1/2000, I thought I would take a stab at a timeline of how long it might take for Y2K effects to reveal themselves. It's a bit crude and simplistic. Additions or corrections welcomed.

The Infomagic scenario (a "10+") rested strongly on the theory that massive simultaneous failures would occur, especially in the so-called iron triangle (utilities, banking, communication). We should know within 3 days of rollover if this happened domestically. If not, then IMHO a "10" is not in the cards.

We should have information within the first week about any massive failures of basic services in other countries. By the end of the first 10 days we should be hearing whether there are any spectacular failures in JIT systems.

If 90% of the world has the same amount of heat, light and water on January 10th as they have today, I think there would be enough information to rule out anything above a "7".

For the rest of January it should be evident whether a wave of economic inefficiency is gathering steam. Multiple wrong billings. Late deliveries. Spot shortages. Rising prices. Endless busy signals. If our normal daily life appears to be running (mostly) smoothly up to January 31, we should be able to knock the "7" down to a "6" at worst.

Problems in long supply chains a might not be visible until late February. Any spike in business failures or unemployment could be hidden until mid-March. If the stock market bubble stays intact to the end of March, it still could burst -- but it probably wouldn't be Y2K-related.

IMO, the first 50 days should be long enough to decide (roughly) whether Y2K is anything over a 5. By then the margin of predictive error should be down to about plus or minus 1.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 13, 1999

Answers

Brian:

Good question!!

I would also like to add a question to it. If the US's main oil suppliers go down on Jan 1st and they look to be down for an extended period of time, how long would it take before we really starting feeling the crunch?

-- Familyman (prepare@home.com), December 13, 1999.

Let's not forget pharmaceuticals. Most hospitals and clinics have a 15-30 day supply on hand. If the suppliers of the raw materials (90% of which are overseas and more vulnerable) can't deliver the goods to our pharmaceutical companies, we probably won't start seeing medicine shortages until the latter part of January. For what it's worth.

-- rob minor (rbminor@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

You will know by the ticker at Wall Street and by how many quarts of lantern oil you have left. In that order.

-- Rob (maxovrdrv51@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

My main goal for next year is to return to my work in the Philippines. I've put off the decision of whether and when to buy a ticket until January 5th - (and the flight would be at least 2 weeks after that). If things don't look bad enough by then to stop me, then I doubt they'll get too bad later. I agree with your statement about if 90% of the world has light/heat/water by the 10th then anything over a 7 is unlikely.

-- Steve (s.hartzler@usa.net), December 13, 1999.

I think certainly I will feel better if there are no visible problems Jan 1st. I'll feel even better after the first week and if we get to the end of Jan, I think our infrastructure should hold. That is if there are no major problems reported anywhere in the world (at least those countries we trade with directly or indirectly). If there are supply problems lets say in Europe, or infrastructure problems, then as you can see imports/exports are a problem. Things will slow down, causing economic problems.

Supply problems a few months down the road is a possibility, but at least if the infrastructure holds that will be some very good news. Let's hope this happens.

-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), December 13, 1999.

Brian,

We are currently operating in a 2 environment.

Should it get any worse than it currently is, the herd (the DGI's and DWGI's who have bought the propaganda...hook, line and sinker from TPTB) will suddenly wake up. They will immediately attempt to accomplish in hours and days the same level of preparedness we GI's have spent months/years accomplishing.

At that point, it will be...TEOTWAWKI.

I contend it goes from a 2 to...the unthinkable. Nothing in-between.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 13, 1999.

>> If the US's main oil suppliers go down on Jan 1st and they look to be down for an extended period of time, how long would it take before we really starting feeling the crunch? <<

This question would be better answered by one of the resident oil marketeers. If one of them shows up, I'd defer to their expertise.

If *ALL* of the USA's main suppliers went down without any idea how long it would take to get them up again, scarcity pricing would take hold within hours. Serious scarcity pricing. Think $10 gallon or more by the end of the next day.

If good news did not come from those suppliers *very quickly*, I would then expect gas and oil rationing to follow in the first 6-8 days, enforced by the National Guard. Plus the usual black market developing within hours of the announcement of rationing.

So, essentially, we'd "feel the crunch" almost instantly. IMHO.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 13, 1999.

>> Should it get any worse than it currently is, the herd [...] will suddenly wake up. <<

Your apparent assumption here is that a very high percentage of the remaining DGIs and DWGIs have almost precisely the same threshold for turning GI, and that this common threshold is a "2.5" or thereabouts.

I can't say this sounds right to me.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 13, 1999.

It is my opinion that we will see some failures early on the everyone government and corporations will run the spin again and say they have a handle on it and again we will believe. The ones who have led us so far believe the full effects wont be seen until June maybe July as data begins to corrupt as it travels to non-compliant computers and/or the fixes didnt work or were insufficient. In the mean time we will face problems as they occur. That is the best anyone can do.

-- Susan Barrett (sue59@bellsouth.net), December 13, 1999.

"The Infomagic scenario (a "10+") rested strongly on the theory that massive simultaneous failures would occur, especially in the so- called iron triangle (utilities, banking, communication). We should know within 3 days of rollover if this happened domestically. If not, then IMHO a "10" is not in the cards. "

---allow me, please, to disagree with your premise?

---If the iron triangle does not go down within three days, it may still go down; it may, in fact, however, take 6 months or more, of slow, non-simultaneaous, events, all of which may lead to a "massive failure".

---Thus, I belive that we cannot rule out a 10 until we have watched the trends for some time; obviously , if the trends appear to be non- catastrophic, then things may not be so bad; if the trends tend to go down, then we may see a 10 "develope", rather than happen all at once.

"We should have information within the first week about any massive failures of basic services in other countries. By the end of the first 10 days we should be hearing whether there are any spectacular failures in JIT systems. "

---I believe that the same comments are appropriate for JIT: it may take some time for a 'devolution' to begin, and for the snowball to gain enough mass to become self-sustaining in its motion.

"If 90% of the world has the same amount of heat, light and water on January 10th as they have today, I think there would be enough information to rule out anything above a "7". "

---Sorry, I just cannot agree. [would like to, but can't...same argument: time]

"For the rest of January it should be evident whether a wave of economic inefficiency is gathering steam. Multiple wrong billings. Late deliveries. Spot shortages. Rising prices. Endless busy signals. If our normal daily life appears to be running (mostly) smoothly up to January 31, we should be able to knock the "7" down to a "6" at worst. "

---again, I think that the timing you are proposing is a bit too compressed; I still believe that a certain amount of time may be required for the snowball effect to occur.

"Problems in long supply chains a might not be visible until late February. Any spike in business failures or unemployment could be hidden until mid-March. If the stock market bubble stays intact to the end of March, it still could burst -- but it probably wouldn't be Y2K-related.

IMO, the first 50 days should be long enough to decide (roughly) whether Y2K is anything over a 5. By then the margin of predictive error should be down to about plus or minus 1. "

---I don't really disagree with your analysis, in fact, I like it; I just think it may take more like six to nine months of devolving events [hell!] in increasing numbers, to create a snowball effect IF it is to occur; - and for us to really know whether the trend line is up or down.

Wish it weren't so long, but I have that sense that this Y2K thing is not going to reveal itself to us quite so easily as you are suggesting.

Good thoughts!

Perry

-- Perry Arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), December 13, 1999.

Brian,

Between December 26 and the first few days of January, every grocery store in the US will be cleaned out.

When the herd gets wind about all the railroads, airports, chemical plants, subways, ports, oil and gas pipelines, refineries, etc, who have already announced they will be shutting down on December 30-31, 1999, then some of the herd "Get It" and immediately bolt.

I contend the majority of the herd doesn't YET know about all these "announced closings"...the reason is due to Corporate owned media/government imposing a "news nibble" (something between a "news bite" and a "news blackout"...aired during "off viewing hours") on the reporting of these tell-tale Y2K problematic signs.

For the rest of the herd, all it will take is a report on the first major power outage; chemical plant catastrophy; nuclear melt down; etc, due to Y2K anywhere in the world. The herd...DGI's and DWGI's...will bolt towards the stores to purchase what GI's have spent months/years purchasing. This will result in the JIT delivery system crashing in just a couple of days, further resulting in mass panic by the DGI's and DWGI's all across the United States.

The blame for this will rest squarely at the feet of Corporations and Government who for the last year or so have outsmarted themselves by singing the "3 day storm", "all is well", "we are ready" "we don't expect..." chants, lulling the general population (herd) into a false sense of security.

Maybe we deserve this?

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 13, 1999.

I contend it goes from a 2 to...the unthinkable. Nothing in- between. -- GoldReal
Yes - I could see this as a possibility. One thunder clap and the Herd begins to Run.

-- Dan G (earth_changes@hotmail.com), December 13, 1999.

GoldReal: I don't expect any kind of panic until after the first of the year, and perhaps not even then. Never underestimate the complaceny of the American public, narcotized by decades of television and a public school system aimed at the lowest common denominator.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 13, 1999.

>> This will result in the JIT delivery system crashing in just a couple of days, further resulting in mass panic by the DGI's and DWGI's all across the United States. <<

But this scenario doesn't really address what happens next. You seem to presume that if "the herd panics" that everything is all over. But, what if the shelves are empty on January 1, but come January 3 the food processing plants are functioning at 80% or better, the trains are running at 80% efficiency or better, and there is electricity, water, diesel fuel, and so on?

Seems to me that the shelves fill back up under those conditions. If you say panicky herd == riots and riots == social collapse, I just have to ask, what percentage of the population do you envision rioting? How soon? Why? Just in the cities? Why can't this be addressed short of a full-blown "10"?

You are leaving WAY too much out of your analysis for me to understand what you are postulating.

I guess I have more faith in the ability of grownups who work full time jobs to keep their acts together under the adversity of "empty shelves". For a "10" to happen, there has to be a lot more than a simple panic on January 1 by "the herd", as you call them. There has to be real, catastrophic infrastructure failure, not just an overwhelmed JIT food distribution system.

I suppose we can agree to disagree. Fell free to add anything more you left out. I'm interested in hearing your full reasoning.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), December 13, 1999.

cody,

Ever see the public rush to buy hurricane supplies? I have, many times. It's not a pretty sight, even for those of us who are use to it.

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Brian,

[You seem to presume that if "the herd panics" that everything is all over. But, what if the shelves are empty on January 1, but come January 3 the food processing plants are functioning at 80% or better, the trains are running at 80% efficiency or better, and there is electricity, water, diesel fuel, and so on?]

Most businesses and some stores will be closed January 1, 2000. As reports of outages and failures in other parts of the world start showing up on the herd's television sets, they will begin to question their decision not to prepare. Most will decide to "run up to the store" and buy a few gallons of water...some canned soups...rice and beans, etc., "just in case". Should the store be closed, their sense of panic will increase. "Now what?"

1) Try another store.

2) Break in and take what you need.

3) Go back home empty handed.

If they try another store, it may be closed, or if open, it may be out of water, beans, rice, etc. Now, do they go back to the store that was closed? Sure they do...if for no other reason than to "check and see if they decided to open." When they get back there, if the store is still closed, they will be "tempted" to break in and take what they need. Some will, others will simply return home empty handed.

Still, it would not surprise me if upon their return to the store, they found it already being looted, at which point they too take what they "need".

[Seems to me that the shelves fill back up under those conditions. If you say panicky herd == riots and riots == social collapse, I just have to ask, what percentage of the population do you envision rioting? How soon? Why? Just in the cities? Why can't this be addressed short of a full-blown "10"?]

Every food store in every city in the United States will be empty by January 2, 2000. It's not hard to comprehend how this could happen if you have ever seen the public rush to buy hurricane supplies. I have. It's a mad blitz...panic buying...shelves are picked bone clean.

The reason they won't be restocked "tomorrow" is because the stores won't be secure. The windows will be broken from looters...cash registers will be stolen...stock rooms will be cleaned out. The store will need at least a week just to repair, and that's under "normal" conditions. There are many other factors to consider as well...some employees will fear for their own safety and not show up for work or stay home to protect their family; electrical outages; martial law; etc.

[I guess I have more faith in the ability of grownups who work full time jobs to keep their acts together under the adversity of "empty shelves".]

Again, you underestimate the reaction of the herd. I know how they act when danger threatens. They panic. They buy everything in sight. They act irrational.

[For a "10" to happen, there has to be a lot more than a simple panic on January 1 by "the herd", as you call them. There has to be real, catastrophic infrastructure failure, not just an overwhelmed JIT food distribution system.]

Brian, go look in the mirror and say, "If on January 1, 2000 I hear news reports of massive power outages around the world...and it's headed this way, I won't panic."

Now, imagine you are a DGI or a DWGI, and say it again.

Everyone WILL panic. Even the GI's. The difference is, GI's won't be out panic buying or looting, but you can bet their hearts will be beating faster...

As for it being a "10", IMO if every DGI or DWGI panics all at once ( a hundred million or so?), that would look an awful lot like the beginning of a "10" to me.

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), December 14, 1999.

Brian,

IMHO the end of March, or first two weeks of April will be the deciding point on the severity. This is because I feel we have to wait until the first quarter closing of the books, 90 day dunning notices and all the other stuff hits. This is the first major business cycle of the new year. After that I will make decisions as to how to proceed with the disposition of my accumulated stuff.

-- slammer (billslammer@yahoo.com), December 14, 1999.