Doomsayers Are Batting Zero

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Doomsayers Are Batting Zero

Y2K provides another chance for failed prophets of disaster

BY GEOFFREY TOMB
Mercury News Staff Writer

What if nothing happens?

What if after years, months, days, hours, minutes and final seconds of Chicken Little-ing, the world wakes up on Jan. 1 to discover the great Y2K disaster is a yawner?

Actually, there are eons of precedent for Armageddons that never happen. Fact is, ever since time began people have been predicting that it was about to end in a cataclysmic disaster.

And there is one common link to each and every one of the forecasts of global gloom and doom.

``They have all been wrong,'' said Professor Richard Landes, founder and director of the Center for Millennial Studies at Boston University. Landes, a professor of medieval studies, said hysteria in 1000 wasn't much different than it is today, although computer breakdown makes today's a more secular end than a heaven-sent doomsday.

Yet despite a 100 percent failure rate, disaster predictions keep on coming and people keep believing the worst, said Landes. Why? Because no one can see into the future.

``As a result, we want to know about it, we fear it, we use it as a depository for our hopes, and, when someone who claims to know it comes along, we are susceptible to their rhetoric.''

Here is a look at some of the best and brightest, or dumbest and dimmest, predictions of disaster in our recent times:

IBEN Browning, a 72-year-old climatologist from New Mexico, alarmed America's heartland when he predicted, more than a year in advance, that a record earthquake would strike within 48 hours of Dec. 3, 1990. It would hit along the New Madrid Fault in Missouri, last struck in 1811.

As the Big One approached, schools were dismissed, businesses closed, National Guard troops alerted. Hundreds fled their homes, and thousands from Mississippi to Illinois stocked up on food and water.

They even canceled the annual Christmas parade in Pine Bluff, Ark. And on Dec. 3?

Oh, never mind.

CLAIMING to be a channel from a round table that included Jesus, Buddha, Pope John XXIII, Christopher Columbus, King Arthur, Merlin and the ``Cosmic Master Ray-o-Light,'' Elizabeth Clare Prophet warned that Dec. 31, 1989, would be the world's last New Year's Eve. Nuclear war and economic collapse would occur when Russia attacked the United States.

Prophet gathered 2,000 followers on a 12,000-acre ranch near Yellowstone National Park in Montana, where they built underground shelters to be safe from nuclear incoming.

Many of the group closed bank accounts and paid $10,000 to guarantee themselves a haven underground. They called their enclave Glastonbury, after the place in Britain said to be the sanctuary of King Arthur. They also ate macrobiotically and wore purple on Thursdays.

When war did not erupt on New Year's, Prophet updated her doomsday to April 23, 1990. And what happened?

Oh, never mind.

THE appearance of comets are sure signs of pending disaster. Remember the 1997 mass suicide in San Diego, when 39 members of the Heaven's Gate cult killed themselves to shed their ``earthly containers'' to join a UFO tailgating the Hale-Bopp comet?

Less deadly was the worldwide fizzle experienced with the 1973-74 no-show of the Comet Kohoutek, which many feared would collide with Earth. Proclaimed as the Comet of the Century, so bright it would burn retinas and augur global catastrophe, the comet was a bust, barely visible. It is still known as the shy comet.

But none holds a candle to Halley's, a regular returnee every 76 years for the last 4.6 billion years. Halley's, last here in 1986, has been an ill omen for centuries. In 1910 it was suggested that all life would end when Earth passed through the comet's tail because the tail was made of deadly space gas. Thousands rushed out to purchase newly marketed anti-comet pills and gas masks.

Out in Oklahoma a group called the Select Followers determined that the only way to save the planet was to reach back to a tried-and-true method from another time and sacrifice a virgin. A candidate was actually chosen until police got wind of the plan and stepped in. And when the comet came?

Oh, never mind.

MORE recently, Paris designer Paco Rabanne, modeling himself more on Descartes than Chanel, said he had interpreted Nostradamus, dead since 1566 but still cited for his prescience. Rabanne said he learned that Paris would be destroyed at 11:22 a.m. on Aug. 11, 1999. The City of Light would be extinguished in flames by the crash of Russia's Mir space station during that day's solar eclipse, Rabanne claimed. A poll showed 10 percent believed this.

Rabanne fled to Brittany. A group of 1,000 unfortunates left behind gathered Aug. 11 at his Left Bank boutique and counted down to 11:22 a.m. ``Caramba! No Paco-lypse,'' shouted the champagne-sipping celebrants as the appointed hour came and went.

Rabanne, perhaps prodded by his bankers or his PR people, recanted.

``I made a massive mistake, a huge blunder, and now I publicly apologize,'' he said, just back from the country. ``I wish I'd never opened my mouth.''

``You know, I don't smoke, don't take drugs and I don't even drink,'' said the 65-year-old Rabanne. He did admit, however, that he is the reincarnation of an ancient Egyptian priest and an 18th-century prostitute in the court of Louis XV. And how did he know that?

Oh, never mind.

GARLAND, TEXAS, was the locale chosen for Chen Heng-ming who went there with 150 followers of God's Salvation Church. Chen, who said Garland sounded like Godland to him, predicted that at 10 a.m. March 31, 1998, God would descend via a flying saucer and save those who repented their sins. The rest would fry. Touchdown was to be at 3513 Ridgedale Drive in Garland, Texas, 75041.

``I guarantee this on my life,'' Chen said.

He promised a sign would come at 12:01 a.m. on March 24 via his television. When that didn't happen, Chen told his followers to regard his forecast for the 31st as ``nonsense.''

Chen moved on to Lockport, N.Y., and stayed in the doomsday biz. The new predicted final, final end is ``sometime late in 1999.''

Tick, tick, tick. . . .


Mercury News researcher Marcia Gordon contributed to this report.


Contact Geoffrey Tomb at gtomb@sjmercury.com or at (408) 920-5692.



-- Mystery Man (mysterious@man.org), December 13, 1999

Answers

If Y2K wasn't so damn serious this article would be great toilet paper if I run out after rollover. A shame so many people will be shocked and hurt believing the stupid.

-- PJC (paulchri@msn.com), December 13, 1999.

This article is at least a year old.

Mike

======================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), December 13, 1999.


Hey Mystery Man,here's the deal...

Oh, never mind!

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), December 13, 1999.


Mystery Man, thanks for yet another good article. Seems apparent that the doom crowd doesn't like to hear about the record when it comes to doom and gloom.

-- Bad Company (johnny@shootingstar.com), December 13, 1999.

What does this have to do with a computer problem? I don't see the connecton.

-- JoseMiami (caris@prodigy.net), December 13, 1999.


IF Y2K turns out to be a society killer, one of the things that I won't miss is "clever" writers like Mr. Tomb (apt!) filling pages and pages of perfectly good dead trees with this crap. However, I suppose it's a small price to pay for clean water and gas heat.

Is "Mystery Man" Y2K Pro trying somehow to make a point? He thinks he's clever too, and I won't miss him either.

-- (dot@dot.dot), December 13, 1999.


Now you tell me mystery man. You're too late. I already fixed my code. Stupid me.

-- Larry (cobol.programmer@usa.net), December 13, 1999.

Hmmmm......I'm sure there were doomsayers for:

The Roman empire, the Carthagenian civilization, the Assyrians, the Babelonians, the various Chinese dynasties that fell, the Mayans, the Incans, the Aztecs, the Toltecs, the Mound Builders, the Great Kingdoms of Africa, the Egyptians, blah, blah, blah.

Maybe before the crashes came for real, there were doomsayers, pleading their case.

Someone said, "Oh, never mind"...

Let no man think he stand, lest he fall.

Kook

-- Y2Kook (Y2Kook@usa.net), December 13, 1999.


Well, you know, every once in a while I feel silly for all the preps. But then I think about my kids, and I say it's got to be done.

I don't jump on apocalyptic bandwagons, and I don't feel Y2K is the apocalypse either. I do think it's serious enough, and real enough to warrant preparation.

That's all.

-- Duke 1983 (Duke1983@AOL.com), December 13, 1999.


The same could be said for all the idiot bleeding hearts. They release violent felons back into society with their "predictions" that they are now cured and responsible people. News flash, another person killed or raped by the so called "cured person".

At least doomies predictions are mostly benign.

Either way people always get things wrong, doomer or polly, big WHOOP!!!

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), December 13, 1999.



Seems that Mr. Tomb is fairly new to the problem. It's rare to hear from someone with such a poor misunderstanding at this stage.

Oh, sorry -- he IS a mainstream journalist. (We shouldn't make fun of the mentally challenged).

-- TA (sea_spur@yahoo.com), December 13, 1999.


...make that poor understanding ...

-- TA (sea_spur@yahoo.com), December 13, 1999.

y2k has nothing to do with Armmegeddon as far as I can tell. No one is asking y2k preppers to drink poison Kool aid our give away our cash. Most people live in an area that has a moderate risk for disaster. These supplies ,at least in our case, are useful. 4 day power outages are common here. The generator and so forth come in mighty handy. Why would you ridicule that?

-- morgan (bitbybit@eoni.com), December 13, 1999.

Just because you have not yet died thusfar in your lifetime, does that mean you never will? Hmmmm?

-- Ludi (ludi@rollin.com), December 13, 1999.

In case no one has figured it out yet, Mystery Man is our beloved Y2K Pro!!

-- SgtSchultz (SgtHansSchultz@stalag13.com), December 13, 1999.


I have to laugh when reading this thread.

Here one person points out that there are some delusioned individuals who think that there will be an Apocalypse... "any day now".

We all know that no matter how hard to try, you CANNOT convine these people otherwise. There are several examples of people being so blinded by the fear, uncertainty and doubt that they will throw away their lives. All upon some empty suspicions and "gut feelings".

And I laugh when I read through this thread and see those people, for real, right here in front of me. Splendid in their ignorance and majestic in their dedication to some moldy old story in the bible that was written describing something that already took place, and not something that was yet to come. As some of you may know, John the baptist wrote Revelations as present tense story on his island of exile. It was never meant to be a prophecy of the future.

No, no, no, NO NO NO they scream. The computers WILL fail!!! it has been PROPHESIZED!!! Revelations, indian medicine men, snake handlers... they SAY and we MUST BELIEVE. Damn reality and full speed ahead into INSANITY!!

It's almost unbelievable. If I didn't see it right here on my screen I would never have suspected it was so real.

Man oh man, no wonder pyschiatrists have so much business these days. They are obviously treating multiple cases of the Casandra Syndrome as we approach the new millennium. You know, that disease that afflicts people and makes them think they have knowledge of a future Doomsday scenario but are helpless to *convince* anyone, thereby punishing themselves and inflicting some sort of guilt trip as they live and watch in horror as everyone is oblivious to the "danger".

Classic pyschology around here. If nothing else this forum would make a great Thesis for some first year abnormal pyschology students. Ah you see, there IS some good to come of Y2K yet.

-- (watching@in. awe), December 13, 1999.


This article demolishes a straw man of its own creation.

The better analogy is Winston Churchill. For years from the mid- thirties (1936 for sure and maybe earlier) on he ranted and raved as an MP, about the threat of Hitler's Germany, in a vain attempt to wake up the DGI's of his time. Guess what the typical Brit thought of him????

Even as late as the Munich Pact when Neville Chamberlin enjoyed great popularity he stated that the choice was between war and shame and now with that Pact they would have both.

Did he read tea leaves or commune with spirits??? HELL NO. He had a solid understanding of human nature and had read "Mein Kampf" and had access to who knows what.

Now in our time when the RDGI's are the majority I ask; "Since the cause of Y2K was fundamentally a manifestation of human nature (taking the easy short-cut) why is it that very few assume that human nature will not be manifested in our attempt to fix everything? Think of issues like procrastination or inability to perceive serious issues or arrogance in not getting additional help etc. etc. etc. Now take a glance at Capers Jones software metrics with your Churchill eyes. If the metrics don't give you cause for pause then without meaning to be insulting IMHO you are as dumb as a door-post.

See you after the rollover. >/Rant mode<

-- Dana (A_Non_O_Moose@xxx.com), December 13, 1999.


Some of us knew from day one that we would be sticking our necks out and making ourselves targets for ridicule from those closest and dearest to us. But what had to be done we have done, because not taking steps would have been criminal negligence. I am perfectly prepared to be wrong. (Indeed, I do hope it turns out to be just a bump in the road.) I love my family, and I have done everything in my somewhat limited power to protect them. THE FAT LADY HASN'T SUNG YET! If all proves to be a dud a few months down the track, I shall get on with my life. I will be older, but no, I won't be any wiser in one sense, because I would do it all over again, gladly. Just this time I wouldn't try to warn ANYBODY including my family. I would keep my head down, look dumb, and quietly go for it. May the good Lord help us all. God Bless!

-- Sad Aussie (nospam@thanks.gone.com.au), December 13, 1999.

Y2K was NOT a manifestation of human nature, and anyone who thinks so is not approaching the subject with a clear mind.

The Year 200o Problem arose when programmers used a two digit YY field to epxress the year because memory was costly and they needed to conserve space wherever possible.

Saying that Y2K is a manifestation of human frailty is as absurd as saying that NASA is stupid for not covering the shuttle in sheets of lead.

Engineering is not an exact science, and it is rarely perfect. But one thing is clear, if cost was not an issue when programmers first began coding the date as MM/DD/YY then the Year 2000 Problem would have never been born. Cost is always an issue, but cutting corners and being spendthrift does not imply a lack of intelligence.

But I guess everyone here also buys the most expensive car and fills it with the most expensive gasoline too, right? Because heck, otherwise you'd just be stupid... right?

-- (enough@myths.about Y2K), December 13, 1999.


Uh, "watching", you need to go back and re-read with far better comprehension. Your scholarship lacks a certain amount of attention to detail.

John the Baptist was Jesus' cousin. Dude took on King Herod and literally "lost his head". Was extremely dead by the time The Book of Revelation (NOT "Revelations") was written.

The Apostle John is sometimes called "the Revelator". Perhaps that's what you meant?

Sing it now:

"Tell who's that writin'? John the Revelator. Tell me who's that writin'? John the Revelator. Tell me who's that writin'? John the Revelator. Wrote the Book of the Seven Seals." --- Robert Johnson, John the Revelator

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.com), December 13, 1999.


Fair's fair. I had a sneakly feeling that the Robert Johnson credit was not quite right when I posted, so I checked. Sure 'nough: it was Son House who wrote John the Revelator, not Robert Johnson. Both greats of the blues, but not hardly the same man.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.hid), December 13, 1999.

Okay then, John the Revelator. The song remains the same. It was story about the present, and not a representation of a future prophecy.

-- (watching@in. awe), December 14, 1999.

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