Y2K Poll Shows U.S. Manufacturers Confident

Updated 1:22 AM ET December 11, 1999

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As many as 93 percent of U.S. manufacturers are confident that the Year 2000 computer glitch will have almost no impact on their companies, according to a poll released on Friday by the National Association of Manufacturers.

Only 4 percent of respondents at the association's member companies said they expected significant disruption by Y2K, the design flaw that could trip up ill-prepared computers when computer clocks roll over on Jan. 1, 2000.

The survey, the last in a series, polled 100 respondents from Nov. 17 through Dec. 4. It was carried out by Edward Yardeni, chief global economist and investment strategist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York.

Yardeni, who has been famously pessimistic by proclaiming a 70 percent risk that Y2K could spark a global recession, said he still worried about the readiness of overseas vendors.

But, he said in a statement distributed by the manufacturers' association, "This is clearly good news, suggesting there might be fewer weak links in domestic supply chains."

The survey found 94 percent of respondents had nearly completed their preparations, including testing. Seventy-seven percent said they were on schedule, up from 66 percent in June. Only 6 percent reported they were behind schedule.

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Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), December 11, 1999

Answers

I did not have sex with that woman, Miss Lewinski.

Read my lips: There will be no new taxes.

There is a new paradigm in establishling the worth of a company's stock.

The FAA is 100% Y2K compliant

The manufacturing sector is 94% finished with their Y2K work.

Santa Clause will pay you a visit on the evening of December 24th.

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Every industry, in every region, in every country will be adversely effected by the Y2K problem.

Test: Choose the most likely correct statement. .

-- TA (sea_spu@yahoo.com), December 11, 1999.

If Yardeni did this survey, why is it released by the National Association of Manufacturers, along with their own statement? Why doesn't Yardeni release it? Could NAM have funded it? If so, who pays the piper calls the tune. Any survey funded by NAM will "find" just what NAM wants to find, or it won't get released.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 11, 1999.

I look like NAM has reported just the data that applies to Manufacturing companies and put a positive spin on it. For example, "94 percent of respondents had nearly completed their preparations, including testing". Why didn't they mention the percentage that had actually completed their preparations? It also helps to have a cooperative reporter.

-- Dave (dannco@hotmail.com), December 12, 1999.

Hey there Flint,

Thanks for using "If so, who pays the piper calls the tune." I don't recall having heard that before, but it is certainly pertinent in the world of self reported Y2K compliance. This is precisely what has most of us worried.

-- TA (sea_spur@yahoo.com), December 12, 1999.

Well, to paraphrase Jack a bit, y2k remediation cannot be completed. You can get closer and closer forever, but Zeno's paradox applies for real. As Ed Yourdon has quoted a couple of times, you know when you've finished testing when you run out of time. There's no other way.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), December 12, 1999.