I'm a doomer. I want to be wrong about the infrastructure. I want to be very wrong.

Three weeks from today, if I am, I will re-post this very heading using my real name.

I pray I have that opportunity.

Best Wishes,

Someone Some Once Knew

-- Someone Some Once Knew (someone@once.com), December 11, 1999

Answers

Okay, you're on!

-- Hokie (nn@va.com), December 11, 1999.

Wrong in mind is not wrong in heart. Unless heart follows mind.

-- Cloud William (ours@gain.com), December 11, 1999.

If you think you will know how bad Y2K will be in only three weeks, then you do not understand Y2K. We won't know the truth about Y2K until February at least. If I were you I'd hold off on any pronouncements until then.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 11, 1999.

Then if February you can tell us that it will be March or April before things really come to the forefront.........

In the meantime we can expect to be given two or three more dates for the impending asteroid that will doom us all............

Not to forget the 'increase in earthquakes' (hahahahahahahaha......we've already debunked that fallacy) that will get us all shortly.

If Y2k is very serious we will see enough in January to know. If those pesky embedded chips are as deadly as some would have us believe, there is no reason why they should wait for a few months to kill us all.....the other stuff is peanuts in comparison and bad code is being repaired on a regular basis, Y2K or no Y2k.

-- Craig (craig@ccinet.ab.ca), December 11, 1999.

Why do we want to know real names?

-- (ladybuckeye_59@yahoo.com), December 11, 1999.

Someone Some Once Knew (someone@once.com) is really John Koskinen. He's a total doomer.

What a kidder!!!

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), December 11, 1999.

Craig, if I were only half as stupid as you seem to be, I would never let anyone know by posting the kind of idiotic drivel that you post here. Anyone who understands the nature of the systemic threat posed by Y2K will also understand the compounding of errors and the cascading consequences of massive data corruption, and will also understand that this could take at least a month, perhaps two, before it becomes a global catastrophe.

We will know in February whether we'll still be functioning in March. What a maroon.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), December 11, 1999.

IMHO -- We will never know how much of what the future brings is due to CDC, how much is due to people's reaction to their perceptions of it, or how much is due to exploitation of the problems it will cause by governments and intelligence agencies.

CDC presents a unique opportunity to exploit both real and percieved problems. In particular it presents an opportunity to exploit peoples perceptions that there might be problems. If at the same time there are REAL problems so much the better for those who wish to destabilize their enemys.

The issue is not simply a technology problem. It is social, industrial, technical, financial, and strategic in nature. Some problems will really occur because of technical failures, some will occur because of people's reactions to those failures. Some technical failures will be exploited by intelligence agencies with the hope of fueling the failures which occur due to people's reactions.

If you think that you will ever know what really happened, you haven't been paying attention long enough. For example, what really happened to Foster? Do you KNOW FOR SURE that is what happened? What really happened at WACO? Do you KNOW FOR SURE? Was the Kennedy assination a conspiracy? Do you know for sure? You are (and have been for a very long time) completely at the mercy of people who DECIDE for you what you should know about. I am not saying that I have the answers to any of these questions, because I am sure of one thing only, I do not. I have the answers I have been given by OTHER people. Those other people had their own opinions and agendas that went along with what they choose to tell me.

We will never know for sure unless it is marked by total disaster on January first, which IMHO is highly unlikely.

During the '74 oil shortage, my Grandfather was an engineer for Santa Fe. He told me once that before the shortage, he would haul several tankers full of crude into the refinery at Borger Texas every day and haul out about as many tankers of diesel and gasoline. He said that DURING the shortage he still hauled in the same number of tankers of crude but did not haul out any tankers of fuel. All the while he was watching the indicators on the storage tanks indicate more and more crude was stored on the site. Finally when the price of fuel got where the big boys wanted it, the fuel started pouring out of the refinery again.

You figure it out how much you are going to know and when you will know it.

-- (...@.......), December 11, 1999.

Add me to the list of folks who will be THRILLED to say I WAS WRONG on this forum, posting my entire name, city and state! I would be tickled pink to say that!

I really really really really really really want to be wrong on this. I do.

-- preparing (preparing@home.com), December 11, 1999.

"Craig, if I were only half as stupid as you seem to be, I would never let anyone know by posting the kind of idiotic drivel that you post here."

Cody; Craig is correct.There is no way around this. If you thought that the effects would be felt after 1 Jan 00, and they aren't; then you are wrong. Case closed. If you thought that the problem would be more complicated than that [and so stated] we will have to wait.

best wishes,,,,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), December 11, 1999.

http://cnn.com/SPECIALS/weblinks/hln/y2k/part1/index.html

[snip]

Companies shouldn't expect all Y2K problems to show up on January 1.

According to Sen. Bob Bennett (R-Utah), "It's going to take several months for the whole thing to play out. And if we are in trouble, it will have to cascade and build over a period of several months and we won't really know until March or April of 2000."

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), December 11, 1999.

Man, that Craig is one smart dude. You see, even though Cody said "February", he NEVER ACTUALLY SAID WHAT YEAR!!!

Glad you caught that, Craig. You really know how to flush out these scaremongers, yessir.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), December 11, 1999.

I don't care what your name is, it doesn't matter to me nor does it mean anything to me because I do not personally know you. And it will not matter to me if you post that you were wrong 3 weeks from now. No one will really care, I'll get on with my life and I won't look back. This is not a flame, it's a matter of fact.

-- ~~~~~~ (~~~@~~~.xcom), December 11, 1999.

Even though you already know this, I just thought I'd throw in my two cents worth. Some things will seem obvious to even a moron after the turn of the year, other stuff will be subtle, slowly but surely corrupting the data we all depend on. It's going to be a mess, I'm not happy, nor looking forward to it. One last thing, Please, Please make me wrong about this, I would really prefer to be the moron for understanding how things work and be totally off-base on my assumptions.

-- Michael (michaelteever@buffalo.com), December 11, 1999.

"I'm a doomer. I want to be wrong about the infrastructure. I want to be very wrong. Three weeks from today, if I am, I will re-post this very heading using my real name".

As others have pointed out that would be "premature"....Sure, some stuff will go wrong on the 1st but I've always doubted it would be enough to push us over the edge.

I'm more afraid of the cumulative effects of shortages, the potential fuel situation, people's reactions and terrorism. Really expect things to be worse in June than Febuary. It will take a while for all the glitches to make themselves apparent. Our plan here is to maintain a strong preparedness posture thru the year 2000, and relax a little, maybe, a year from now. I'd give my left, uh, spherical appendage, to be wrong and have a dandy profitable new year. But between the digital stuff, the oil ministers and Bin Laden....I wouldn't bet on it.

-- Don Kulha (dkulha@vom.com), December 11, 1999.

Craig: greerings to our neighborhood government shill.

If the data turns putrid then by the end of the 1st quarter the dice should pretty much be cast. Also if there is a problem with oil we will see obscenely high prices, enough to tank the "goldilocks" economy by February. January is time to pick up some more water and cheap prep's from individuals that don't understand, Like say Craig.

-- Squid (Itsdark@down.here), December 11, 1999.