Y2K Danger Index, Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic!!!greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
http://www.urbansurvival.com/y2k.htm Please go to the above URL to see the charts and the rest of the analysis.
The Titanic's Deck Chairs?
There's pretty good evidence that the Federal Reserve is behind a lot of the movement in the markets in the past couple of weeks. Because of the unfortunate confluence of events - running out of growth and running into Y2K at the same time - the Fed really has had no option but to print money like crazy. To what end? I mean why would they do such a thing?
The answer is simple: think seriously about what happens should the largest most prosperous country on the planet suddenly panic? If consumer spending stopped - if there were runs on banks - people hoarding food, weapons, fuel - well, you have the picture right? What would you do in either Bill Clinton's place - or more challenging - Dr. Greenspan's?
The policy options available to our leaders are very limited.
The only answer is print money - and deploy that money is such ways as to minimize panic. Where would I spend the money if I were given the task?
- I would print more than $70 billion in cash and make sure that everyone knew it. [They did it, too.]
- I would announced that despite the concerns about oil supplies, the U.S. government would sell off oil from its strategic reserves in order to make sure refineries didn't run out of product - and life would continue as it has - dominated by traffic jams from too many cars! [They did it, too.]
- I would keep the price of gold down by selling into the gold markets at least through the first of the year. [They did it, too.]
- I would act as though nothing was going on - and would make fun of anyone who challenged that notion. [They did it, too.]
- I would set up contingency plans with draconian powers should my strategy fail. [They did it, too.].
- I would ignore the markets which will shoot ahead as all that extra liquidity dumps into the market. [They did it, too.]
- I would pray like hell that no enemy of this great country sees the moves and uses this window of manipulation to set off panic by a major coordinated terrorist attack - or worse. I would do this by having my friends (Australia and England) spy on my citizens while I (returning the favor) spy on theirs through a huge computer system called Echelon. [They did it, too.]
(See notes below.)
Then I would sit back and watch my results. The Y2K Danger Index is a pretty good indication of how all this is working - and to date - pretty damn well, I'd have to say. You may not agree with the actions of America's leadership, but when you think about it logically, the policy options are always limited given the narrow outcomes that you want. markets - and people that drive them - fall apart if expectations change too quickly.:
-- Helium (Heliumavid@yahoo.com), December 11, 1999
They made the wrong decision at every turn.
They should have told the truth from the very start and never strayed.
They should have made our vast surpluses of goods available at cost and helped distribute them.
They should have written off their losses while they still had functioning means to do so.
They should have daily encouraged community and personal involvement.
They should have thought better of their peers.
Their peers will not think well of them.
-- snooze button (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 11, 1999.
"They should have..."
"They should have..."
Yeah, but they DIDN'T!!!
-- King of Spain (email@example.com), December 11, 1999.
No, they didn't, but I agree with Snooze. They should have been honest. But they were out of the habit.
-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), December 11, 1999.
Given that Y2K is very much an international problem and given that international remediation is far behind that of the USA and closest allies, it may come to pass that all the .gov actions have been nothing more than rearranging the deck chairs of the Titanic.
All that is needed to upset the apple cart is an international slowdown/disruption in bank/currency transactions, trade or oil.
Our systems may be remediated enough to measure and report the coming disaster.
Y2K is global and other countries problems will have serious ramifications here.
-- Bill P (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 11, 1999.
There was a point at which the Titanic would hit the iceberg, no matter what was done, and there was a point at which the government could not alter the course we are on for the end of the year.
As in all fiat money systems a time arrives when, as the result of a major mistake, the government attempts to alleviate the crisis by printing money. It has not worked before and it will not work this time.
This has occurred a couple of times in the history of the USA and history is about to repeat itself.
-- ghost (fading into email@example.com), December 11, 1999.
I really like that, what you said, Mara,...about honesty being a habit...very nice.
And...just for the sake of the Titanic analogy, there was a great deal of familiar hubris (familiar in the sense of it being very much like what we see these days) surrounding the wreck of the Titanic. There was a "Transatlantic record" to beat...the captain of the ship was arrogant, buying the PR from the shipping company about the ship's invincibility. There were some problems prior to striking the iceberg like, including but not limited to: not enough lifeboats for crew and passengers, and a fire in the engine room, a distracted captain. Even the wreck of the Titanic was a complicated multi-system problem...people and machines combined, as we do, with failure to attend to details and possibilities.
Won't ramble on...just got back online after a hard drive crash,...nice to be able to discuss/comment/applaud/nail-bite,...
-She in the sheet, upon the hilltop,...
-- Donna (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 11, 1999.
If one takes the time to study the facts about something that everyone else takes for granted, there are times when one realizes that perhaps the conventional wisdom missed something.
Case in point - The HMS Titanic!
Biggest myth is that the Titanic sank because it crashed into an iceberg. The actual fact is the iceberg damage was minimal, the Titanic actually only grazed it. There were, if my memory serves, 4 gashes - each about 3 to 4 inches wide and approximately 12 feet long. All of these gashes were confined to the hull area of a single cargo deck compartment. Fully flooded, the weight of the intruded water would have merely raised the waterline on the exterior hull by about 2 feet while creating a general 2-5 degree list.
What in accurate fact sank the Titanic was the failure of thousands of incorrectly installed and/or ill-fitting rivets caused by incompetent and/or lazy workman, sloppy attention to safety procedures by the 'down-side' crew (failure to close several critical watertight doors on cargo level 2 immediately following the collision, most probably due to lack of training which lead to crew panic), and most importantly a fundamental design flaw (original design called for double hull due to length of the keel, but was reworked into a single hull design to save money.
Interesting side note ... all ships, both nautical and aeronautical, are designed in pairs, though not always built simultaneously, the core design and construction are exact duplicates of each other.
Take away the Titanic's luster and extravagent decor - and you have her sister ship - the HMS Luisitania .... now where have we heard THAT name before.
The point to all this is - the HMS Titanic tragedy is a very apt metaphor for the y2k disaster.
-- hiding in plain (sight@edge. of no-where), December 11, 1999.
The problem with their plan is that they have assuaged everyone to the point that now when they want a wee little prepping because of the seriousness of the most recent report on water and sewage, no one will take it seriously even if its is reported on CNN.
Go to sleep!! Water and sewage!!! Sewage!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Sewage!!!! I love my high rise living, but what do I do with all this SH#$.
-- d----- (email@example.com), December 11, 1999.
A little technical terminology problem here. When we talk about printing money we are NOT talking about "printing" CASH DOLLARS. NOR are we talking about releasing cash dollars into circulation like so many mass distributed coupons in the paper of a Sunday Morn.
The cash dollars in "reserve" in the warehouses have NOTHING to do with the liquidity being generated now with the Greenspan repos, and the other liquidity increases. THOSE greenbacks are in reserve to be used as the sheeple decide to turn their electronic cash into physical dollars. There is NO IMPACT on liquidity from these physical dollars.
We need to keep this straight.
-- Chuck, a night driver (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 11, 1999.
Panic is an emotion that left unchecked, can harm more than harm needs to be.....undoubtedly, we have entered a scary arena..because none of us know the true effects in a few weeks. If the government is doing all they can to forestall a panic and self-fulfilling prophecy, I see no harm in that.
The probable cause of Y2K is exacerbated because of the new millenium, the overinflated stock market, and a host of other things....but to consider that a bunch of terrorists will move in during this time....if it is as bad as some feel it will be...a bunch of terrorists will have a crazed and scared public on their hands...what would be the point? It's stupid...really. If Y2K affect this country, then the rest of the countries will be in far worse shape...because they haven't the means and capital to prevent it. they spent no money...
I think the effects of Y2K will be ....who knows?
-- rickoshade (email@example.com), December 11, 1999.
Small point...it was the RMS TITANIC, not the HMS Titanic :).
She was a carrier of the transatlantic Royal Mail, which gave her the automatic designation of "Royal Mail Ship" TITANIC; she was not one of Her Majesty's warships, which "Her Majesty's Ship" signifies.
Let's keep those deckchairs correctly arranged, even tho' we're sinking too...:)
-- John Whitley (firstname.lastname@example.org), December 12, 1999.